QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin dark moments, waiting for the dawn (0718)

Abstract: After the BTC heavy volume rebounded yesterday, the short-term upside of 10,000 US dollars failed, and the long-term stalemate waited for direction. The short-term shocks adjust the situation unchanged, and the BTC's downside space is very limited. It is expected to see the stage bottoming in the near future, and the demand form can be confirmed. In the long run, from the historical comprehensive performance, the BTC shock uptrend has not changed.

According to QKL123 statistics, on July 18, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,851.201 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -8.51%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 561.168 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed + 13.27%, 24-hour market activity has increased. The market value of BTC accounted for 65.30%, which was slightly lower than yesterday (65.64%). The market value of ETH accounted for 8.64%, a slight increase from yesterday (8.41%). The market's risk aversion is still high, but it continues to decline compared to yesterday.

At 11 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BNB has the largest increase in 24 hours (+13.74%), followed by LTC (+13.51%); BTC has a 24-hour up/down +4.27%, and ETH has risen 24 hours. Width +8.10%. USDT's 24-hour up/down was -0.62%, 24-hour turnover rate was 5.00%, market capitalization (27.651 billion yuan) was slightly lower than yesterday (27.723 billion yuan), and off-exchange capital inflows decreased from yesterday.

• A Preliminary Study of Cryptography: The Art of Hidden Information——The Eleven of the Blockchain Technology
• BTC "blood sucking" is fierce, only 6 coins have won BTC in the past year
• Chief Technology Officer, Bitfury Group: Blockchain accelerates e-commerce and reduces trust costs

At 11 o'clock today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 14,107. 29 points, 24 hours up and down to +6.69%; alternative.me sentiment index was 19, significantly lower than yesterday (34), the market performance once again escalated into extreme panic. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend has dropped from yesterday, slightly lower than the average of the past seven days.

Analyst's point of view: At present, BTC has gained support at $9,000 after the oversold rebound, and the possibility of continuing to attack 10,000 USD still exists. The long and short is in a stalemate stage, waiting for the market to reverse the signal (the heavy volume is up to 10,000 US dollars).

First, the spot BTC market

24H highest: ¥69130.31 24H minimum: ¥63570.95

Yesterday, the BTC rebounded and rebounded. The short-term upside of 10,000 US dollars failed, and the reversal signal was not clear enough. The OBV and MACD indicators show that there has been a large deviation, and the possibility of reversal is increasing. At present, long and short wins and losses are not divided, short-term consolidation in the range of $ 9,000 – $ 10,000, waiting for the amount of energy to go out to confirm whether it is a stage bottom, if the volume exceeds 10,000 dollars, then the stage bottom confirmation, if No, you need to look at the direction of the amount of energy that can be measured.

Fund face

As of 13:51, the net inflow of BTC funds today was 2,882.3 billion yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 378.03 million yuan, the net outflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 3.1 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 86.7 million yuan. Market shipments have been significantly reduced, and large households are willing to raise their positions.

Yesterday, the number of BTC coins destroyed was 2,185.49 (historical median). The chain movement was relatively frequent, which was significantly higher than the previous day (899.12 million). Recently, there are no giant whales in the field to concentrate on selling pressure, and the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

2. Fundamentals

Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 286 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 65.58EH/s, which is lower than yesterday's (66.15EH/s), still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 740,500, a slight decrease from the previous day (749,300), higher than the average of three months. At present, the relative indicator MVRV of BTC is around 1.7. From the past few bull markets, about $9,000 is likely to be a phased bottom in the evolution of this bull market. The amount of energy conversion and morphological evolution near the gate needs Focus. Of course, the market always exceeds the expectations of the majority. The space for further exploration in the short term is very limited. The imbalance between supply and demand in the market requires price space to digest or time adjustment to digest, and further confirmation of the evolution of the market is needed.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): Currently in the short-term partial adjustment stage, the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years, and it can be used to open positions or increase the amount of 10,000 US dollars.

Mid-line (January-March): Short-term downside risks and downside space are small. It is recommended to open positions or dip up to $10,000 to increase positions.

Short-term (1-3 days): Wait for the direction of energy, choose the machine and move. Resistance is $10,000 and support is $9,000.

Second, the spot ETH market

24H highest: ¥1550.41 24H minimum: ¥1367.81

From the 4-hour K-line, ETH's MACD has a golden cross, which is relatively strong. The short-term downside risk is reduced. There is a tendency to continue to attack, focusing on whether the direction of energy can effectively break through $230.

Fund face

As of 13:49, ETH's net capital inflow today was 90.01 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 75.09 million yuan, the net inflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 63.97 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 49.04 million yuan. There are still differences in the market, mainly based on large single positions.

At present, the ETH/BTC transaction has rebounded beyond the 0.0201 BTC. From the MACD indicator, the probability of a transaction turning over is increased. If the bottom of the BTC is confirmed, ETH has a relatively strong trend.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow (16,496 ETH) increased or decreased by -0.78% compared with yesterday, the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow (3,093 ETH) increased or decreased by -1.11% compared with yesterday; the game encryption hero's 24-hour active user The number (2,766) increased or decreased by -0.40% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users (334) of social application Status increased or decreased by -0.89% compared with yesterday. The number of active users of video application Livepeer (168) increased or decreased by +0.00 compared with yesterday. %; Stables Paxos Standard's 24-hour trading volume (1,668) increased or decreased by +0.24% compared with yesterday, and the forecast market Augur's 24-hour trading volume (210) increased or decreased by -2.78% compared with yesterday.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The ETH 2.0 project of the smart contract platform is in the process of advancement, and it is expected to step out of the independent market in the future.

Midline (January-March): Downside space is limited, and positions can be opened on dips.

Short-term (1-3 days): Select the machine and pay attention to the direction. Resistance is $230, support is $190, and target is $220.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

We will continue to update Blocking; if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact us!