QKL123 market analysis | megatrend has gone bad, miners are on the verge of loss (1125)

Abstract: Today, the market fell sharply, the main currency fell across the board, the altcoin fell sharply, and the market panic and risk aversion surged. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin has now fallen below its recent lows and is seriously deviating from the 200-day moving average. Miners are on the verge of losing money and the long-term trend is beginning to break (a high probability continues to bottom out).

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 25, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,305.121 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -9.03%, the total turnover was 796.614 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +54.79%. The market activity has increased significantly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 9151.02 points, up 24 hours to -8.98%, reflecting the rapid decline of the broader market; the bitcoin strength index was 96.82 points, 24 hours up +1.46%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market became stronger; The Alternative sentiment index was 17, which was lower than yesterday (21), and the market sentiment was still extremely fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BNB had the largest decline in 24 hours (-11.99%), and XLM had the smallest 24-hour decline (-2.28%). USDT has risen and fallen to -0.03% in 24 hours. Today's net outflow of funds was 81,925,500 yuan, which was significantly higher than yesterday. USDC's 24-hour ups and downs were +0.36%. Today's net inflow of funds was 11.27 million yuan, which was basically the same as yesterday; ChaiNext USDT was off-site. The discount premium index was reported at 100.84, with a 24-hour rise and fall of +0.77%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 79) has dropped from the previous value (peak 67), which is close to the one-month average. The rise in related queries is mostly related to the bitcoin plunge. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), South Africa (50), Austria (47), Switzerland (44), Germany (39), Ghana (38) and the Netherlands (36). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 100) rose sharply from the previous value (peak 30), hitting a new high, and the increase in related queries was mostly related to gambling.

Analyst's point of view:

Miners are important suppliers of crypto-asset markets (such as BTC). The main factors affecting miners' income include not only the price of encrypted assets and the total network computing power (affecting income factors), but also electricity, labor and mining prices. Cost factor). Among them, the price is a key factor affecting the income of miners, and electricity charges are the key factors affecting the cost of mining.

According to the QKL123 mining machine list, according to the current main parameters, the return period of the Bitcoin mining machine is more than 1000 days. Among the 38 bitcoin mining machines in the statistics, 16 mining machines are in a state of loss, and 16 mining machines have a daily profit of less than 10 yuan. Among them, the mainstream mining machines such as the ant mining machine S9 series and the Avalon A9 series have reached the break-even point.

At present, most bitcoin mining machines have begun to linger. If the profit (price) falls further, some miners will passively choose to shut down and even withdraw from mining activities. At that time, the market will face the selling pressure of miners, which will increase the price decline. . Mining accidents like the end of 2018 are likely to occur, but the risk of miners' selling pressure will be partially offset by the expected impact of a halving supply in May next year. First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, BTC's heavy volume has dropped rapidly. The daily RSI indicator shows a serious oversold, but there is no sign of stabilization in the short term, and the market is uncertain. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin has now fallen below its recent lows and is seriously deviating from the 200-day moving average, and the long-term trend is likely to go bad (continue to bottom out). From the perspective of the disk, if the short-term can not recover, the market will continue to explore the 6000 US dollars.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 142,076,200 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 202.6258 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 646.60 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. Outflow of 98.297 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 577.54 million yuan. There are differences in the market, and the main force is slightly more bullish, but the net outflow of funds in the middle is mostly.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 94.72EH/s, which was lower than the previous day. It was close to the one-month average. The mining came to the break-even point. Some mines had negative returns, and the risk of miner trampling increased. The active address on the chain. The number is 541,100, which is a decrease from the previous day, which is a one-month low; the trading volume on the chain is 822,800, which is lower than the previous day and lower than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed is 239.594.28 million (historical median value) ), the number of consecutive three-day currency destruction is high, and there is a certain risk of selling pressure in a short time.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH has fallen sharply and has fallen below the recent lows. It is currently near the support level of $135, and it is more likely to rebound in a short period of time.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 398.81 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 9,760,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 40,054,900 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 80.57 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 266.22 million yuan. The market is biased towards bearishness, with a small net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp decreased slightly. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.4k, 24-hour change -22.92%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 2.1k, 24 hours change +15.86%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC has fallen below the recent low, and is now above the support level of 40 dollars, short-term linkage of bitcoin.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 71.77 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 5,638,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 1014.53 yuan, and the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 134.445 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 90,219,700 yuan. There are big differences in the market, mainly based on the net outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 182.17TH/s, which was slightly higher than the previous day, close to the one-month average and close to the low of the year. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (51,900) decreased slightly from the previous day, approaching a one-month low; the number of coins destroyed was 8,180,300 (historically smaller), which was significantly lower than yesterday and below the one-month average.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS has a large decline, and recently it has dropped to the support level of 2.3 US dollars. It may have a short-term rebound.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 20,223.70 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 12.9122 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 2.791 million yuan, and the medium order (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 25.6444 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 160.8890 million yuan. The market is slightly bearish, with a small net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined. The number of 24-hour users of the game EOS Dynasty was 1.3, which was -7.08% compared with yesterday. The number of active users of Newdex's 24 hours was 759, which was -9.64%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC began to deteriorate, and the market will have a high probability of bottoming out. The rebound in recent days is not strong, and those with heavy positions can lighten their positions. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and the heavy position can be reduced by rallies.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Bitcoin is seriously deviating from the 200-day moving average. Those with heavy positions can lighten up their positions and wait for the market to bottom out.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term oversold rebound, risk enthusiasts rely on support can be small positions, low suction and high throw, break the stop loss.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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