Comment: When Ding Crab meets PlusToken, is it possible to invest in metaphysics?

In 1992, Hong Kong TVB broadcasted a TV series starring Zheng Shaoqiu, "The Great Era", and the villain character "Ding Crab" made huge profits by shorting the Hang Seng Index Futures to the stock market when the stock price plummeted.

Since then, as long as there are TV dramas, movies, and even variety shows starring Zheng Shaoqiu, the Hang Seng Index or A shares will fall to varying degrees, causing greater losses to shareholders.

Paradoxically, the two things that seem to be out of reach by eight poles have been fulfilled more than 30 times in the past 20 years.

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"As soon as Ding Crab comes out, the stock market drops"

The term "Ding Crab Effect" also spread widely and became a "golden rule" spread among investors, while Zheng Shaoqiu, an autumn official who never bought stocks, was innocently put on the hat of "the stock market plague".

Just like the octopus brother who can't play, he was crowned "forecast emperor" with 8 World Cup predictions.

"Investment" was originally an absolutely rational decision-making behavior.

Everyone who participates in investment is basically regarded as "the dragon and the phoenix among the people". IQ and financial quotients have crushed the streets of ordinary people. Why face the unexpected investment results, but the rationality of these smart people has disappeared, and they will be crowned with " Far-fetched, nonsense or even funny. "

01

In the past six months, the digital asset market has seen such an injustice-"PlusToken".

Similar to the "Ding Crab Effect", almost every time the market of the digital asset market plummets, some people attribute the reason to "PLusToken hit the market"

PlusToken has properly become a back-bladder. Small ordinary retail investors, authoritative industry media, and even data analysis agencies such as Chainalysis have tried to analyze the decline in digital asset prices and the correlation between PlusToken.

PlusToken is a "Ponzi scheme" that attracts investors with high returns. It was exposed in June this year, taking away more than 3 million investors with digital assets worth more than 20 billion yuan, including more than 200,000 bitcoins. , More than 800,000 Ether, more than 26 million EOS, etc.

It stands to reason that PlusToken attracted over 20 billion new funds into the market and provided strong support for the market's rise. However, instead of thinking about its merits, instead of thinking about its evils, it is now very intriguing to impose some unnecessary charges on "PlusToken".

The reason why everyone is always accustomed to declining market prices is strongly related to PlusToken, mainly because: PlusToken still has huge amounts of funds outstanding, which is a potential "black swan" in the digital asset market.

According to the tracking data of the blockchain security company PeckShield, PLusToken currently only has a small amount of digital assets flowing into the exchange (more than 1,000 BTC, more than 20,000 ETH, and more than 1,000 EOS). Most of the numbers Assets remain in the hands of runners.

This amount of capital is estimated to be at least tens of billions, as a time bomb may explode at any time:

Or, after the market price rises to a certain price, the trader feels that the time is up and chooses to sell all the chips shortly to make a profit, which will make the market price bear a huge selling pressure and there will be a plunge;

Or, after PlusToken's judicial trial, its huge amount of digital assets were confiscated for low-price auctions, which would also bring greater downward pressure on the market.

Is this really the case? You deserve "PlusToken" too.

There are too many unstable factors in the digital asset market.

1) The "legal" supervision of local governments is strong. Don't say it's impossible, the United States has illegalized "gold" in history;

2) After Bitcoin is halved, the mining cost is higher than a series of "mine disasters" induced by the market;

3) When the tide of 1CO altcoins was eliminated and shuffled, a large number of Aircoin projects returned to zero.

You see, there may be too much thunder in the digital asset market. There is still too much, and PlusToken will not be the biggest one anyway.

In the recent period, the market has appeared many strange painting "doors". The market exploded first to destroy the air force, and then turned around to plunge into the army and kill multiple troops.

Such naked trading and harvesting have been put on the table, and I also expect analysts to analyze the K-line, KDJ, and MACD indicators.

The "loveliest" side of investors is that rising expectations can always give a lot of rational bullish factors.

For example, the scarcity value of Bitcoin in the context of international political and economic instability; the Bakkt exchange leads traditional capital into the digital asset market; the massive influx of Bitcoin ETFs after the SEC's approval and so on.

However, some irrational, nonsense, and even deceiving comments are always given to the fact of the decline, such as explanations such as PlusToken hitting the market and everyone using money during the Spring Festival.

A friend asked me about the next market trend. I said that the strange market of "painting the door" shows that even the big bookmakers hiding behind the scenes are "not calm".

Have you not realized that the logic of the market rise has completely changed?

02

Recently, the entire blockchain industry has presented a two-fold situation:

Leng was declining in the continuous shock of the digital asset market, and many investors were stuck again;

Hot in the industry, the concept of the blockchain is like the sky, the summit forums on various related topics have been held in succession. In addition to Ali, Tencent, Wanxiang and other nobles and nobles, many "old friends" also appeared in new clothes.

Behind this cold and hot, not only Feng Shui turns, but also indicates that the driving force of the next round of blockchain industry dividends has changed.

I have explained several changes in detail in the previous article "The" bottom logic "of the development of the 2020 blockchain industry has changed" .

Next, I will share the "change" behind this from the perspective of the market:

I. The era of brutal money in the digital asset market is over

The driving force behind the market price increase over the past 10 years is the premium effect of bitcoin as a scarce product when it is traded between new and old users.

If new users want to get chips, they can only buy from old users. Old users keep raising prices to sell, and new users continue to have people come to buy, the market price has skyrocketed.

Bitcoin has grown from a niche market with only a few thousand or tens of thousands of technical geeks around the world to a large market with 30 to 40 million users worldwide. Even if it is not a household name, it can be described as a Quartet. The exponential growth of the audience also led the market to rise tens of thousands of times.

Unfortunately, from the perspective of new Bitcoin addresses, new users in the digital asset market have not entered the market in the past two years. The market seems to be "aging" ahead of time. This has continued to rise and lost "fundamentals."

As for the reasons behind: 1. The central bank regulates the shrinking of market liquidity, users have less spare money to invest; 2. The 10-year long-distance running ca n’t find a suitable landing scene, and most people still choose to wait and see; 3. The market economy is in a downward trend People's livelihood is difficult, and earning money is generally difficult.

It can be predicted that before bitcoin mining is halved next year, the digital asset market will either have a thriving bitcoin situation, and the altcoins with thousands of coins will wither, or the market will quickly crash again after a rapid rise. This is the result of the stock market game.

Second, the threshold for digital asset market participation is already too high.

Some people may say that now there are only 40 million users and 7 billion people in the world. When the market appears to have a 10-fold increase in users, Bitcoin will rise to $ 100,000.

I appreciate such "optimism", why, how, when? Forgive me for sending you three-strike soul torture.

1) Among the 40 million people, one million people mine, and the mining cost is very high. In the early days, a GPU graphics card could dig hundreds of bitcoins a day. Now investing 300,400,000 to buy 100 ASIC miners, only one bitcoin can be mined a month, but the electricity cost is more than 50,000 yuan. Obviously, the competition in the mining market is now saturated, and it is difficult for new users to enter the market.

2) 10 million of the 40 million people speculate in coins, and the opportunity to make money by asymmetric information is gone. Recently, the domestic well-known public chain Nervos main line was launched. It is expected that such "halo" projects will increase 5-10 times. It is not a big problem. However, the fact is that the amount of chips released by Nervos public offering is too large. After the launch, tons of chips are waiting to be sold, and the project side is a clear stream and resolutely does not pull the disk. As a result, it can only fall below the issue price. Many star projects are facing the same dilemma, losing their wealth effect, and the motivation for users to enter the field to participate in the project is lost.

3) 10,000 out of 40 million do evil, and the original clean industry is stirred up. Many people outside the circle are prejudiced that the blockchain industry is a liar. Because self-media like me (WeChat public ID: liansg01) has not yet grown large, to show them the value of the blockchain, and a large number of ox ghost ghost snake blockchain mentors have already sharpened their hearts and penetrated into various markets. From the newcomers in the mainstream currency market to the uncle who sinks the market, almost all of them can be harvested. From the source, potential "new users" have been blocked.

03

A stark reality is that the market is "moving up" and needs new market turning points.

We should realize that pure speculation in the currency market does not work in the market environment. To break through, we must anchor the value and look at the opportunities of industrial layout:

1) Say goodbye to non-value digital assets: Except for digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, EOS, USDT stablecoin, any copycat air currency, do not understand, do not have any illusions. Over time, those altcoins will face the pressure of being bragged about expiration to be faced; the selling pressure of foundation fund lockout due to expiration; the long-term lack of liquidity pressure of transaction depth; large-scale users at the same time The run-up to collapse pressure to zero; and the pressure to run the community on behalf of the private key loss. In a word, stay away from speculative, non-value altcoins.

2) Focus on new channels for incremental users: Instead of focusing on “high-precision” technology optimization solutions such as public chain TPS and zero-knowledge proof privacy solutions, it is better to look at the expansion of the blockchain extension layer network. For example: the deployment and application of Lightning Network; the development of user habits for financial management needs of DeFi financial applications; the compliance and license of digital asset exchanges; and the cultivation of users of digital wallet private key management solutions; DApps Ecological game innovation, user operation, and other ecological operations. These are the starting points to lead the next wave of bull market in the blockchain industry.

3) Seeing new opportunities for the blockchain industry to land: It is foreseeable that in the next one or two years, PKI (Public Key Infrastructure) -based cryptographic underlying services and some public chain solutions will constitute a new blockchain industry. Infrastructure; technology solutions mainly based on the alliance chain will gradually find application possibilities in application layers such as supply chain finance, judicial evidence collection, digital identity, electronic bills, anti-counterfeiting, public welfare, public services, and social credit reporting.

Going further, it is a bit bragging. For example, combining 5G communication underlying technology, AI, Internet of Things, gene editing, brain-computer integration, etc. to create a new business ecology, constructing trusted computing, trusted trading systems, and so on.

04

There is a famous saying in economics: "Money is a veil covering the real economy." Blockchain technology integration industry to explore landing value is an inevitable trend of the times.

I firmly believe that blockchain technology will be another leap in production relations after the innovation of the three organizations of "currency, bonds, and joint-stock companies" in the development process of the human social system.

The essence of financial markets is the "irrational prosperity" fluctuations around the value of entities. Fluctuations are not terrible, what is terrible is a serious departure from value.

Looking at the more macro-cycle theory, all the chaos that the blockchain world is facing today is actually normal. All that is needed is the accumulation and evolution of time.

The first joint-stock company in the history, the British East India Company, whose trade prosperity was developed by the brutal colonization of the armed forces;

The Shanghai Stock Exchange opened in 1990, and stocks were introduced into the country. The stock index also experienced a huge fluctuation of 73% from 1429 points in six months.

Humans are often accustomed to seeing problems with linear thinking. They are too optimistic about a thing in the short term, and underestimate the speed of things in the long term.

The digital asset market, like the stock market, will also face a long period of chaos. But as a system innovation, after a long period of verification, trial and error, elimination, and evolution, it will eventually carry value and penetrate into all aspects of people's lives.

Until then, the digital asset market will be flooded with too many unknown risks and possibilities, and it will be difficult for us to judge a series of strange phenomena in this emerging market by the standards of mature markets. All we can do is raise our industry awareness and stay away from some obvious pitfalls and pits.

The famous physicist Newton once took a huge bonus to go to the stock market to try to obtain great returns in the stock market by virtue of his extraordinary intellect.

With a word from a big physicist, I will give it to you who are still in the digital asset market, erratic and can't find a direction.

Newton said: "I can work out the laws of celestial bodies, but I can't work out human madness."

Awareness evangelist of blockchain value, senior blockchain practitioner. There is no concept of tallness, no sparse technical description, only the most popular business, the most sensitive perspective, and the most unique insights. I am still a poor elementary school student in the blockchain industry. All the thoughts and thoughts in this article are broken thoughts. If you are in the circle, do n’t laugh. Welcome to discuss. Author's WeChat: tmel0211 WeChat public number: liansg01 If you need to reprint, please add me to WeChat to apply for a whitelist. If you agree with my point of view, you can also add me and pull you to join the on-chain audience communication group.

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