QKL123 market analysis | After bitcoin plunges, the halving market is over? 73 days countdown! (0228)

Summary: The broader market has rebounded, but Bitcoin has rebounded less strongly. At present, it is near the 200 moving average, or it will repeatedly test support. Judging from the historical performance, the favorable expectation of Bitcoin halving this time has not yet fully come out, which may be similar to the situation of the second halving in 2016: After the market is fully adjusted, it may be closer to the halving date.

At 15:00 on February 28, 2020, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 13,200.39 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 0.43%, reflecting a slight rebound in the broad market; total turnover was 1,096.454 billion yuan, a 24-hour change of -22.01%, and market activity increased significantly. decline. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 85.81 points, with a 24-hour change of -0.92%. The relative performance of altcoin in the entire market has weakened; the Alternative sentiment index is 40 (previous value 39), and the market sentiment is expressed as fear; The external discount premium index was reported at 101.79, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 0.01%, and the strength of OTC capital inflow remained unchanged.

Analyst perspective:

• Hong Kong and Abu Dhabi amend cryptocurrency regulations in conjunction with Financial Action Task Force
• US stocks plunged across the board, mined coins halving VS economic crisis, buy up or buy down?
• Comprehensive analysis of the MakerDAO governance system: Taking 2% governance events as an example

According to the previous market performance of Bitcoin before and after halving, the halving market can be divided into two: before halving (good expectations) and after halving (mad bull market). The halving market mentioned here again mainly refers to the former: in past performance, it often corresponds to a positive expected rise and a callback after a large rise.

When bitcoin continued to drop from November to December last year, more and more people in the market began to doubt whether bitcoin would have a halving that was expected to be positive. At a time when pessimism was getting stronger, the broader market unexpectedly began to rise rapidly in January this year, rapidly rising from $ 6,800 to a high of $ 10,500, an increase of up to 50%, and taking only 40 days. However, after the bitcoin surge, it has experienced a slump in recent days, and it quickly fell back to about $ 8,800. People can't help but wonder: Is the expected halving good ended?

Currently, there are more than 70 days before the next Bitcoin halving. Although history does not simply repeat, history can be used as a mirror. So, how did the performance of the past two days before Bitcoin halved in half more than 70 days?

70 days before the second halving (July 2016), when the price of Bitcoin was at $ 2,900, it was in a correction after a big increase ($ 1500 in September 2015 to a high of $ 3,000 in December 2015) Shock phase (January 2016 to April 2016). After the market fluctuated sufficiently, it began to rise sharply at the end of May 2016, rising from $ 2,900 to a high of $ 5,000 in less than a month. The positive expectation was released one month before the halving occurred, and then it fell back from a high to a low of $ 3,600 in August 2016.

70 days before the first halving (November 2012), when the Bitcoin price was at $ 77, it was also in a period of callback shock after a big increase (from $ 32 in May 2012 to $ 84 in August 2012) (August 2012 to October 2012). But there is a difference: after the shock is full, there is no sharp increase, but it starts to rise slowly from the low of 64 dollars and continues to rise slowly after halving; under this round of cycles, it rose sharply in May 2012 Prior to this, there was also a sustained surge ($ 14, November 2011 to $ 40, January 2012).

Finally, looking at the current trend, it is more similar to the situation before the second halving: both are in a period of callback shocks after a continuous rise ($ 3,800 in March 2019 to $ 1,400 in June 2019); corresponding to the previous period It is the first time that the new round has continued to rise significantly and is dominated by a cyclical rebound. That is to say, if history repeats, the continuous increase before the halving this time is likely to be similar to the situation before the halving in 2016: it will come later and may even be closer to the halving date.

In addition, related analysis of halving market for search reference: QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin halving market, history will not simply repeat (1111); QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin computing power hits a new high, and next year, it will be super. Mine disaster? (1223); QKL123 market analysis | How is Bitcoin scarce? The future bull market may reach 100,000 knives (0120); QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin halves countdown, mainstream currencies counterattack again (0206); QKL123 market analysis | Difficulty with new cycles, Bitcoin converges after halving? (0218)

First, the spot BTC market

Today, the rebound of BTC is not strong, but the downside has not fallen below the low point, and the short-term range is more likely to fluctuate. On the daily line, Bitcoin has come to the 200-day moving average. It may be repeatedly tested in the near future. It will be adjusted in the near future. The subsequent stacking halving is expected to lead to a continuous rise.

Second, the spot ETH market

Relative to BTC, ETH has a stronger trend, but has not stood firm on the 30-day line. It is necessary to wait for Bitcoin to stabilize its 200-day moving average, and it will be the first to counterattack in the future.

Third, the spot LTC market

Today, the method of LTC is similar to that of ETH, but the rebound has a clear upper shadow line, and the trend is relatively weak, mainly linked to Bitcoin.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS's rebound is not strong, and it began to shrink in a short time, and it mainly linked to the range fluctuation of Bitcoin.

Five, analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC has improved, and it is expected to usher in the crazy bull market in the next one to two years. Smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS can be configured at dips.

2. Midline (January to March)

BTC is approaching the 200-day moving average, which is expected to increase by halving, and there is still some room for improvement. Those who do not have heavy positions will increase their positions on dips.

3． Short-term (1-3 days)

The rebound is not strong, wait and see.

Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin's competition in the market. It is used to measure the relative change in the relative price of Bitcoin to a package of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely fearful" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

6.BTC-coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39. %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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