QKL123 market analysis | Risk aversion surge, Bitcoin strong Hengqiang (0802)

Abstract: The international environment is changing, and the market risk aversion surges. The short-term BTC returns to $10,000 and the upper resistance is $11,000. Recently, the risk of selling the giant whales frequently still exists, and it is not advisable to chase after a short time.

According to QKL123 statistics, on August 2, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1969.26 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +3.06%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 356.872 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed – 2.90%, 24-hour market activity has decreased. The market value of BTC accounted for 65.17%, which was higher than yesterday (64.51%), and the market risk aversion increased significantly.

At 12 o'clock, the top ten crypto assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC has the largest increase in 24 hours (+4.35%), EOS has the largest decline in 24 hours (-0.69%); ETH has risen and fallen in +24% in 24 hours, LTC 24 hours Up and down +2.15%. The USDT rose by +0.15% for 24 hours, with a 24-hour turnover rate of 2.01%, and a slight increase in 24-hour off-exchange capital inflows.

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The Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 14929.79 points, up 24 hours to +2.25%; alternative.me sentiment index was 61, significantly higher than yesterday (57), the market performance was greedy. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend has increased significantly from yesterday, hitting a seven-day high.

Analyst's point of view: Due to changes in the international environment, the market risk aversion surged, and the short-term BTC stood firm at $10,000 to continue the upside. BTC has long been optimistic, but the short-term trend is ever-changing, and large funds, large amount of selling pressure and news will have an unpredictable impact on it. It is not advisable to chase after high in recent days because the risk of selling is still there.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday evening, BTC returned to 10,000 US dollars, and began to attack in the early hours of the morning, there is a short-term heavy volume, there is a tendency to continue to attack 11,000 US dollars. Recently, the giant whales in the chain have already acted, but the news does not support the move of the slap, and the short-term wait-and-see is the main, the rallies can be lighten up, and should not be chased high.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 34,792,262 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (-30,261,700 yuan). Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 364,509,200 yuan, and the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 1,044.55.1 million yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 146.626 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 621.6168 million yuan. The number of market positions has soared, with large orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 270 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 71.50EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (72.21EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 750,500, which continued to rise from the previous days, higher than the average of three months. Today’s currency-day destruction was 8,609,400 (historical normal), which was lower than yesterday’s (439.85 million). The number of BTC coins destroyed on the 29th (262 million) was the amount released since the mine disaster at the end of last year. It seems that the news has been There is no opportunity to release, and it is necessary to evade the risk of possible selling in recent days.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday to today, ETH was once again rushed from $210 to $220, and then fell quickly and re-emerged for a short time. The ETH/BTC transaction rebounded from around 0.021 BTC and is still close to this year's low.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 152,235,400 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 4738.21 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 99.846 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 2795.80 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 71.85 million yuan. The market is dominated by large orders and small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow (3,349 ETH) increased or decreased by +2.13% compared with yesterday, the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow (2,509 ETH) increased or decreased by -0.62% compared with yesterday; the game encryption hero's 24-hour active user The number (2,342) increased or decreased by +0.43% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (1,050) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by -0.10% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

In the early hours of the morning, LTC rushed to $100, and then went down and had a heavy volume around $98. At the same time, the LTC/BTC trading pair fell rapidly from 0.0099 BTC to 0.0093 BTC, which was relatively weak. Close to the near-term bottom point, the recent block halving is likely to be stronger.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 85,538,800 yuan, a decrease from yesterday (11128.62). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 29.8966 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 22,856,400 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 2,115.94 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 5,393,700 yuan. The market is still dominated by small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 3 days

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 493.48TH/s, which is higher than yesterday (427.46 TH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 77,900, a slight decrease from the previous day (78,000), lower than the average of two months. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (8729.82, the historical value), significantly increased from the previous day (162.783 million), the short-term LTC chain moves frequently, there is a certain risk of selling.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

The short-term EOS fluctuated between 4.2 and 4.4 USD, and it was heavy when it went up to 4.3 USD. After that, the amount could shrink and the willingness to attack was not strong. At present, the EOS/BTC trading pair has dropped from yesterday's 0.00043 BTC to 0.00041 BTC, returning to the near-term low point. There is no significant heavy volume and there is a renewed trend.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 747,800 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday (-2002.18 million). Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net flow of 739.46 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 22,836,300 yuan, between the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 17.1422 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 33.331 million yuan. The market has a lot of differences, and most of them are small.

2. Fundamentals

Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp increased slightly. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment games Texas Hold'em (1,254) increased or decreased by +0.64% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour total flow of trading platform DEXEOS (125,088 EOS) increased or decreased by -0.69% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

BTC is in the short-term partial adjustment stage, and the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years. The risk of selling pressure brought by the giant whales has not been lifted recently, and the rallies can be reduced or oversold. The BTC trading pair of the intelligent contract platform ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is also at a low level during the year. Currently, BTC is the main link.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term shocks to adjust the situation, there is the possibility of sucking up the market in recent days, but the possibility is decreasing, you can reduce the position and oversold the position.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

The short-term BTC downside risk still exists, and the downside space has increased, which can reduce the position and oversold the position. Currently, the BTC resistance is $11,000 and the support is $10,000. The ETH, LTC and EOS amplitudes are relatively large, depending on the direction of the BTC.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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