Article estimates Bitcoin halving date in 2020

Although many people say that Bitcoin will be halved next June, but they are not clear about the specific halving time. This article will use data statistics and estimation methods to calculate the specific halving time next year for your reference. .

Modeling

Speaking of halving bitcoin in 2020, we must review the halving in 2016. The halving time in 2016 is July 10, Beijing time. The first half of the block was dug by Yuchi, officially marking Halving is complete.

Although Bitcoin is designed to produce a block every 10 minutes, but because the computing power is dynamic, especially before halving, the computing power is generally growing, so the halving may be earlier than expected, which is also Estimates are one of the key factors in halving.

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We need to calculate the growth rate of Bitcoin computing power in the time before halving in 2016, and compare it with the growth of computing power this year, compare the deviation, and insert it into the required time. As a correction parameter, we finally get the specific halving time.

calculation process

Calculate the average change in Bitcoin hashrate this year

From January 1, 2019 to November 22, 2019, the average difficulty increased by 3.91%

From January 13, 2015 to December 7, 2015, the average difficulty increased to 2.56%

Because Bitcoin's development environment is different, it can be concluded that the current rate of increase in computing power is 52.7% higher than the last increase.

From January 13, 2015 to December 7, 2015, the number of blocks was 48384, the estimated time was 336 days, and the actual time was 328 days, which shortened the time by about 2.4%, which is about 8 days.

From January 1, 2019 to November 22, 2019, the number of blocks was 48339, the estimated time was 335 days, and the actual time was 325 days, which shortened the time by about 3.0%, which is about 10 days.

Before halving

Before halving in 2016 From December 7, 2015 to July 19, 2016, the number of blocks was 34,272, and the difficulty increased by 6.34%

The estimated time is 238 days, and the actual time is 225 days. The time is shortened by 5.7%, which is about 13 days.

It is estimated to be halved in 2019. We assume that the growth rate of computing power this time will increase by about 52.7%, that is to say, the growth rate of computing power will be 9.68% from November 22 to halving next year.

The drawing is as follows:

Add the trend line and do a one-time fit of the data to get the formula y = 131.22x + 4.7301

Finally, bringing 9.68% into x, we get y = 17.42, which is 17 days, which is our estimated correction factor.

Based on the block height of 604800 on November 22 this year, when the next halving is required, 25200 blocks will be needed, which is estimated to be 175 days. After subtracting the estimated correction factor, the estimated number of days will be 158 days. .

In other words, near April 28 next year, Bitcoin may be halved in days.

Note: This article does not consider the BCH halving before halving. The time change caused by the miner's switching of computing power will have a certain deviation.

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