QKL123 market analysis | The liquidation of the "Mentougou" case is imminent, where is the nearly 140,000 bitcoin going? (0326)

Abstract: The broader market has fallen slightly, the market is clearly divided, and large-scale changes are brewing, and the short-term uncertainty is further increased. The six-year-old MT.Gox case may usher in liquidation, and nearly 140,000 bitcoins are among them. Regardless of the liquidation method, its whereabouts will cause short-term selling pressure on the market, which needs to be focused on in the near future.

At 10:30 today, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 9329.89 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -0.49%, reflecting a slight decline in the broader market; total turnover was 979.178 billion yuan, a 24-hour change of -5.79%, and market activity declined. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 101.89 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall of + 1.92%, and the relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has strengthened. The ChaiNext USDT OTC premium index was reported at 101.23. The 24-hour rise and fall were -0.95%, USDT. The OTC premium level has weakened.

Analyst perspective:

• Baidu super chain escorted, Haidian blockchain government landing accelerated, strive for 150 scenes in October
• Data: Correlation between gold and Bitcoin hits 10-month high, Bitcoin may usher in important price breakthrough
• Viewpoint | Bitcoin vs. Treasury Bonds: New Treasury Rage, Only U.S. Treasury Bonds Successfully Called "Haven"

Recently, a six-year-old Mentougou case started a time bomb that affected the market.

In February 2014, MT.Gox (Mentougou), then the world's largest Bitcoin trading platform, suddenly announced on the website that it would stop trading, and subsequently filed for bankruptcy. The price of bitcoin dropped sharply, and it was nearly cut off that week. According to reports, the cause of the failure may be a hacking attack, about 744,000 bitcoins were stolen, and there is also speculation of guarding theft. The big case six years ago is still under investigation, and the truth is still unclear.

During the process of the case being accepted, the client of MT.Gox assets, Nobuaki Kobayashi, has continuously sold bitcoin in the past, selling at least 35,000 bitcoins and bitcoin cash, which brought greater selling pressure to the market at the time. For example, between December 2017 and February 2018, Nobuaki Kobayashi sold 35,841 BTC and 34,008 BCH, with a total value of about $ 400 million, which exacerbated the continuous decline in the price of Bitcoin.

At present, there are nearly 140,000 bitcoins and bitcoin cash in the wallet address of the MT.Gox case, which is a potential time bomb left to the market. The day before, a liquidation draft on the Mentougou case surfaced. Whether it is fiat currency cash settlement or crypto asset liquidation, bitcoin is likely to enter the market. The deadline for submitting the rehabilitation plan for the Mentougou case is at the end of this month. It can be said that the time bomb in the Mentougou case has officially started. In the future, whether the draft is passed once or the liquidation is continued, investors should pay close attention to the progress of this event.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday to date, BTC adjusted sideways, long and short continue to stick, the amount can continue to shrink, four hours of MACD bonding, the market began to brew changes. The current position is more critical. If it can break up, the space above $ 6,900 will open. However, the recent moves that can't be attacked repeatedly indicate that the pressure above is greater, and the risk is greater than the return, so wait and see.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH has converged after the previous big drop, and the overall trend is not as good as BTC. Today, the shock converged and converged, and a relatively large level of change began to be brewed in a short time. Pay attention to avoid risks.

Third, the spot BCH market

Recently, the overall trend of BCH is stronger than that of ETH. At present, it is on the 220-dollar chip concentration area, which may be affected by the expected halving in April. Today, there are too many capital inflows, and it will continue to be linked with BTC in the short term.

Fourth, the spot LTC market

LTC continued to shrink adjustments, MACD was glued near the zero axis, long and short continued to stick, and a short-term change is also brewing.

V. Spot EOS Quotes

EOS continued to oscillate around $ 2.3 today, and the volume and amplitude of the EOS continued to shrink. Today, there was a significant divergence in the net inflow of funds in the market today, and short-term uncertainty was greater.

Six, spot ETC market

Since yesterday, ETC has performed similarly. The pending order price of USD 5.2 above has been released. At present, it is brewing in the area where the chips are concentrated, and it may be changed in a short time.

Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is bad, but the price is not far from the bottom, it is a good time for Tun Coin to invest. You can refer to the coin storage indicator . The smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, and ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2. Midline (January to March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for Bitcoin to get out of the bottom in a short period of time, and those with small positions intervene in batches.

3． Short-term (1-3 days)

Long and short continue to cling to each other, there may be a short-term change, wait and see.

Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin in the market. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely fearful" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

6.BTC-coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39. %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

We will continue to update Blocking; if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact us!