Cryptographic currency investment failure is a punishment for cognition

Many people feel sorry for Laszlo Hanyecz, how much 10,000 bitcoins are worth now. Human imagination is always very rich, always making decisions about what has happened now to confess the past.

Every time you enter the currency circle, you will be scared by the price of Bitcoin. I don’t know everyone. Caesar’s first time in the coin circle, the price of Bitcoin is about 6,800 yuan. It is too expensive to buy. A few, it is better to buy a cottage currency and there is a possibility of a hundred times more chances, perhaps because the comparison of the gas phase is good, in the early days of the bull market, a coin is starting to rise, almost every day, has been rising, buy today It will rise tomorrow. Maybe you will think, luck is good, the principal is much easier to make money. However, it has always been counter-intuitive, and it has not been smooth sailing. On the contrary, every pit has been stepped through, and it is too painful to believe that others have no self-thinking.

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The views of authoritative people are simply disaster-level for newcomers who may say that they do not have independent thinking skills.

Last night I watched a video six years ago. It was a group of people who supported Bitcoin industry and a group of so-called experts who opposed Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin a bubble or a real gold?

Bitcoin supporters camp:

1. At the time, Bitcoin China founder Yang Linke believed that Bitcoin was a digital asset and a virtual commodity, in line with the definition of the five ministries at the time.

2, the founder of China's first bitcoin hedge fund, Duan Hongbin thinks you believe in bitcoin, then bitcoin is valuable to you, if you don't believe in bitcoin, then bitcoin is for you not worth.

3. Han Dong did a profound research on the idea of ​​bitcoin production in the IT researcher of Oriental Securities Asset Management. According to Hayek's theory, money can be issued in private currency, and it is considered that the price of bitcoin is not man-made. It is a liberalized market. The value of bitcoin depends on how many people use him, not because The skyrocketing plummeted.

Bitcoin opponents camp:

1. As the secretary general of the China Mobile Internet Industry Alliance, Li Yi believes that Bitcoin is a conspiracy and believes that Bitcoin is a financial tool used by the United States to harvest the world. Attention is also a conspiracy theory. It is obvious that human beings will only come up with a conspiracy to make a conclusion when they do not understand something.

2, Tang Jun believes that bitcoin is a game, that bitcoin's skyrocketing is too crazy, but also take gold as an example, saying that gold will always come back because he is a physical asset.

3, Tan Yaling, Dean of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, knows that the birth of Bitcoin is due to the historical circumstances, because of excess liquidity and extreme investor sentiment, Bitcoin is not a rational investment, investment is to Bitcoin can be bought based on self-awareness and ability.

4. Xu Ming, a gold analyst at Bank of China Shanghai Branch, believes that Bitcoin can exchange all goods as a general equivalent in the Internet.

After exchanging all the comments, they each gave their investment advice for the future, which is very interesting.

The simple one is that the ass decides the head.

Supporters camp: Yang Linke believes that buying bitcoin, the old end thinks to buy altcoin, Han Dong thinks to buy funds.

Opponent camp: Li Yi believes that angel investment, Tang Jun believes in buying funds, Tan Yaling believes that buying foreign exchange and Xu Ming believes in buying gold.

Perhaps everyone can see that everyone does not have an objective suggestion for Bitcoin. In self-awareness, they come to a conclusion that what is valuable and what is worthless. Make recommendations based entirely on subjective ideas.

Investment is not a smart game, it is a sensory game.

It is a common occurrence to do smart things wrongly. I believe that the above-mentioned guests who talk about investment are all smart people. Smart people are relatively convinced of their own judgments. As for whether they are correct or not, they can only be proved by time.

Psychologists have noticed that what happens in humans is that if a concept does not appear in a culture, even if it exists objectively, there is no subjective perception. For example, the physics "gravity acceleration", the great philosopher Aristotle believes that when feathers and shots fall at the same height, it is sure that the shots first land, a group of followers, no doubt at all, they Intuitively, it is believed that the shot is heavier than the feathers, and it must have landed first, and it is certainly not wrong for most philosophers to say so.

However, the Italian Galileo did not believe, to do an experiment to prove Aristotle's wrong view. Galileo said that if a large stone descends at a certain speed, then according to Aristotle's argument, a smaller stone will fall at a slower rate. If we bind the two stones together, what speed will the new stone, which weighs the sum of the weights of the two stones, fall? If it still follows Aristotle’s argument, it will definitely be the opposite. Two conclusions. On the one hand, the descending speed of the new stone should be less than the descending speed of the first large stone, because adding a stone that descends at a slower speed will slow down the speed of the first large stone; on the other hand, the new stone The rate of decline should be greater than the rate of decline of the first large stone, because the two stones are tied together and its weight is greater than the first large stone. These two contradictory conclusions cannot be established at the same time. It can be seen that Aristotle's argument is illogical. Galileo further assumed that the speed at which the object descended was independent of its weight. If the air resistance of the two objects is the same, or the air resistance is neglected, then two objects of different weights will fall at the same speed and reach the ground at the same time.

To prove this point, one day in 1589, Galileo, a 25-year-old young mathematics lecturer at the University of Pisa, came to the Leaning Tower of Pisa with his opponents and many others. Galileo climbed the top of the tower and dropped a 100-pound and one-pound iron ball at the same time. In the eyes of the public, the two iron balls unexpectedly fell to the ground almost in parallel. In the face of this ruthless experiment, the people watching at the scene were all stunned and overwhelmed. This beautiful story, which is hailed by the scientific community as the "Pisa Leaning Tower Experiment", proves that different objects, falling from the same height and with the same acceleration, will land at the same time, thus overturning Aristotle's false assertions. This is what Galileo has proved, and now it is the law of free fall that people know.

Yes, only practicing the real chapter, not relying on the ideas of others to invest, some people say that bitcoin is reliable, you buy, some people say that bitcoin is a scam, you will be embarrassed. Sometimes, our cognition only stays on the values ​​of others. There is a “self-test prophecy” in psychology, which means that people will unconsciously act according to known prophecies, and finally make predictions happen.

In other words, if you think that Bitcoin is a speculative target, then your behavior will become speculative. You think Bitcoin is valuable, and you will make value investment without being affected by others.

Duan Hongbin, the supporter of the Bitcoin supporters in the article, is a typical example.

He knew Bitcoin in the Geek Forum in 2010, and can invest in Bitcoin from a few dollars. From 2012 to 2013, he earned a hundred times in just over a year. He made the fund from the initial 10w. The scale of the yuan is about 1000w. Duan Hongbin belongs to the speculators. When he sees it, he accepts it. There is no belief. Even in the program, he proposed not to buy bitcoin to buy the altcoin.

Later, he went to his social software and finally read it. He later stepped on Bitcoin, his mind changed completely, his movements were completely distorted, and the value of Bitcoin was constantly smashed. Perhaps humanity is so interesting.

It is hard to imagine that a person who supported Bitcoin at that time would turn the gun head to fire on Bitcoin one day, and the more so, the more they would not buy Bitcoin. Then it will always go to the air, this is the punishment for the insincere cognition.

Others will only follow the trend. At the time, Bitcoin was in the same group of people as it was optimistic. It is too rare for investment to be different and always correct.

Source: Bitcoin Caesar

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