Crypto market weekly review (10.07-10.13) Bigtime attracts attention in gold trading, Gamefi trend heats up again.

Crypto Market Weekly Recap 10.07-10.13 - Bigtime Makes Waves in Gold Trading, Rekindling Gamefi Craze

A. Market Overview

1. Macro Liquidity

Monetary liquidity is tightening. Internationally, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has brought more uncertainty to the market, and inflation expectations have risen sharply with the rise in oil prices. The minutes of the Federal Reserve suggest divergent views on interest rate hikes before the end of the year, and US bond yields continue to decline, which is the main driving force behind the rebound in US stocks. The trend of major cryptocurrencies is relatively weaker than that of US stocks.

2. Overall Market Situation

Top 100 market capitalization gainers:

• LianGuai Daily | MetaMask has been relisted on the Apple App Store; JPEX involved in a case in Taiwan with an amount reaching tens of millions of Taiwanese dollars, has summoned singer Chen Lingjiu, the endorser.
• Decoding the competition between Ethereum Rollups, Solana, and Cosmos application chains
• Web3 Law｜Is recruiting people and earning commissions from cryptocurrency exchanges considered illegal gambling?

After the failure of BTC’s rebound this week, it returned to a downward trend, and BTC’s market dominance rose to 51%. The decline in ETH’s exchange rate and the sale of ETH by the Ethereum Foundation have undermined market confidence. The market revolves around gaming and Israeli concepts.

1. BIGTIME: A large-scale multiplayer role-playing game on the ETH chain created by the original founder of MANA, similar to The Legend of Zelda. The gold-making cycle of the game is fast, and it can be profitable in less than a day. If calculated according to the Ponzi scheme model, earning money from people who join later. It takes 5 days to break even and requires a 20% daily increase in the number of users; to break even in 0.5 days, it requires a 200% daily increase in the number of users, which is difficult to sustain in the long term. It may be short-term speculation because BIGTIME card game invitation codes are required, and it takes 3-5 days for withdrawal audits and KYC, so there is no significant selling pressure in the short term.

2. LQTY: It is a clone of the stablecoin protocol MakerDAO but more decentralized (only allows ETH as collateral), and its demand lies in the stablecoin LUSD. The protocol distributes 100% of its revenue to LQTY stakers. In the past month, the protocol’s revenue has grown by 90%, and the staking mining APR has reached 25%. The main uses of the decentralized stablecoin LUSD are earning interest on deposits, YFI vault mining, and AAVE collateral lending.

3. RNDR: It is a leading AI concept similar to decentralized NVIDIA GPUs. RNDR is an old project from 2017. Originally, the demand was for rendering, but in the future, it will mainly focus on AI and VR. In February 2023, the economic model was revised, with a maximum supply of 640 million and a circulating supply of 370 million. After 2024, the new issuance will be 9% annually, decreasing to 4% after 2028. Users need to burn an equivalent value of RNDR when paying for services. In the past month, $500,000 worth of RNDR has been burned, and demand has grown by 30% in the past three months.

4. ATOR: This new privacy project has risen several tens of times this year. ATOR uses Onion Network technology similar to a decentralized VPN and has 5 million daily active users. It will launch hardware mining similar to Helium, with a total market value of approximately $80 million.

3. BTC Market

1) On-chain Data

BTC is about 200 days away from the next halving. The market is experiencing a continuous state of token hibernation, with long-term holders reaching a historic high of over 14.86 million BTC, equivalent to 76% of the circulating supply that hasn’t been traded in the past 5 months. BTC trading volume has dropped to levels seen before the bull market at the end of 2020.

Stablecoins remain stable overall. The increase in USDT market cap indicates a trend of increased funding from Europe and Asia entering the market. However, the funds being transferred to exchanges are mostly in a wait-and-see attitude.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore uses the overall market cost as a basis to reflect the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it is in the top range; when the indicator is below 2, it is in the bottom range. MVRV has fallen below the critical level of 1, indicating that holders are overall in a loss-making state. The current indicator is 0.48, entering the recovery phase.

2) Futures Market

Funding rate: Neutral this week. Rates range from 0.05% to 0.1%, indicating a higher long leverage, which is a short-term top in the market; rates from -0.1% to 0%, indicating a higher short leverage, which is a short-term bottom in the market.

Futures open interest: BTC total open interest slightly declined this week, indicating continuous exit of mainstream funds.

Long/short ratio: 1.5. Market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is often a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 being fearful and above 2.0 being greedy. The long/short ratio data is highly volatile and has weakened in terms of reference.

3) Spot Market Situation

BTC rebound failed to break through the weekly resistance level and resumed its downward trend, expecting further decline until the end of November. There are 200 days left until the halving cycle in April 2024, and historically, the year after the halving is the bull market. Before the halving, BTC usually outperforms altcoins. It is recommended to gradually increase positions during the market downturn.

B. Market Data

1. Total Lock-up Amount on Public Blockchains

2. TVL Distribution on Various Public Blockchains

This week, the overall TVL dropped by nearly $3 billion, a decrease of 7.5%. At the end of September, the market experienced a brief rebound and breakthrough, but it did not stabilize and experienced a significant decline. This also verifies that the market did not see the end of the bear market just because the Ethereum ETF was approved by the SEC. This week, the TVL of the ETH chain dropped by over 11%, BSC chain dropped by 8%, Polygon chain dropped by over 12%, and BASE chain and OP chain both dropped by around 9%. All mainstream public chains declined, and after two weeks of calm market sentiment, it continued to enter a downward trend.

3. Lock-up Volume of Various Chain Protocols

1) ETH Lock-up Volume

2) BSC Lock-up Volume

3) Polygon Lock-up Volume

4) Arbitrum Lock-up Volume

5) Optimism Lock-up Volume

6) Base Lock-up Volume

4. ETH Gas Fee Historical Data

The on-chain transfer fee is approximately $0.42, Uniswap transaction fee is approximately $1.42, and OpenSea’s transaction fee is approximately $0.66. The gas usage and fees continued to decline this week. On October 8th, it reached the lowest point of 2023, indicating the continued downturn of the DeFi and NFT markets. In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap still occupies the top position, accounting for 10% of the entire market.

Five. Changes in NFT Market Data

1) NFT-500 Index

2) NFT Market Situation

3) NFT Trading Market Share

4) NFT Buyer Analysis

This week, except for DeGods, the floor prices of top blue-chip projects have experienced significant drops. BAYC dropped by 3.4%, MAYC dropped by 3.9%, Milady dropped by 8.3%, and Pudgy Penguins and Clone both dropped by over 10%. There hasn’t been a noticeable change in the total number of wallets and repeat buyers compared to the past two weeks. The overall sentiment in the NFT market remains low, and the number of first-time buyers has also declined to a certain extent. The NFT market urgently needs a significant positive catalyst to facilitate market recovery. The NFT-500 index has experienced a drop of nearly 60% compared to the past year.

Six. Latest Project Funding Status

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