QKL123 market analysis | Ethereum is already on the road, when will Bitcoin start again? (0923)

Abstract: Today Bakkt is on the line of bitcoin futures, but the transaction volume is worrying. At present, bitcoin has tended to adjust the tail, the triangle convergence approaches the convergence limit, and the choice from the general direction is getting closer. Recently, ETH has increased its heavy volume and has not yet experienced a sharp decline. If it continues to maintain its strength, it is expected to drive the market to stabilize.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 23, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 18,922.26 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -2.05%, the total turnover was 334.592 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -11.79%. Market activity has decreased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13701.14 points, up 24 hours to -0.04%; the Alternative sentiment index was 41, which was higher than yesterday (37), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC had the largest increase in 24 hours (+0.63%), and XLM had the largest decline in 24 hours (-4.59%). BTC rose by +2.82% in 24 hours. The market value (66.88%) rebounded slightly from yesterday, and the market risk aversion increased slightly. USDT's 24-hour ups and downs were -0.15%, and today's net inflow of funds was 760.125 million yuan, a slight decrease from yesterday; ChaiNext USDT's off-market discount premium index was 99.23, which was up to -0.21% in 24 hours.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 89) increased from yesterday (peak 79), higher than the seven-day average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (61), South Africa (48), Brazil (43), Austria (40), Switzerland (38) and Venezuela (38). Over the past week, global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 54) has rebounded slightly from yesterday (peak 51), approaching a seven-day low.

Analyst's point of view:

For more than two months, Bitcoin has tended to adjust the tail, the triangle convergence approaches the convergence limit, the amount and amplitude are gradually reduced, and the choice from the general direction is getting closer. In recent days, ETH has increased its heavy load in the vicinity of 200-210 US dollars, and has not yet experienced a sharp decline. It is more likely to successfully bottom out. If it continues to maintain its strength, it is expected to drive the market to stabilize.

At 8:00 this morning, the much-anticipated Bakkt physical delivery futures was officially launched, but the current official website display volume (only 27 BTC as of 17:00) is worrying. Last Friday (September 20th), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced that it will launch bitcoin options in the first quarter of next year. Compared to Bitcoin futures, options offer additional flexibility (such as more price and expiration options), which helps users better implement trading strategies and hedge against price volatility risks.

First, the spot BTC market

Recently, BTC continued to test. After hitting a low of $9,850 yesterday, it hit a high of $10090. It is now back to around $9,900 and there is no significant heavy volume. From the four-hour K-line, the BTC continues to move up and down the convergence zone of the Yan Triangle, and the choice from the general direction is getting closer.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 133,295,700 yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 10621.87 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 38.914 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Inflow of 5523.20 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 4305.50 yuan. The market is mostly out of a large single net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average computing power of the BTC network was 95.41EH/s, a slight increase from the previous day (93.52EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 573,800, compared with the previous day ( The decrease was close to a one-month low; the number of currency days destroyed was 1.493 million (historically smaller), which was significantly lower than the previous day (347.87 million), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

In the early hours of the morning, ETH hit a minimum of $206. The amount and amplitude of the ETH gradually narrowed, and there is a possibility of continuing to attack. The relative price of ETH BTC hits 0. 0205BTC, and it is currently rising to 0. 0211BTC near shock, short-term performance from weak to strong. Judging from the four-hour K-line of ETH, ETH has increased its heavy load in the vicinity of 200-210 US dollars, and has not experienced a sharp decline in recent days. It is more likely to successfully bottom out. If it continues to maintain its strength, it is expected to drive the market to stabilize.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 301,247,100 yuan, a slight increase from yesterday. Among them, the over-single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 5,362,700 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 4,67.78 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 40.739 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 30,167.30 million. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp decreased slightly, adding 7 DApps. Among them, the financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.8k, 24-hour change -29.74%; game application My Crypto Heroes 24-hour active users 1.7k, 24-hour change -26.98%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users The number 261, 24 hours change – 6.79%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Yesterday, LTC's heavy volume hit a low of 71 US dollars, and it has rebounded. It fluctuated around 73 US dollars. Today's LTC/BTC trading pair is strong, rising from the low of 0.00715BTC to around 0.00740BTC, but there is no significant heavy volume.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 158,731,700 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 2,195,600 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 9170.58 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 3102.25 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 765.58 million yuan. The market is mostly net inflows.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 325.75TH/s, which was slightly lower than yesterday (327.36TH/s), higher than the one-month average. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 68,900, which was close to a one-month low; the number of coins destroyed (279.20 million, historically small) was significantly higher than the previous day (598.39 million), but the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS hit a low of 3.7 US dollars in the early morning, and then rebounded weakly. It is currently oscillating around 3.8 US dollars and has not yet effectively broken below the support. The EOS/BTC transaction oscillated around the fall back to 0.00038 BTC, and the short-term performance was weaker.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 1,41,876,200 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday. Among them, the over-single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 8.1132 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 15.86 million yuan, between the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 75.109 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 24,066,900 yuan. There are differences in the market, mainly based on small singles.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has decreased, and the number of new Dapps has been 1. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users using Dice is 3k, which is -47.20% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour users of game PROSPECTORS is 2.6k, which is +2.74% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of data application Lumeos is 1.5k. Yesterday changed +0.20%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.3k, compared with yesterday's change -0.94%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

In the near term, the market is expected to step out of the upward trend.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

4. Google search trends

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

5. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

6. Coin-day destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

7. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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