QKL123 market analysis | At the tip of the iceberg of crypto assets, Hurun's wealth list ranks sixth (0226)

Abstract: The market changed rapidly, the altcoin fell sharply, bitcoin fell below the monthly trend line, the market shifted into a deep adjustment, and the panic mood increased, but the intensity of off-market capital inflows did not weaken, and the possibility of short-term fluctuations Larger. Today, the Hurun Global Wealth List announced that a total of six rich people in the crypto asset industry are on the list, but the wealth of crypto asset holders has not been considered, which may be just the tip of the iceberg in the crypto asset industry.

At 15:00 on February 26, 2020, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 13920.41 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -4.66%, reflecting the rapid decline of the broad market; the total turnover was 1,186,672 million yuan, a 24-hour change of + 7.62%, and market activity increased. . Among the top ten crypto assets by market value (excluding USDT), BSV has the largest 24-hour decline (-11.48%), and EOS has the smallest 24-hour decline (-1.63%).

The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 83.94 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 2.84%. The relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has obviously weakened; the Alternative sentiment index is 41 (previous value 44), and the market sentiment is expressed as fear; ChaiNext USDT is off-market The discount premium index was reported at 101.48, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 0.09%, and the intensity of OTC fund inflows increased slightly.

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Analyst perspective:

Today, the Hurun Research Institute releases its annual Hurun Global Wealth List. According to statistics on January 31, 2020, the number of entrepreneurs with billions of dollars in the world reached a record 2816, an increase of 346 from last year. Among them, 6 entrepreneurs in the blockchain and crypto asset industries are on the list. They are Zhao Changpeng, founder of Binance, Zhan Ketuan, co-founder of Bitmain, Xu Mingxing, founder of OKex, Chris Larsen, founder of Ripple, Li Lin, founder of Huobi, and founder of Coinbase By Brian Armstrong. Four came from crypto asset trading platforms, one from a mining machine manufacturer, and one from a blockchain technology company.

However, in the field of crypto assets, Hurun Fortune ranking may be just the tip of the iceberg. Some rich people in the field of crypto assets may not have many corporate shares, but instead hold a lot of crypto assets. At present, most of the global crypto assets are scattered in unlabeled addresses, and it is difficult to estimate the ownership of public account balances due to anonymity of the address and other reasons. The following table shows the wealth distribution data of the addresses on the Bitcoin chain.

According to the data of Bitinfocharts, the number of addresses on the Bitcoin chain currently holding more than 0.001 BTC has reached 15.12 million. Among them, the balance of most addresses is below 1 BTC (accounting for 94.78%), the balance of 772,800 addresses is between 1-100 BTC, and the balance of 16,200 addresses is between 100-10,000 BTC. The balance of 105 addresses is between 10,000 and 1,000,000 BTC. It can be found that nearly half of the "effective addresses" (excluding the balance below 0.001) hold less than 30,000 BTC in total, accounting for only 0.16% of the total circulation.

From the perspective of wealth distribution, Bitcoin is mainly distributed in the balance address of 10-10000 BTC. Among them, 10-100 BTC address balance accounted for 24.45%, 1000-10000 BTC address balance accounted for 26.86%, the latter concentrated the organization's holding address. In particular, the top hundred wealthy addresses are mostly cold wallet addresses of trading platforms or trustees. This can indirectly indicate that a large number of crypto asset traders or holders will place their assets on trading platforms or custodians instead of using private keys to save them.

In the future, with the continuous development of blockchain technology, the continuous spread of crypto assets around the world, and the continuous investment of millennial wealth, the price of crypto assets such as Bitcoin will continue to rise, and the distribution of Bitcoin's wealth will become more dispersed. However, until more anonymous addresses are marked, it will be possible for crypto asset holders to "list" the global wealth list.

First, the spot BTC market

After the BTC shock converged, it changed its course downward, and the downward adjustment range exceeded expectations, and the market panic increased. On the daily line, Bitcoin fell below the 30-day moving average and continues to fall. If it cannot be repaired to more than $ 9,600 in a short time, it will be mainly adjusted in the near future. At present, there are more than 70 days before the halving of Bitcoin, which is expected to further cash in, only after the market has fully adjusted.

Today, the SEC will review Wilshire Phoenix's Bitcoin ETF application again, and the market may be affected by the news. Although the current market is less likely to pass, it does not rule out the possibility of good news. The market may experience large fluctuations in the short term, and try to avoid fluctuation risks.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH has fallen sharply, there has been a panic disk, and the volume can be released more obviously. It has not fallen below the 30-day line. There will be a certain rebound in the short term, mainly linked to bitcoin.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC fell below the 5-day line again, but the W-type went into the M-type, but did not fall below the previous low, and the short-term linkage of the Bitcoin range fluctuated.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS was relatively resilient yesterday, but today it made up for losses, and the amount of kills could be more obvious. It did not fall below the lows of the previous few days, and was mainly based on short-term linkage.

Yesterday evening, most of EOS's super nodes passed the proposal to reduce the inflation rate to 1%, which may be one of the reasons for the resistance to the decline yesterday. However, the destruction of more than 34 million EOS was good, and it did not change the downward trend of EOS.

Five, analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC has improved, and it is expected to usher in the crazy bull market in the next one to two years. Smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS can be configured at dips.

2. Midline (January to March)

The 200-day moving average on the BTC station is expected to increase by halving. BTC is expected to emerge from a wave of rising prices. There will be a certain amount of upside in the near future.

3． Short-term (1-3 days)

Wait for stabilization, wait and see.

Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin's competition in the market. It is used to measure the relative change in the relative price of Bitcoin to a package of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely fearful" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

6.BTC-coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39. %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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