QKL123 market analysis | The trend starts to go bad, is it a good time to make a decision? !! (1127)
Abstract: The market's shrinking volume fluctuated, Bitcoin dropped slightly, and altcoins were slightly stronger. Yesterday, the computing power of BTC's entire network significantly decreased, indicating that there are signs of miners down or miners exiting. If the price cannot be repaired in time, miners face the risk of stamping out. For long-term investors, the current price is already cheap enough, and it is a good time to invest regularly.
According to QKL123 data statistics, at 13:00 on November 27, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,408.496 billion yuan, and the 24-hour total market value increased or decreased by -0.23%. The total turnover was 472.122 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -27.04%. , The market activity has dropped significantly. The Babbitt Composite Index was at 9823.27 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -1.86%, reflecting a slight decline in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index at 96.50 points, a 24-hour rise or fall of -0.66%, the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has changed slightly Weak; Alternative sentiment index is 20 (previous value 21), market sentiment is still extremely fearful.
Among the top ten crypto assets by market value (excluding USDT), BSV has the largest decline in 24-hours (-3.76%), and XLM has the largest rise in 24-hours (+ 5.95%). USDT's 24-hour price change was + 0.03%. Today's net outflow of funds was 47.853 million yuan, a reversal from yesterday; USDC's 24-hour price change was -0.16%, and today's net capital inflow was 16.55976 million, a reversal from yesterday; ChaiNext USDT The over-the-counter discount premium index was reported at 100.39, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 0.01%.
In the past day, the relative value of the global Google search (peak 100) of Bitcoin increased significantly from the previous value (peak 86), approaching a one-month high. The top seven countries in terms of popularity are Nigeria (100), Germany (62), Austria (57), Luxembourg (53), Switzerland (49), Ghana (44) and South Africa (44). The rise in related queries is related to Bitcoin Suisse, a Swiss-based crypto asset financial services company. In the past day, the relative value of Google search (peak 61) of global Ethereum dropped significantly from the previous value (peak 100). The rise of related queries is related to quiz.
Switzerland is one of the pioneers in the development and scale adoption of crypto asset payment service systems. On the 11th, Swiss company Bitcoin Suisse and Worldline signed a cooperation agreement to provide encrypted payment services for Swiss entities and online merchants and consumers. Currently, 65,000 merchants based on the Worldline Payment Infrastructure (SIX Payment Services) will receive this service. In the future, Bitcoin Suisse plans to promote crypto asset payment services across Europe. On the 25th, Bitcoin Suisse reached a cooperation with Ellington Properties, one of Dubai's major real estate developers, to provide them with crypto asset payment services to facilitate customers' purchase of Dubai properties based on crypto assets.
At present, the price of bitcoin has deviated significantly below the 200-day moving average, and the market trend has started to deteriorate. If it cannot be recovered in time (in recent days), the market will likely hit a new low. Investors have to control their risks in accordance with their own circumstances. The decision-making process is not just a simple long and short. For those with heavy positions, there may be lower prices waiting for investors in the near future, so when the trend goes bad, you can appropriately reduce your positions and wait for a high probability of the bottom to intervene at a lower price to lower the purchase cost.
However, for long-term investors, the current price below the 200-day moving average is already cheap enough, it can be said that it is a good time to start regular investment (light warehouse installment), rather than waiting for the so-called market bottom. On the one hand, fixed investment can outperform most investors, let alone at a low stage; on the other hand, the market is the result of incomplete information games, and no one knows where the bottom of the market is and whether the price is high or Behind the low is probability. Moreover, the most important point is that human fear and greed often make people miss the market low or even high takeover.
First, the spot BTC market
Yesterday so far, BTC has fluctuated in the range of $ 7,000 to $ 7,500, and the short-term shrinkage has fallen slightly, or it will recharge to $ 7,500. From the historical trend point of view, bitcoin has severely deviated from the 200-day moving average and has been repaired. It is necessary to continue to observe the short-term repair situation of the market, otherwise the market will continue to test $ 6,000.
As of 15:00, BTC's net inflow of funds today was 40.04035 million yuan. Among them, the net outflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 94.9875 million yuan, the net inflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 81.7670 million yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) The inflow was RMB 35,263,300, and the net inflow of small orders (under RMB 50,000) was RMB 60,991,000. The market is quite divergent and the main force is short, but most of the net inflow of Chinese single funds.
Yesterday, the average hashrate of BTC's entire network was 74.28EH / s, which fell sharply from the previous day and was lower than the three-month average. Mining faces losses. Some miners started to stop or withdraw, and the risk of miners stepping on the chain increased. Number of active addresses on the chain. It is 755,700, which is a slight increase from the previous day, higher than the one-month average; the on-chain transaction volume is 1,117,300, which is a decrease from the previous day, and is close to the one-month average; the number of coin days destroyed is 8.973 million (smaller historical value), in recent days The number of destruction of Bintian is high, and there is a certain risk of selling pressure in the short term.
Second, the spot ETH market
Yesterday, ETH reached a maximum of 150 US dollars, and the lowest reached 143 US dollars. The short-term linkage BTC range mainly fluctuated. At the beginning of next month (expected on December 07), Ethereum will be upgraded in Istanbul. It may be fermented recently, and it may go out of a relatively independent market.
As of 15:00, today's net inflow of funds for ETH was 15.9951 million yuan. Among them, the net outflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 15.1143 million yuan, the net inflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 54.052 million yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) were net inflows. The inflow was 22.36 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (under 50,000 yuan) was 45.304 million yuan. The market is severely divided, with a large number of mainstays, most of which are large inflows.
Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity level of the 24-hour ETH DApp has picked up. The number of 24-hour active users of the game application My Crypto Heroes is 3.1k, with a 24-hour change of + 11.92%; the number of 24-hour active users of the financial application MakerDAO is 2.4k, with a 24-hour change of + 37.71%.
Third, the spot LTC market
Yesterday, the highest rebound of LTC was 48 US dollars, after which the contraction amount fluctuated slightly, and short-term linkage BTC was the main.
As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 22,924.6 thousand yuan. Among them, the net outflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 8.548 million yuan, the net outflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 1,174.54 yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) had net outflows. 96.647 million yuan, small orders (under 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 103.759 million yuan. The market is consistently bearish, with small single net outflows mostly.
Yesterday, the average network computing power of LTC was 165.75 TH / s, a slight increase from the previous day, close to a one-month low, and close to the year's low, the trend is downward. On August 05, the computing power decreased after the block reward was halved. At present, there is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low point of the beginning of the year, the risk of treading is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (93,100) increased sharply from the previous day, and was close to a one-month high. The number of coin days destroyed was 7.2720 million (smaller historical value), a sharp drop from yesterday, and the risk of short-term selling pressure was small.
Fourth, the spot EOS market
Earlier this morning, EOS reached a maximum of 2.6 US dollars. Recently, the overall volume has fluctuated, and has not yet broken the upper resistance level.
As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 3.121747 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 741,800 yuan, the net inflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 6,702,900 yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) had net inflows. Outflow of RMB 27.117 million, small net (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 115.5550 million yuan. There are differences in the market, and there are more mainstreams, with net outflows of retail funds being the mainstay.
According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has picked up. The number of 24-hour users of the game EOS Dynasty is 1.3k, a change of + 14.53% from yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of the trading application Newdex is 939, a + 3.87% change from yesterday.
V. Analyst Strategy
1. Long line (1-3 years)
The long-term trend of BTC has begun to deteriorate. If the market rebounds and weakens, those with heavy positions can reduce their positions on rallies, and those without heavy positions can choose to vote. The relative price of BTC of smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, and DPoS leader EOS is close to the year's low. Those with heavy positions can reduce their positions on high prices, and those without heavy positions can choose fixed investment.
2. Midline (January to March)
Bitcoin has been repaired after it deviated from the 200-day moving average. Those with heavy positions can lighten up on rallies, and those without heavy positions wait and see.
3． Short-term (1-3 days)
The market is unstable, wait and see.
Appendices-Interpretation of Indicators
Babbitt Composite Index
The Babbitt Comprehensive Index (8BTCCI) is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global blockchain market, in order to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.
2.Bitcoin Strength Index
The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin in the market. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger Bitcoin is in the Token market.
3.Alternative mood index
The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely scared" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).
4.USDT OTC Premium Index
The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.
5. Google search trends
This refers to the Google web search data results. The relative search value in the specified time and area: the hottest score is 100, the hottest score is 50, and the insufficient data is 0. Note: The higher the score of a country, the higher the search term in all local search terms, and it does not mean that the absolute search times are greater.
6.Net Funds Inflow (Out)
This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global exchanges (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow of funds when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow when falling.
7.Coin days destroyed
Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days that Bitcoins are held. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. Classification of the number of days of BTC coin destruction: 100 million or more is the maximum value; 50 million to 100 million is the larger value; 10 million to 50 million is the median value; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value value. Classification of the number of days of destruction of LTC coins: a maximum value of 500 million or more; a large value of 100 million to 500 million; a median value of 50 million to 100 million; a smaller value of 50 million or less.
8.Number of active addresses on the chain
The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses where transactions have occurred in the on-chain addresses of the blockchain. Under normal circumstances, this indicator can reflect the on-chain activity level of a public chain. Off-chain demand activities such as secondary market transactions and wallet usage will have a greater impact on it.
Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.