Electric Capital Developer Ecosystem Analysis for 2023 from 164 million records

Electric Capital's 2023 Developer Ecosystem Analysis Insights from 164 Million Records

Author: Enrique, Source: Author’s Twitter @eherrerosj; Translation: Songxue, LianGuai

October developer update is here! This is a lightweight update we prepared while working on the annual report.

We reviewed over 164 million crypto commits to find the following information:

• As of October 1, 2023, there are 19,300 monthly active open-source developers.

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• The number of developers has decreased by 27% compared to the previous year.

• The recent departures from the crypto space are newcomers who have been working in the field for less than 12 months and are responsible for about 25% of all code commits. This aligns with our findings in July 2023, and the trend continues.

Compared to the previous bear market, the number of developers has increased by 66%, but since 2023, the developer count has decreased: a decrease of 27% compared to October 2022 and 4% compared to October 2021.

Despite the long-term growth, what has happened since October 2022?

Developers who have been in the crypto space for over a year continue to contribute, while many newcomers leave.

By comparing the time between the first and last commit, we can segment the monthly active developers in the crypto field based on their tenure:

• Newcomers: Developers who have been working in the crypto field for less than a year;

• Emerging: Developers who have been working in the crypto field for 1 to 2 years;

• Experienced: Developers who have been working in the crypto field for over 2 years.

The decline in monthly active developers last year was mainly driven by newcomers.

We can see that the number of new developers decreased by 58%, while the number of emerging developers increased moderately by 11%, and experienced developers slightly increased by 5%.

Why have newcomers decreased?

Firstly, the decrease in novice developers is because there has been a decrease in newcomers exploring the crypto field in 2023.

• In October 2023, there were 1,721 new developers entering the crypto field.

• Since June 2023, there has been a 40% decrease in new developers entering the crypto field.

• Since October 2022, it has decreased by 64%.

• Since the peak of the market in November 2021, it has decreased by 67%.

Beginners often dominate the market during peak periods.

Secondly, beginners dominate during bull markets but decrease during bear markets. This has happened before:

• After the peak in January 2018, beginners accounted for 70%;

• After the peak in November 2021, beginners accounted for 60%;

• 60% emerging markets + established dominance after the peak in January 2018 for 24 months;

• After the peak in November 2021, 70% were emerging markets + established market dominance for 23 months.

But despite the overall decline in monthly active developers, how important are the developers who leave?

The developers who stay in the cryptocurrency field submit more code, have longer active days, and work in the crypto field for a longer period of time.

The developers who stay contribute the majority of the code:

• Approximately 25% of the commits come from developers who left after July 2023;

• 75% of the commits come from developers who are still working after July 2023.

The developers who stay in the crypto field work for a longer period of time and have a longer duration of pushing code:

• The average active weeks for developers still working is 12 weeks, while for developers who left it is 1 week;

• The median work experience for developers still working is 21 months, while for departing developers it is 5 months.

Here are the ecosystems with the fastest growth in terms of year-on-year increase, with over 70 developers:

• Aztec Protocol (@aztecnetwork): Year-on-year increase of 168%, with 76 monthly active developers.

• Celestia (@CelestiaOrg): Year-on-year increase of 145%, with 81 monthly active developers.

• Ripple (XRP, @Ripple): Year-on-year increase of 18%, with 172 monthly active developers.

• TON (@ton_blockchain): Year-on-year increase of 8%, with 126 monthly active developers.

• ZKSync (@zksync): Year-on-year increase of 6%, with 229 monthly active developers.

• Starknet (@StarknetEco): Year-on-year increase of 4%, with 517 monthly active developers.

You can find more ecosystem developer data here: https://DeveloperReport.com

We have also updated the open-source cryptocurrency taxonomy. There are more community contributions to the taxonomy than ever before.

We will continue to update Blocking; if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact us!