Will the Middle East crisis overturn the prediction that BTC will reach a new high in 2024?

Could the current Middle East crisis potentially affect BTC's projected growth and prevent it from reaching a new high in 2024?

Author: Ibrahim Ajibade, Blockchain Analyst

Translation: Felix, LianGuaiNews

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) recently posted that the price of Bitcoin could surpass its previous all-time high of $61,000 in 2024. However, there is conflicting macro-event data from the recent Middle East crisis and the Bitcoin derivatives market.

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Despite optimism about the halving, the price of Bitcoin still faces pressure

On October 11, Binance added a Bitcoin halving countdown to its trading platform homepage. When announcing this news, CZ emphasized the historical cycles of Bitcoin, in which the price reached all-time highs during the previous three halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

Although Bitcoin bulls generally agree with CZ’s bullish sentiment, recent events have led to a short-term bearish market. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin bulls suffered a hit of over $25 million on October 11, resulting in 6 consecutive days of decline in the Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap on October 11 | Source: Coinglass

The liquidation heatmap provides an overview of accumulated positions in the cryptocurrency derivatives market that have been liquidated or closed within a specified period. The above graph shows Bitcoin at the top, with over $25 million worth of long positions (betting on Bitcoin price rise) liquidated on October 11. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also dropped by 2%, indicating investors are exiting the market rather than adding positions. If this trend continues, the spot market price of Bitcoin may fall to around $25,000 in the coming days.

Bears have the upper hand in Bitcoin

The price of Bitcoin started off strong this month and made several attempts to break the $28,000 resistance level. It is worth noting that Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D, which refers to the percentage of Bitcoin’s market capitalization in the entire cryptocurrency market) reached a four-month high of 51% during this process.

However, data from the derivatives market shows that the Israel-Palestine crisis has tilted the momentum towards the bears. During the period from October 7 to 11, long position holders in Bitcoin suffered more losses than short-sellers. Over $55 million worth of long positions were liquidated during this period.

Bitcoin Liquidation Chart | Source: Coinglass

The overall liquidation indicator measures the total value of long and short liquidations within a specified period of time.From the chart above, it can be seen that since the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis between Israel and Palestine, the shorts have been dominant for 5 consecutive trading days. As for the future, it remains to be seen whether leveraged long traders with positions below the current price will increase their buying to strengthen support levels and avoid further price decline.

BTC Price Prediction

According to current market data analysis, Bitcoin price may fall to around $25,000 in the next few days. However, based on the distribution data of current Bitcoin holders’ entry prices, the situation is not that bad. The data shows that the highest number of people bought Bitcoin near the level of $26,300. As shown in the chart below, 1.95 million addresses bought 811,310 Bitcoins at the highest price of $26,695. This price has strong support and may not fall below it. But if the shorts break through this support, Bitcoin could quickly drop to around $25,000.

Bitcoin Price Prediction | GIOM Data

On the bright side, if Bitcoin price can reclaim $30,000, the longs may regain control. However, in this case, 2.5 million addresses bought 1.06 million Bitcoins at an average price of $28,300. If they take profits and exit early, it could immediately trigger a bearish reversal in Bitcoin price. But if this resistance level cannot hold, the next stop may be the psychological resistance level of $30,000.

Related reading: Macro Review: September Core CPI Stable, Bitcoin Still Bullish

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