QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin 200-day moving average shock, the market faces the choice of cattle and bears (0926)

Abstract: Today, Bitcoin oscillates on the edge of the 200-day moving average. The altcoin is slightly stronger and short-term shocks dominate. At present, the market has come to the vicinity of the “Bear and Bear Demarcation Line”. From the perspective of the historical performance of bitcoin, the calculation of the whole network and the number of coins destroyed, it is less likely to fall into a bear market again, but it will take some time for the market to turn. The torment.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 26, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,617.708 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -0.52%, the total turnover was 494.785 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -28.67%. Market activity has decreased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11277.31 points, up 24 hours to -0.74%; the Alternative sentiment index was 12, which was lower than yesterday (15), and the market sentiment was still extremely fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BCH had the largest drop in 24-hour (-1.22%), and XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (+4.17%). BTC rose by -0.88% in 24 hours, and the market value (67.05%) was slightly lower than yesterday. The market risk aversion was slightly eased. The USDT rose to -0.27% for 24 hours, and the net inflow of funds today was 2.7478 million, which was lower than yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Discount Index was reported at 100.55, which was up to -0.27% in 24 hours.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 57) dropped significantly from yesterday (peak 100), higher than the seven-day average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), South Africa (50), Netherlands (47), Austria (46), Brazil (45), Switzerland (45) and Germany (43). In the past week, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 59) dropped significantly from yesterday (peak 100), approaching the seven-day average.

Analyst's point of view:

According to CoinMetrics data, the MVRV indicator (left axis, deep red line) reflecting the balance between supply and demand has dropped to 1.5 yesterday, which is the lowest in the past three months, which is close to 40% from the peak of June 27 (2.56). It shows that the imbalance between supply and demand in the market has been greatly alleviated. Looking at the historical price of Bitcoin (right axis, light red hatching), most of the MVRVs during the 2013 and 2017 mad cow markets were above 2.0, ie demand was significantly greater than supply, and during the bear market in 2015 and 2019 Most of the MVRVs are below 1.5, that is, the supply is significantly larger than the demand.

Recently, the price of Bitcoin hits the “Big and Bear Demarcation Line” MA200. At present, the MVRV indicator has also come to the vicinity of the Bitcoin Bull-Bear boundary. If it falls again, it is likely that there will be a bear market bottom. If it turns, it is likely to usher. Far mad cow market. Judging from the price performance of Bitcoin history, the calculation of the whole network and the number of currency destruction, it is less likely to fall into a bear market again, and it is more likely to turn upward. But the market is not a one-off process and it takes a while to suffer.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday afternoon, BTC hit a minimum of 8,200 US dollars. At 6 o'clock in the morning, BTC hit a maximum of 8,660 US dollars. Currently, it is walking on the 200-day moving average. The bottom-up capital inflow slows down and is long and short. If it cannot be recovered in time, the market outlook is not optimistic.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 1,252,410,100 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 44,762,500 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 2,126,726 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 30,000 yuan. Inflow of 437,511.43 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 15,458.97 yuan. The market has a large net inflow of oversized singles and medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 95.56EH/s, which was significantly higher than the previous day (79.96EH/s), close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 698,000, compared with the previous day (82.36). 10,000) has been reduced, close to a one-month average; the trading volume on the chain is 1,643,300, which is higher than the previous day (13.045 million), higher than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed is 10.0651 million (historical median), compared with the previous day. (33,129,800) has been reduced, and the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

After the release of ETH in the early hours of the morning, the rebound rebounded and stabilized. Today, after a short period of 173 US dollars, it fell back, and the short-term shock dominated. The previous day ETH's BTC relative price hit a low of 0.0188 BTC and rebounded. It is still slightly fluctuating around 0.0200BTC, short-term slightly strong.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 234,346,900 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 52.925 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 20.5824 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 5,580,800 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow into 271.95 million yuan. There are differences in the market, but the net inflow of small orders is the main one.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly, adding 7 DApps. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes has a 24-hour active user number of 1.8k, 24 hours change +13.99%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.7k, 24-hour change -17.45%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users The number is 436, 24 hours change + 3.56%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Yesterday, after the LTC's heavy volume hit a low of 52 US dollars, the heavy volume stabilized upwards. At 01 am today, the needle was inserted at 58 US dollars. Today's LTC/BTC trading has an upward pin of 0.006970BTC, which has obvious heavy volume and long and short glue.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 12.1431 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 4,110,500 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 253.42 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 4569.70 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 40,198,600 yuan. There is a divergence in the market, with a net outflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 317.86TH/s, which was slightly higher than yesterday (313.81TH/s), higher than the one-month average. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 69,900, which was lower than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed (143.131 million, historically small) was significantly lower than the previous day (408.301 million), and the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Yesterday afternoon, EOS hit a low of 2.6 US dollars and went online. However, EOS hit a downward trend in the early morning after EOS hit a maximum of 2.9 US dollars. Yesterday, EOS/BTC trading slightly went up. It is currently oscillating around 0.00034 BTC, short-term slightly strong.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 10,876,400 yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 535,600 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 10,076,600 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 5,280,900 yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 10,349,800 yuan. There are certain differences in the market, mainly based on the net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has decreased, and the number of new Dapps has been 1. Among them, the number of 24-hour users of game PROSPECTORS is 2.4k, which is -2.48% compared with yesterday; the number of active users of Dice's 24-hour active users is 938k, which is -47.42% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of data application Lumeos is 1.5k. Yesterday's change -5.23%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.3k, compared with yesterday's change -5.23%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, the DPoS leader EOS BTC is approaching the low point of the year and can be configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Recently, the market is expected to step out of the upward trend and increase the position.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

High-selling and low-sucking, RSI indicators show oversold, and small positions can be bargain-hunting.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

4. Google search trends

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

5. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

6. Coin-day destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

7. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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