QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin plummeted, "delivery day effect" pot? (0927)

Abstract: In the short-term market, the needles continue to be blood-washed. The altcoin is slightly stronger and the fear continues. The futures market has played a role in fueling the recent decline; today is the CME bitcoin futures delivery date. After the completion of futures delivery, there will often be an upside in the short term.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 27, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,558.819 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -3.72%, the total turnover was 478.043 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -3.52%. Market activity has decreased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 10858.66 points, up 24 hours to -3.73%; the Alternative sentiment index was 24, which was higher than yesterday (12), and the market sentiment was still extremely fearful.

The Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 97.86 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall -1.61%. The BTC market value (67.05%) was slightly lower than yesterday, and the market risk aversion was slightly eased. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC had the largest decline in 24 hours (-4.31%), and XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (+5.92%). USDT's 24-hour rise and fall was +0.22%. Today's net capital inflow was 800.192 million yuan, which was lower than yesterday. ChaiNext USDT's over-the-counter discount index was reported at 101.16, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.57%.

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In the past day, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 60) was the same as the previous value (peak 60), higher than the seven-day average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), South Africa (45), Brazil (45), Austria (41), the Netherlands (41), Ghana (38) and Switzerland (45). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 51) has fallen from the previous value (peak 62), below the seven-day average.

Analyst's point of view:

Today is the CME bitcoin futures delivery date (the last Friday of the contract month), can not help but wonder if the previous day's plunge is related to this?

Although there is no evidence to let the "delivery date" come back to the pot, but near the futures delivery date, the futures market often plays a role in fueling the price, causing more dramatic fluctuations in prices. This is because, when the contract is delivered, it is also the last time of the final battle. Once the delivery is completed, the loss is cashed. In order to obtain favorable contract delivery prices, both long and short sides will try their best to use various means to influence futures and even spot prices.

However, CME bitcoin futures delivery is indeed "suspicious." According to the Arcane Research report, bitcoin prices fell by an average of 2% before the CME monthly futures contract was settled. In the past 20 months, there have been 15 months of bitcoin prices falling significantly before the CME futures contract was delivered, and there will be a rebound after each decline.

So it can be guessed that after the expiration of the CME futures contract, the short-term bitcoin price is likely to rise.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday evening BTC again heavy volume down, the lowest touched $7,750, and now it is oscillating around 8,000 US dollars, the Air Force is temporarily suppressed, and short-term rebound. If you can't return to the 200-day moving average (purple line) in the near future, the market outlook is not optimistic.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 270.047 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 175,442,300 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 20,608,500 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 285.81 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 48.767 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with a net inflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 101.77EH/s, which was significantly higher than the previous day (95.56EH/s), a record high, and the long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 727,300, compared with the previous day (69.80 million). A slight increase, higher than the one-month average; the trading volume on the chain is 1,100.9 million, which is lower than the previous day (1,465,300), higher than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed is 10.3685 million (historical median), compared with the previous day. (102.651 million) increased slightly, and the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday evening, ETH's heavy volume dropped to a low of 152 US dollars and quickly rebounded. Currently, it is up to 166 US dollars. There is a possibility of a golden fork in the four-hour K-line. Today, the relative price of ETH's BTC has risen. It has recently oscillated around 0.0205BTC, and it is slightly stronger in a short time.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 4.4586 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 26.5495 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 85.529 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 148,669,900 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 18,507,600 yuan. The market is mostly net inflows of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has been reduced, adding 11 DApps. Among them, the financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.7k, 24 hours change +8.65%; game application My Crypto Heroes 24-hour active users 1.6k, 24-hour change – 27.74%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users The number is 355, 24 hours change -16.27%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC's heavy volume fell yesterday night, and it quickly rebounded after hitting a low of 50 dollars in the early morning. It is now oscillating around $55. In the early hours of the morning, the LTC/BTC traded a 0.0066 BTC pin, which had a significant amount of heavy-duty, and short-term linkage with Bitcoin.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 89.486 million yuan, which was basically the same as yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 28.9495 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 139.78 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 1986.37 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 42.07 million yuan. The market is mostly net outflows of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 307.15TH/s, which was slightly lower than yesterday (317.86TH/s), which was close to the one-month average. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the LTC chain (6.87 million) decreased slightly, lower than the one-month average; the trading volume on the LTC chain (476.01 million) dropped significantly, but still close to the high of the month; the number of coins destroyed (2861.64) 10,000, the historical value is smaller, which is significantly higher than the previous day (143.113 million), but the long-term trend has not been destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS last night's heavy volume, the lowest touched 2.6 US dollars, and now rises to around 2.8 US dollars yesterday, short-term linkage of bitcoin-based; EOS / BTC trading is slightly stronger, currently oscillating around 0.000344 BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 8.253 million yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 6,457,900 yuan, and the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 20,773,100 yuan, and the net is between RMB 50,000 and 300,000 yuan. The outflow was 166.9027 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 72.28 million yuan. There are certain differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has decreased, and the number of new Dapps has been 1. Among them, the game EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2.6k, which is -6.09% compared with yesterday; the data application Lumeos's 24-hour active users is 1.5k, which is -0.07% compared with yesterday; the quiz application PokerKing's 24-hour active users is 1.3k , compared with yesterday's change -3.32%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.2k, compared with yesterday's change -12.64%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, the DPoS leader EOS BTC is approaching the low point of the year and can be configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Recently, the market is expected to step out of the upward trend and increase the position.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

High-selling and low-sucking, RSI indicators show oversold, and small positions can be bargain-hunting.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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