I was on site in 2019 | After covering 62 events, I ventured to make 3 predictions

Presumably you have learned from the " cute little Wendy " that the boss has arranged year-end homework for the Babbitt content group, and I am naturally no exception.

In 2019, I covered 62 blockchain events and published 139 articles. These include such hot events. Although it seems that few things continue to have an impact.

In addition, I also wrote several in-depth manuscripts, including investigating the real ecological situation behind hot concepts such as Staking , OTC , DeFi , STO , and DAPP ; combing the situation of central bank digital currencies , global tax trends , and Libra ; revealing the Baidu universe and industry The secrets of mining in the park were found by many people to delete the draft; observe the impact of 5G on the blockchain, and wrote two manuscripts in combination with cloud games and edge computing ; consider the privacy issues and cross-chain issues of the blockchain; Dangdang founder Li Guoqing , ConFlux founder Long Fan , Central University of Finance and Economics Professor Deng Jianpeng , Microsoft Accelerator CEO Tan Lin and other industry leaders . These contents are some materials that I think can be deposited, and the links are brought up for everyone to review.

• Is there a relationship between Bitcoin price and time? Read the Logarithmic Growth Model of Bitcoin Value in One Article
• 2019, 3 Chinese blockchain keywords in the eyes of foreigners
• Ant Financial Jiang Guofei: Industrial Blockchain Opens, Ten Million Days of Live Applications Will Appear

In addition to "deceiving" you to increase traffic, I also want to take this rare opportunity to talk about how I felt this year. After all, most of the time, we have to hide ourselves, more like "translation". This does not mean translation in different languages, but translation in different discourse systems. For example, the concept of blockchain has different meanings in the discourse system of central documents, password geeks, and currency leek. What journalists need to do is to understand and communicate the thinking of each party, dissolve the information asymmetry in the industry, and finally reach a semantic consensus.

After interviewing dozens of people and listening to hundreds of speeches, if I let me refine three keywords, as a summary of 2019 and a pre-judgment of 2020, I think it may be: digital economy, industrial scale, financial cross-chain Into.

Trend 1: Digital Economy

The concept of the "digital economy" was not born in recent years. However, in terms of policy and academics, this year has made great progress, especially with the "blockchain" technology.

The first shot signal originated from General Secretary Xi Jinping's reference to the "digital economy" at the 26th APEC meeting. He stressed the need to unleash the growth potential of the digital economy, strengthen digital infrastructure and capacity building, and enhance the accessibility of the digital economy.

What is the relationship between the digital economy and blockchain? The famous economist Zhu Jiaming said that the blockchain will have two effects. On the one hand, it will already have the established industry, they will accept the challenge of the blockchain sooner or later; on the other hand, it will create new industries, and this The combination of the two industries will enable the integration of "digital economy" and "digital economy", which is what we call "digital economy".

The academic community has also responded positively. Tsinghua SEM is studying the theory of digital economics as a new school of economics. Zhu Yan, Dean of the Internet Industry Research Institute of Tsinghua University, also gave a speech on "Industrial Innovation in the Digital Economy Paradigm" at the beginning of 2019. He suggested that the demand-side structural reform should be carried out with digital demand as the core. The release of digital needs requires the relationship between everyone to be clear. Blockchain is an indispensable tool.

Coincidentally, Liu Xiaolei, head of the Department of Finance of Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, said at the (Hangzhou) 2019 Global Blockchain (Hangzhou) Summit Forum hosted by Babbitt that the digital economy has two characteristics: 1. Data becomes assets; 2. Digital assets. Correct pricing can guide resources, and after the assets are digitized, it is more helpful for resource allocation. The blockchain has a lot to do in this process, which is mainly reflected in confirming the data and changing the organizational form.

We are glad to find that the policy side also gave a strong response at the end of the year. On October 24, the General Secretary emphasized during the eighteenth collective study of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee that blockchain should be used as an important breakthrough in independent innovation of core technologies, and the development of blockchain technology and industrial innovation should be accelerated. On October 31, the "Decision" of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee added "data" as a factor of production. Later, Vice Premier Liu He wrote in the People's Daily that "it is necessary to establish and improve data ownership, disclosure, sharing, and trading rules."

Of course, policy support and academic discussions must ultimately be implemented into industrial responses. Meng Yan, deputy director of the Digital Asset Research Institute, said: "Data becoming a production factor will lead to data assetization, and data assetization will create new species and new economic forms. We need to build on the solid foundation of modern economics. , Find an analytical framework to study digital assets. "

People naturally like order, and can make long-term plans in order to feel stable, calm, and confident. So we all tend to stay in familiar places and stick to existing ideas. But the world will not stop changing because of our conservativeness. In the age of the digital economy, are you ready?

Trend 2: Industrial scale

2019 is considered the first year of the blockchain industry. When attending the meeting, I found that guests were speaking less and less about concepts and more and more cases. But if I chat with friends outside the circle, I will still be asked, what is the use of the blockchain? Because they did not really feel the blockchain, to be honest, even myself, I can only feel the landing of the blockchain from the product announcements of various companies.

This is because the application of blockchain is still at the stage of case exploration and has not moved towards large-scale commercial use. We can see two phenomena:

First, mainstream manufacturers have entered the field of blockchain. According to the filing status of the "Blockchain Information Service Filing Management System" issued by the State Network Information Office, up to now, 414 enterprises have been registered with 506 registered projects. Among them, finance, government affairs, traceability, and judicial scene accounted for the highest proportion.

Second, most companies are still watching. According to the data of the "One Blockchain Industry Development Trend Report (2019)" by Zero One Finance, through the statistics of the company's name, business scope and product information containing the word "blockchain", it will be found that enterprises related to blockchain in China There are 31,000, but 96% of them have not actually launched the blockchain business.

In fact, this is completely understandable. Google is the 12th search engine, Facebook is the 10th social platform, and iPad is the 20th tablet. Therefore, it is not that whoever does it first will succeed. But when market conditions mature, who will do it first.

So, is it time? We have reasons to believe that the situation will change in 2020 for two reasons: first, the policy environment for blockchain technology being rectified under the background of the digital economy era mentioned above; second, there are already enough alliances in the market Chain, BaaS platform, and application cases for various scenarios for enterprises to choose from.

Coincidentally, Ali and Baidu also made similar predictions recently. Alibaba Group predicts that “scale production-level blockchain applications will enter the masses”, and a large number of innovative blockchain application scenarios and multi-dimensional collaborations across industries and ecology will emerge in the future. Blockchain applications will enter the public. Subsequently, Baidu Intelligent Cloud also stated that in 2020, the industrial blockchain will move from a "benchmark case" to a "scale replication", ushering in an explosion, with everything on the chain and the whole people on the chain.

As an advertisement here, Babbitt has launched the "Industrial Blockchain" channel, which not only has the "Industrial Blockchain Weekly News" information report, but also provides one-stop solutions for training, consulting and landing. demand.

Trend 3: Financial cross-chain

In the last part, I want to talk about the so-called "currency circle", but I don't want to call it like this … It actually consists of two parts, finance and technology.

With regard to finance, I agree with Taleb's view in "A Random Walk for Dummies" "The financial trading industry mistakes luck as a manifestation of personal ability. This habit is very common and most obvious." Your success may not be because Smarter than everyone else, and may be the result of luck.

Looking back on the hot spots in the circle in 2019, the words "financial" are inseparable. At the beginning of the year, many public chains were hosting developer competitions to reward Dapp developers. However, after my investigation, I found that the Dapp basically reduced to the woolen industry chain, wearing a game coat, in fact, 5% of the miners brushed 90% of the transaction volume and earned 300% of the revenue. Recently, few people in the circle have discussed Dapp anymore.

In February, Binance set off an IEO boom, and mainstream exchanges followed suit. However, from the results, in addition to the role of raising the exchange platform currency, it is a feather for online projects. I regret to see that the project I have interviewed dived after it went online, and now the price of the coin is almost zero. I interviewed the project at that time because the founder came from a prestigious school. The project white papers, yellow papers, and purple books were very serious technical solutions, and they were invested by many well-known institutions.

In March, I studied STO, which is actually a method of "compliance financing". Before the investigation, I thought that the key was compliance, but later I found out that the real problem is how to get more than traditional methods after compliance with the private equity bill Better financing and circulation. However, many people in the market can't solve this problem, but they have started to help the project do STO compliance business. Of course there are also teams that really do things. Last week, Qu Ming, IDhub's founder, published the "STO Research Report," and the thinking was valuable. Standard consensus has also been writing STO research reports. There is also a French company, Tokeny, who have successively done several real estate STO cases in Europe.

In April, follow DeFi. At that time, the feeling was "the double world of ice and fire", with thousands of projects but obvious head effects, and the core demand of the stock game was thin. But we also have to see that it is improving. The total lock-up share has increased by 200% compared to the beginning of the year. DeFi has also begun to appear on public chains outside Ethereum. It is also a good phenomenon for Maker's share to continue to decline, although the first three projects, Maker and Synthetix , Compound still occupies 90% of the lock-up share.

At the same time, Staking was also widely concerned, and mining pools, wallets, exchanges, and project squares became the united front. But I calculated the profitability of the Staking project in September, and found that the top ten projects are all losing money in terms of fiat currency returns. Later, various forms of money management also emerged, and they all faced similar dilemmas.

In June, the C-bit is undoubtedly the stable currency Libra, and the global central bank is highly alert. The traditional financial market can no longer avoid blockchain technology. In the context of the Sino-US trade war, the central bank's digital currency, DC / EP, is ready to take on this opponent who is born at any time.

In July, OTC became the focus due to the short-term rise in the price of Bitcoin and the birth of Matriport. Although OTC trading volume is three times that of the exchange, it is still slightly mysterious and low-key. How to apply for a license and open a special bank account that supports the virtual currency clearing business is its real challenge.

In September, the much-anticipated Bakkt bitcoin futures went online. Due to less-than-expected transaction volume, the price of bitcoin ushered in a "black door". Thinking of the beginning of the year, I chatted with friends in the industry. He thinks that a new round of bull market will start this year, which is most likely caused by Bakkt.

After October, a new round of regulatory storm broke out in China, and the hot spots in the public chain circle went out. But "Half Bitcoin in 2020" seems to be brewing again. I am actually a bit worried. The miner's income is determined by four factors. One is the iterative improvement of the technology of the mining machine. The other is the transfer of the mining pool to a region with lower electricity costs. The third is the increase in the price of Bitcoin. The first two actually have limits, and the fourth is not conducive to the development of Bitcoin. Many people say that the cost of miners is the base price of bitcoin, so halving the price of bitcoin must rise. In my opinion, this reverses the cause and effect.

It is not my intention to spend so much time writing "finance", but they are indeed the focus of the industry's attention in the past year. Technological progress is slow. In my opinion, Ethereum 2.0 is actually a new chain, which announced the failure of the first generation of public chains. Due to performance limitations, we have not seen a real killer application so far. However, the public chain team still represents the strongest innovation of the blockchain. At present, the development direction of the second generation of public chains can be summarized in three words: layering, cross-chain, governance, and of course, the technology selection is different.

It can be seen from the development in 2019 that decentralized finance is still the most vital in the public chain ecology, and the most noticeable public chain in 2020 is cross-chain. There are already many application-layer teams preparing for cross-chain DeFi. Undercurrents are turbulent and I don't know what will happen tomorrow, but I will continue to witness history with you.

Finally, I want to rewrite the end of a paragraph I like very much in Hemingway's "The Feast of Flow":

The world is old, but we are young. Nothing is easy here. Poverty, wealth, right and wrong, even moonlight, and the breathing of people sleeping next to you in the moonlight, are not easy.

Good luck in 2020.

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