Revisiting 2020, Bitcoin wants to say
Editor's Note: This article has been deleted without altering the author's original intention.
According to the data released by the National Health and Medical Commission's website at 24:00 on February 10: At 04:00 on February 10, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported that 2,478 new cases were confirmed (2097 in Hubei). ), 849 severe cases (839 cases in Hubei), 108 death cases (103 cases in Hubei, 1 in Beijing, Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, and Henan), and 3536 suspected cases (1814 in Hubei). .
In other words, the number of new cases of new coronary pneumonia diagnosed daily in non-Hubei regions nationwide has declined for 7 consecutive days. Just by comparing the data, we can be sure: At present, the number of newly confirmed cases in Wuhan is declining, the number of newly confirmed cases in non-Wuhan is also falling, and the number of newly confirmed cases is also declining.
Academician Zhong Nanshan also spoke yesterday. The turning point is approaching. In mid-to-late February, the first peak may soon pass. From the earliest data given by foreign medical scientists R0 to 3.8, to today through government intervention, the latest data is 2.2. This shows that the situation is getting better and better.
The latest thesis of Academician Zhong Nanshan shows that super virus spreaders may have a 24-day incubation period, so whether the inflection point has been crossed, the new crown pneumonia is determined from January 21, and there is a countdown of about 4 days, which is this weekend. The inflection point signal can be basically determined.
Keeping Wuhan will keep China, and keeping China will keep the world.
It is the first case in the modern history of mankind to encircle the city with a mooring virus, regardless of economic cost, but it is very effective. According to the sense of the data, the outbreak has been controlled by the government, and it is actually in the stage of attack and consolidation. As predicted by my previous article, the next big time point will be in early March, but the number of newly diagnosed patients will be much less than the high point of the previous few days.
Compared with the loss that Sars has brought to the Chinese economy, I tend to think that the loss to the Chinese economy this time will be about 0.5%. If we simply calculate that China's GDP in 2019 has reached 100 trillion yuan, and the UN's latest economic growth rate for China in 2020 is estimated to be above 6%, then the entire economic shutdown for 14 days is equivalent to a full year of loss. The economy is 3.84%, and it is expected that the country will resume work at an average of 50% in the next 20 days by the end of February. It can be roughly calculated that China's economic growth in 2020 will still be 5.6%.
You know, even so, it is estimated that China's economic growth in 2020 will be only slightly lower than that of India, and it will become the second largest economy with the second fastest growth rate in the world. If you put it in other countries and treat the virus in accordance with the Chinese government's approach, it will basically be over.
So far, the Singapore government's attitude towards the virus has been laissez-faire, treating new coronary pneumonia as flu, and requiring patients to isolate themselves and heal themselves, because the government cannot afford the economic losses caused by isolation and blockade. You should know that Singapore's economic growth rate in 2020 was originally estimated to be 0.9%. If the Chinese government's approach is followed, it will basically be a dead end, which will be a devastating blow to the country's economy.
Just yesterday, Putin said that in response to the epidemic, Russia will provide China with all possible assistance and its relations with China are at an unprecedented highest level. Due to the impact of the Chinese epidemic, Russia's GDP growth will be limited to about 0.1% in 2020, and some sectors directly or indirectly related to the movement of people will be devastated, such as air transport, tourism, hotel services and shopping and entertainment. Center and other industries.
The Fed stated that it “will continue to monitor the impact of various types of information on the economic prospects and evaluate the trend of appropriate interest rates.” The current interest rate level is to support the continued expansion of economic activities, a strong labor market, and the target of rising inflation to 2%. It is appropriate to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged.
In addition to the top 10 economies in the world, in addition to the rapid growth of China and India under the influence of the epidemic, the remaining eight countries may be limited to within 0.5% -2%. The World Bank had expected the global economy to grow by 2.5% in 2020.
There are also a large number of overseas companies, eagerly waiting for China to resume work. Take Hyundai South Korea as an example. Its factories are all in China. The current irrecoverable work under the influence of the epidemic will cause its productivity to decline in a wide range. In the foreseeable future, if the resumption time is prolonged or the rate of resumption is low, then Hyundai is likely to go to the brink of bankruptcy.
As a result of this epidemic, Apple lost $ 27 billion in market value in one day. Now almost all electronic products in the world are made in China. China's non-resumption means that the world's production capacity is limited. The shutdown of Tesla's Shanghai plant has also caused delays in Model 3 delivery. Hubei is a key supply region for global auto parts. Global auto-related companies have been hit hard this time.
Almost all foreign companies are discussing solutions. Establishing a replacement factory in Southeast Asia may be a direction, but what to do after the crisis? Whether to endure the inefficiency of Southeast Asian countries to diversify risks or continue to bet on China's continued high efficiency will become a problem for all large enterprises.
China's stock market obviously suffered a plunge in the opening of the market early last week, after which the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded from its lowest point of 2685. Has the market really started to show optimism? I will put a question mark. This fall and rebound is more similar to a round of washing up in the country. The national team carried out a round of massacres, and the capital was accelerating closer to the leader.
As far as I know, before the Spring Festival, the national team had poor information in the face of the epidemic situation, and thus carried out a large-scale layout. The economic response of the epidemic to stocks is far from the end of the battle. To be more straightforward, it may be just the beginning. The continued decline in the future is almost an inevitable result.
In the previous article, I mentioned that in the face of the epidemic, the Chinese government may adopt an accelerated RRR cut and reverse repurchase to provide the market with liquidity to keep the economy. As a result, the central bank provided 1.7 trillion yuan two days later. Open market operations put liquidity.
During these two days, I saw that some so-called economists proposed quantitative easing to the country to address the economic impact of the epidemic. Basically, they are just talking casually without touching the market. Over the past two decades, the Chinese economy has been increasing leverage until 2016, when it began to reduce leverage. However, data from 2018 and 2019 show that the leverage ratio of Chinese households is much higher than normal.
What does it mean? To put it bluntly, big risks have been passed on from state-owned enterprises to nationals, from concentrated outbreak risks to controllable decentralized risks. However, the leverage ratio of local governments is still at an historically high level, so it is interesting to come. Now, if you increase leverage, who will pay the bill?
Blessings are in the place of misfortune, and blessings are in the place of misfortune.
China ’s economy has grown from an average growth rate of 10% in the past two decades to 8% in the past two years. In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, it has dropped to a possible 5.6%. Never seen now, this is a huge man-made disaster accelerating to help the Chinese economy deleverage.
Adjustment is always accompanied by severe pain, but long pain is not as good as short pain. Each disaster accompanies the country's leap to the next stage.
But the next stage of the epidemic may be faced by the whole world. After all, there are few countries in the world that can control the epidemic like China. The epidemic in China is likely to be fully controlled by the end of February, and China's economy will soon be liberated Come out, and in March this wave needs to worry more about the development of the epidemic situation outside China, to what extent will it develop without strong government control.
Will 2020 gradually bring people back to the perspective of mainstream society with the gradual control of the epidemic? I regret to give a judgement that the epidemic is only the beginning of 2020, and more difficult ones will appear later.
Let's first look back at 2001. The most famous event of that year was 9/11. The world's largest reinsurance company, Munich, has published a report that pointed out that natural disasters caused at least 25,000 deaths worldwide in 2001, more than double the number in 2000. It was then the worst man-made disaster year in insurance history. All events in the world's top 20 insured losses in 2001 occurred before 911.
In 2001, almost all of the top 20 natural disasters in the world occurred before 911, except for the typhoon event that occurred in the Philippines in November of that year. American scientists have begun to study this phenomenon further, what forces changed the Earth's model after 9/11.
Harvard scientists have come up with a theory called human emotions resonating with the Earth's magnetic field. A simple understanding of this theory is that everyone knows that the moon has an impact on the earth's tidal energy. The ancient Chinese geography book Shan Hai Jing has mentioned the relationship between the tide and the moon. In the Eastern Han Dynasty, Wang Chong clearly stated in his book "On the Balance" that "the rise of the Tao also rises and falls with the moon." But it wasn't until Newton's discovery of the law of gravity that Laplace mathematically proved that the tidal phenomenon was indeed caused by the gravitational pull of the sun and the moon, mainly the moon.
If there are countless tiny sands that make up a star with a mass similar to the moon, and the moon is located in the universe relative to the earth, will this star have the same tidal energy impact on the earth? According to the law of universal gravitation, the magnitude of gravity is proportional to the product of the masses of two objects, and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them. This assumption is true.
It is assumed that these countless tiny sands are the brain waves emitted from our human brain consciousness. When its energy frequency is highly unified, the magnetic field formed will resonate with the Earth's magnetic field, thereby strengthening or weakening the degree of natural disasters. The reverse is also true. Natural disasters around the world will also affect human brain waves.
According to a 2003 report by the Munich Reinsurance Company, the number of people who died of various natural disasters in the world in 2003 was five times that of 2002, and more than 50,000 people were killed by extreme weather such as earthquakes, floods, and snowstorms. Munich Re said in an annual review: "From a meteorological perspective, many natural disasters that occurred this year would have been impossible, such as fires in Australia, floods in Brazil and Turkey, snow disasters in central and southern Europe, and Typhoon in Singapore. This shows that there is a link between climate change and natural disasters. "
We all know that Sars epidemic shocked the world around the New Year 2003 in China. And this 2003 report seems to be a foretaste of a possible natural disaster in the future. From historical data, human and natural disasters always travel together. This is not the case. In addition to the new crown pneumonia, the Australian fire has dominated the global headlines throughout January.
The European heat wave that occurred in mid-2003 caused the highest temperature in 150 years in France, making Paris the hottest city in Europe at that time. It caused 506 deaths in Paris and 315 in London. Later, according to research analysis, more than 70,000 people in Europe died prematurely due to the heat wave.
Over the past 20 years, the total amount of economic losses caused by natural and man-made disasters worldwide has been increasing. A report from Aeon Insurance Company of the United States at the end of last month showed that the global economic losses caused by natural disasters reached a record $ 3 trillion in the past 10 years, an increase of more than $ 1 trillion over the previous 10 years.
2019 is the second highest year on record for global land and ocean temperatures. A total of 409 natural disasters occurred worldwide, with a total loss of $ 232 billion, of which $ 71 billion was covered by insurance plans. In the past 10 years, almost every year has been a new year of natural disaster losses.
In the past 20 years, from the huge heat waves in 2003, 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2019, studies have found that European heat waves are becoming more intense and more frequent due to climate change. The heat wave in July 2019 was extremely extreme on the Western European continent. Scientists from the World Weather Attribution Group say that observing heat waves at this level would be "extremely impossible" without climate change.
As early as the beginning of 19, the extremely cold weather brought by global warming led to low temperatures of minus 40 degrees Celsius in 22 states across the United States, eventually affecting more than 300 million people. The scene is like the doomsday movie "The Day After Tomorrow".
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the "polar vortex" located above the North Pole was unstable, which caused the cold air that usually gathers in the North Pole to southward and invade the United States, bringing a 19-year super-strong cold wave. The warming of the Arctic is causing changes in the "polar vortex" of jets from the cold zone and pushing polar air to low latitudes, resulting in extreme cold weather in large areas of the northeast and midwestern United States.
Is such a thing possible in China? I think it is very likely. New crown pneumonia may only be a test for the Chinese government in 2020. In the coming year, the huge sadness caused by the Chinese people due to the epidemic may trigger natural resonance. The Sichuan earthquake may only be the beginning, and the western region will appear more frequently. Various natural disasters. By the end of 2020, northern China may face unprecedented extreme cold weather caused by climate warming. This will once again test the Chinese government's emergency strategy capabilities and political governance capabilities in the face of disasters.
If such dimensions as northern China are severely affected by climate warming, the United States, Russia and Canada, and most of Europe may not be immune. Whether it is the European heat wave or the global cold, in the coming year, the epidemic may be just the beginning, because Pandora's box has been opened a century ago.
The winter iscoming , winter is coming. 2020 may be the worst year for natural and man-made disasters in human history in the past century. If superimposed on the imminent collapse of the global economy, it is destined to write a heavy stroke for human history in the next decade.
I don't know if everyone has paid attention to this epidemic. The country has overcame the time, and the way the country decided to adopt three days ago is "one province, one city". This is not a trick. It not only reflects the high-level test of the ability of national high-level governments of various provinces, cities, and local governments, but also conducts a comprehensive investigation of local political elites in front of the people of the country; Let localities solve the epidemic situation in Hubei.
In fact, the practice of "one province, one land" for emergency medical rescue nationwide, including this one, has occurred four times in the past two decades of history.
In the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, the central government called for national efforts to rebuild the Wenchuan earthquake area, and established a counterpart support mechanism based on the principle of "one province helping one disaster-hit county". In November 2009, the H1N1 influenza virus was epidemic, and the task of medical treatment was very arduous. The Ministry of Health arranged “a province to help a province”, large provincial general hospitals with conditions and primary medical institutions without such conditions. Counterpart support. In June 2010, a catastrophic earthquake occurred in Yushu, Qinghai. The central government organized construction and construction assistance and transportation tasks, and established a “one province, one place” counterpart support mechanism.
However, in this "one province and one city" counterpart support, only one province is missing, and this province is Fujian.
Why is Fujian so special?
A key point for 2020, one of the world's largest black swan incidents, has been mentioned in many of my articles over the past year. If you think carefully, you can see the context.
Since the Hong Kong incident last year, the two sides have been rehearsing. Whether it is support from the United States or a series of public opinion wars and secret financial wars, they are just warming up for 2020. At the beginning of the new year, the United States beheaded Kassim Suleimani, an important figure in the Iranian military, triggering a sudden escalation of tension between the United States and Iran. I mentioned that this is a step to cover the best way for the United States to retreat from the already dilapidated Middle East battlefield.
Since then, Iran has directly fired more than 10 missiles at U.S. military bases in retaliation. Is it possible to turn into a total war? In Iran's size, it is more than the sum of Afghanistan and Iraq. It is impossible for the United States not to know that the war against Iran will drag the American economy to another quagmire. On the other hand, with Iran's current military strength, it is still vulnerable to the US military. So neither side has the motivation to play further.
Iran is just a pawn that the U.S. plays against the West, because the United States' strategic focus in the coming year will return to the Asia-Pacific region, and this battlefield is already on the horizon.
On January 11, the elections in a certain region came to an end, and the DPP female chairman of the region was elected as the regional leader. The leader showed relatively extreme remarks, refused to acknowledge the region's past "consensus", and called on all parties in the region to unite and not accept the mainland's offer. Her point is that the mainland will inevitably communicate with the region on an equal basis, and can even achieve the purpose of fighting for so-called regional sovereignty.
Without the support of the United States, I think she would not be so arrogant. The United States has taken strong intervention in the past, putting the complexity of this long struggle at the top of the global geopolitical struggle. Who is elected is not the decisive factor in the direction of this struggle, but it means that changes in the stage scene will affect the staged plot, and it also means coping with the test of uncertainty.
But for the United States, the problems that need to be faced in 2020 may be more prominent. The huge economic uncertainty and Trump's eager re-election will weaken him.
In the past, we have always said that when the economy is uncertain, if we need to divert our attention, we will adopt the method of war. On the one hand, it will be highly integrated with the will of the country, on the other hand, it is also a good way to stimulate the cost of economic transfer. The United States has tried this trick repeatedly. Today, on the one hand, the uncertainty in the region is obviously increasing, and on the other hand, the supporters behind it are likely to pull away.
If a war occurs, the best way is local warfare, rather than full-scale warfare. Because everyone has no time to consume, and no such financial support is consumed on the eve of the Great Depression. But if we must fight, there is only one result, which is to win. After all, we have half the move to move first.
From the expected economic growth in 2020, the significant differences between the two can be determined that the pressures they bear are completely different; the physical scope of this local war has determined that it is a quick decision, even breathing No time is given to each other. This battle will eventually become a huge turning point in the rotation of civilizations between the East and the West. After all, Wen Dou's cracked cake still needs martial arts to close it, or leave it to mind, this is going to happen indefinitely.
Throughout history, 2020 may be a once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity.
Based on the specific point in time of this incident, my judgment last year was mid-2020. But at the beginning of the new year, there was a man-made disaster such as New Crown Pneumonia that shocked the world. Is it possible to delay time? It is possible, but no later than August, after all, the result is dedicated to the golden autumn in October.
How to judge the possibility of this black swan?
On February 9, Zhang Chunhui, a spokesman for the Eastern Theater, spoke on the sea and air combat readiness cruise. This is the first time that the Eastern Theater has released relevant military operations in 2020. In his conversation, the usual wording “normal arrangements in the annual plan” was missing, but the target was directly stated. "We have always sought a peaceful way to achieve reunification, and now it seems that our sincerity for peace will not receive the response we deserve."
The news that the eastern theater has suddenly organized a large fleet battle readiness cruise has quietly become Baidu's hot search. And all this was covered in the shadow of the new crown pneumonia, and was deliberately low-key ignored.
If my judgment is correct, 2020 will become the union of 1919, 1929 and 1939. The mountain rain is coming to the wind, and man-made disasters, natural disasters and war will become the main theme of human society in the coming year.
Who is most likely to survive this huge mess? I think only Bitcoin is the most qualified to speak.
Under the influence of the new crown pneumonia, the index of Baidu search bitcoin price increase on February 9 soared 270% year-on-year, and the search index in the past 30 days also rose 70%. In January, Google ’s search volume for "half bitcoin" skyrocketed by a factor of five, the highest level since the 2016 Bitcoin halving cycle. Although the search volume for "Bitcoin Halving" is still much lower than "Bitcoin". According to Google Trends, the search volume of "Bitcoin" itself is at least 30 times that of "Bitcoin Halving".
On February 7, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced its record 2019 results on a conference call in the fourth quarter of 2019. ICE's fourth quarter earnings per share (EPS) increased by 1% year-on-year, from $ 0.94 / share to $ 0.95 / share. Bakkt was identified as a key growth initiative.
Although according to the data on the official website of ICE, during the week of January 20-24, the trading volume of Bitcoin options products of Bakkt was zero, and there have been no transactions for more than 10 days. However, the week of September 23, where the Bakkt Bitcoin futures trading started, seems similar to today's situation. The market is gradually becoming familiar with the product and it takes a process, and large trading institutions will wait and see before entering.
Just like the process I described in the article "2020, Bitcoin has something to say to you", I will revisit 2020 today, and the time will be more and more certain. This round of Bitcoin's rise itself has a relationship with the halving cycle, but the relationship is not very large. After all, the search volume gap between Bitcoin and Bitcoin's halving cycle is 30 times.
This shows that traditional funds are still waiting to see, or that they are about to move, but there is no large-scale entry. Let's take a look at the rising curve of Bitcoin now. In the coming year, I still do not think that ordinary people will regard Bitcoin as a refuge product, and that they have cognitive impairments.
When the economy is uncertain, a large number of traditional funds will choose the leading players in the stock market for capital games. Because the relative certainty is high, the liquidity will be better. In fact, both Chinese A-shares and US stocks have shown such a trend. Tesla started to rise at a phased bottom of almost $ 177 in June 19, but when did you hear about his stock news? It was January 20 years. Because it rose from a maximum of $ 436 at the beginning of the month to nearly $ 969. The entire upward curve almost coincides with Bitcoin in the second half of 2017.
Why is Tesla important? Because it will drive a huge economic ecology, representing the future and the next industry cycle. Therefore, when the economy is uncertain, large funds are more willing to play games in it. Just like Apple 20 years ago, it opened up a series of new industrial economic ecology.
Why not choose Bitcoin? Because so far, there is still no significant wealth-building effect. This is the same for large-scale traditional funds. A large-scale fund with a corresponding peer volume must enter the market in order to play. Wall Street bookmakers aren't stupid enough to pick up orders for retail investors. So is it possible to rush up in 2020? I will remain skeptical.
Under uncertainty, traditional Bitcoin is just a speculative variety, and the market value of such a speculative product is still too small to carry out large-scale capital speculation. I have seen many Bitcoin analysts on Wall Street make judgments on the price of Bitcoin in the future. Every now and then, this year, Bitcoin is 50,000 dollars and 100,000 dollars because of the halving cycle. Basically, people who do not understand the market, there is basically no difference between listening to them and listening to an aunt.
Many friends will ask me, when the U.S. stock or A-share plunges, will the funds flow back from the digital currency to the stock market or from the stock market to the digital currency. This question is actually very simple, it is to look at the market capitalization volume. Is it easier for US stocks or A shares? Is it easy to pull A shares or bitcoin? Is Bitcoin easy to pull or Tesla easy to pull?
The answer is obvious. The Tesla market, which began in the second half of 19, pulled Tesla's stock from a market value of $ 33 billion at the bottom of June last year to a market value of up to $ 180 billion in January. Obviously, the cost of capital will be lower and the income will be lower. higher. When Bitcoin rises from $ 6,500 to $ 16,000, with a market value of nearly $ 300 billion, it will attract a wave of mainstream funds to enter the market and begin a long-term layout.
By the middle of this year, when the trading volume of Bitcoin options on the Bakkt Exchange also rises, the market will start to be active again, but the first wave of mainstream funds coming in will kill more first. As I mentioned earlier, war and economic uncertainty will increase the tendency for the black swan to take off, and will also provide news basis for the long and short kills of funds. After the decline is adjusted, the market will introduce the concept of "digital gold" again, bringing the rise of Bitcoin to all possible uncertainties.
Faith arises from the double-killing double kill. Those who survive will witness the glory of Bitcoin in the next phase.
Compared to Bitcoin, we actually look at Ethereum. The last weekly line 8 Lianyang happened to occur at this time point in January 2017, and then two callback points appeared, until the first cycle was completed in mid-June. 7 Ethereum weekly lines have now appeared 7 consecutive Yang. The first platform point 250 is already very close. Is it possible that the callback now appears for this week's long and short double kill?
The Bakkt exchange has also recently expressed hints that it will launch Ethereum-related financial derivatives. In the medium term, DeFi will be a very good application scenario. Just two days ago, the DeFi assets on Ethereum exceeded $ 1 billion. Just a few months ago, this figure was only $ 10 million. The amount of collateral so far exceeds 3 million Ethereum. The distributed financial derivative scenario is a market worth over one trillion dollars, and it is still far from being officially started.
By the end of this year, Ethereum's PoS upgrade is successful. When Bakkt Exchange launches the corresponding financial derivatives, it will enter the scope of investment targets for mainstream funds.
The concept of "digital silver" in Ethereum will eventually be finalized by the end of 2020 and early 2021.
So the question is, in the next stage, what should the story of the blockchain tell? A long time ago, I always emphasized that, for the blockchain, the real value is neither the data given by a certain organization nor the big data of the Internet. The core should be distributed "consensus data".
After this epidemic, I believe that everyone can understand how important "consensus data" is. Only when consensus data is generated can trust be generated to the greatest extent, thereby increasing efficiency and reducing costs. The bottom layer carrying "consensus data" will apply financial scenarios based on distributed data to all aspects of life, and such a bottom layer will become the bottom-level application system of the blockchain world.
When the human world is facing huge disruptions caused by human calamities, natural disasters, and wars, it is when the blockchain digital currency rises that Bitcoin will lead humans from the stock currency to the incremental currency of the machine network.
2020 is the first year of the new god, and faith is thus opened.