Viewpoint | Ethereum plunged, it is time to throw away the illusion that Ethereum has skyrocketed again

The retired declaration of the speculative tycoon Soros in Davos, Switzerland on January 12, 2015, said: "The history of the world economy is a series based on illusions and lies. To gain wealth, the practice is to recognize its illusion and invest in it. Then exit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public."

So how can we recognize the truth?

There are two steps to recognize the truth. The first thing to do is to guess that others are guessing that the target is going up, and secondly to be able to maintain a bias against other people's prejudice.

Therefore, it can be summarized as: the guess of the guess and the prejudice bias are roughly equal to the truth of the real world.

In this respect, V God is doing very well, and it is worth learning, learning, and learning.

how to say?

Someone asked V God at the Ethereum Summit held in June this year. How do you see the performance of the eos main online line? V God did not explicitly say how eos can't do it. The reply means almost the same as he guessed. You see v God had some guesses about the oes guessed by the public, and more importantly, v God is not so optimistic about the public's optimistic eos. You see, is V's attitude toward eos a speculative guess and biased prejudice?

Indeed, the fact is also true, V God said the truth. A lot of leeks are waiting for the oes, the truth is that the eos main online line is so good after the super good, because all the benefits are difficult to cover the main network landing, eos did not bring you blockchain 3.0 The big bang.

The blockchain starts at 1.0 on October 31, 2008. This day is destined to be a day that must go down in history. Nakamoto has creatively published the Bitcoin white paper "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System" on the cryptographic mailing list on the website.

It is necessary for us to emphasize that many people who have copied coins have not read the white paper of Bitcoin without missing a word. Even after reading it, the system word in the white paper title is often ignored.

Three years later, the 17-year-old Russian-born Canadian V God first learned about Bitcoin from his father's mouth, but at the time he didn't care too much about this "strange" thing, because in his view, Bitcoin has no essential value. . V God used btc to treat eos.

However, with the deep understanding of Bitcoin, V God began to realize the value of this decentralized system, but also realized the limitations of Bitcoin, "People can use blockchain technology to do more things, and It is not simply creating a single point-to-point currency, so he wants to build a world computer.

On January 23, 2014, another day that must go down in history. In its co-founded "Bitcoin Magazine", V officially released the Ethereum white paper "Ethereum: The Next Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform."

But the truth is that the vision of the world of computers is not easy to achieve. Now the 5-year-old Ethereum has experienced too much. In the past year alone, core developers have left, Constantinople has been hard to fork, and other public chains have slowly emerged. Ethereum’s innovation is weak, especially It is the ebb tide of ico that stirs up eth, and the price of eth is broken and fractured. Although the market heat has recovered some in the first half of this year, the investors of eth are suffering because the price of eth has not risen much.

As of July 15th, the price of Ethereum was 220 knives. It only fell 20% of the market value last weekend. Today it has plummeted and the exchange rate against Bitcoin has fallen again. There is data showing that the trading volume of the Ethereum chain has decreased, and the number of active addresses has kept decreasing. The correlation between Ethereum and BTC dropped to the lowest level in the past year, which was about 0.65.

We have a view this year that last year because eth lost a lot of money, this year will not make a lot of money because of eth, it is a fact. What we are going to say is that perhaps V God has completed the mission of the blockchain, and it is time for us to lose the illusion of eth and then skyrocketing.

You will say, why is there such a conclusion?

Because the more you believe in one thing, it is easy to forget how difficult it was at first. How do you remember how high the Ethereum has risen, and you will easily forget what Ethereum relies on.

Even Li Xiaolai’s teacher missed Ethereum at the beginning. Why did Ethereum not get the support of Bitcoin’s richest man, Li Xiaolai’s teacher, how the key Ethereum broke Bit Gold and Wright Silver’s order of the encrypted digital currency world.

The great proletarian teacher, Lenin, once said that the most effective way to destroy the evil capitalism is to destroy its currency, the currency.

Undoubtedly, in the real world, hyperinflation is one of the most effective ways of destroying. Through the continuous progress of inflation, those in power can confiscate a large part of the wealth of the people in a cover-up, not easily detectable way. In this way, not only can be confiscated, but also can be arbitrarily confiscated, quietly confiscated.

Lenin said the truth and said the truth, in fact, it is not just to tell the truth but to break the secret. To overthrow the evil capitalism, I am afraid that I can't really find a better means than destroying his currency.

In 1914, when the First World War broke out, Lenin was forced to exile to the neutral country of Switzerland for his policy against the Russian Tsar Nicholas II, first in Bern and then in Zurich to continue his theoretical research. Not long ago, Einstein studied at the Zurich Patent Office how to defeat the Newtonian classical mechanics system that had been in existence for more than 200 years. Einstein published the theory of special relativity in 1905, subverting our Newton worldview, before the outbreak of the First World War. Einstein has moved to Germany. Germany experienced hyperinflation after World War I.

100 years later, in early 2014, EthSuisse developed the first Ethereum software, and then on July 22, 2014, Ethereum raised 31,531 bitcoins. V God opened the Ethereum network road. It is worth mentioning that EthSuisse is registered in Switzerland, right, that is the Switzerland where Einstein used to work, and the Swiss that Lenin used to be exiled.

V God, the real name Vitalic Butrin was born in 1994, and the same ancestor of Lenin. However, he immigrated to Canada with his parents when he was 6 years old. He started working for Bitcoin Weekly in 2011. At that time, he was only 17 years old and loved to play a game. He was a talented programmer.

As V God said, he is not a bitcoin believer. He dug a few bitcoins and used them to buy a T-shirt. Now the T-shirt that he has thrown away has been worth more than 100,000 pieces, just like a pizza of the American Empire programmer.

Some people say that instead of saying that V God saw the success of Bitcoin, it is better to say that he saw the limitations of Bitcoin.

Yes, like all young people, V God, the 94-year-old young man, sees the world as a nail. Everything and everything is not so reasonable, including bitcoin. Bitcoin is a point-to-point Cash system. Don't ignore the word system. The problem with the Ethereum smart contract platform created by V God is that this system has appeared above.

In addition to seeing the world as a nail, the ordinary game teenagers are addicted to the game, immersed in the virtual world's Daguai upgrade, and there is nothing to do with the real world. They can only watch higher and higher prices. God has a good life, if the game youth is a little lucky, the money to play the game, then by the way to buy a few bitcoins, now even if it can not achieve the freedom of wealth, it should not let people say that playing games is no use.

Unlike other game youths, V God not only sees the world as a nail, but V God has a hammer in his hand. This hammer is nothing else, as Lenin once said. The most effective way to destroy capitalism is to destroy his currency. It’s just that V God sees the traditional currency as bitcoin. Of course, V God is not completely destroyed. Bitcoin, but he wants to completely change the way Bitcoin's underlying technology blockchain is played, rather than just changing the parameters of Bitcoin or copying a few lines of Bitcoin code like Litecoin.

The Russian youth of V God probably got the true biography of Lenin and practiced Lenin’s theory alive.

After all, practice is the only criterion for testing truth.


At the Ethereum conference in June this year, V first introduced the design of 1024 shards used by Ethereum 2.0, and introduced the beacon chain mechanism responsible for managing formula algorithms and cross-sliced ​​transactions. He said that the beacon-related issues are the current research focus, which will fundamentally improve the performance and scalability of Ethereum. The goal of the beacon chain is to increase the performance of Ethereum from the current 10 TPS to more than 10,000 TPS, while increasing the information throughput speed and forming more blockchain applications.

For the problems that may arise in cross-sliced ​​asynchronous transactions, V also introduced a mechanism called “Yank” by taking “booking a train ticket and booking a hotel” as an example.

V God mentioned that there is a need to continuously improve the consensus mechanism and create a low-level protocol with different applications.

This will allow us to create different applications above the extended blockchain.

In the view of v God, Ethereum evolved to version 2.0 with more shards. This may be very useful for blockchain trading, increasing its scalability, so that the blockchain concept can be processed from 10 transactions per second, and possibly 10,000 transactions per second, which will increase information throughput. The speed can also be applied to more blockchains.

Ethereum's 2.0 is worth our expectation, but V God is far from ideal to completely change Bitcoin's blockchain gameplay, because Bitcoin is still the leader in digital currency, and Ethereum will pass the pass and will only be ranked second. It is like Lenin's red sickle axe flag has been inserted in half of the earth, but the Soviet Union can only be behind the United States.

The Ethereum network is a smart contract platform based on blockchain. It seems to be the Android system on the blockchain. It realizes that Turing is not implemented by Bitcoin and can be used by anyone, especially any currency that can be sent. This is An amazing invention.

The famous late Keynesian economics master Minsky once proposed: In theory, we can issue money for everyone. The key to the question is whether it can be accepted?

The general currency is considered to be a commodity, which is generated from the transaction. In fact, this is a beautiful mistake. The currency is actually a kind of debt, a kind of bookkeeping, a record of credit, a kind of circulation, and nothing more.

In fact, money is not a commodity, nor is it generated from a transaction, but is another parallel world that is itself independent of the commodity world, except that money can be used as a trading tool.

We are all buying and selling Ethereum, and everyone has heard that Ethereum is a platform for smart contracts. But do you pay attention to the process of V God thinking? Have you read a little bit of something written by V God? Have you seriously thought about what V God recommends? Note that I have not read it, but have read it carefully.

In fact, the currency we talked about is not generated from the transaction, the currency is a kind of debt is the theory that V God recommended. This theory is in a book. It is worth mentioning that this book has a Chinese version. It is worth mentioning that this book is now in China. But you can buy a copy in the omnipotent Taobao. This book is "debt". Of course, this book is not just about how much you owe me a few cents. I owe him a few cents. This book is not just about debt, but about debt. Relationship, Marx once said that society is the sum of relations. For money, the debt relationship is the essence of money. To put it bluntly, this book breaks the secret of the essence of money.

Why should we study Ethereum well? Because even if Ethereum is now ranked second in cryptocurrency and does not exceed Bitcoin, the revelation given us is no less than the revelation in the Bible for us to study the next digital currency world. The great Newton used to be from Revelation. Find the secret of Shi Chengjin inside, we can achieve wealth freedom from the ethic ups and downs.

Because the emergence of Ethereum broke Bit Gold, Wright Silver's entire blockchain world order became the second-ranked cryptocurrency. Ethereum brings huge imagination to the entire blockchain world and seems to bring infinite possibilities.

Want to figure out the future evolution of the blockchain, we have to start from Ethereum, isn't BM still known as the EOS Ethereum Android version?

Ethereum started crowdfunding on July 23, 2014, when 1co was still an IPO. The 42-day IPO is divided into three phases of 14 days. The sooner you participate, the more ether coins you get. In the first 14 days, 1BTC will be exchanged for 2000 ether, and then the redemption ratio will be linearly reduced to the final 1:1337. When Ethereum is the most valuable, 1BTC will be replaced by less than 10 eth.

In the 42-day crowdfunding, Ethereum raised more than 30,000 BTCs, which were worth more than $18 million.

At the time, the amount of 18 million US dollars was refreshed by many people. In the discussion forum of the Ethereum crowdfunding in the bitcointalk forum, it is full of scams.

Although the EOS raised by E Lae's platform in 2017 was more than $4 billion, it was much less than eth, but in any case, Ethereum was still the largest and most unreliable in history. The largest number of crowdfunding projects. The cost of 1ETH originally converted to RMB is 2 yuan.

On July 30, 2015, one day three years ago, the first version of the Ethereum network was launched by Frontier. Developers began writing smart contracts and decentralized applications for deployment on the Ethereum real-time network. In addition, miners began to join the Ethereum network to help secure the Ethereum blockchain and earn Ethereum from mining blocks.

In the creation block, there are specific allocation information of 72 million ETHs issued by Crowdfunding (60 million for public fundraising and 12 million for other forms), of which 10,000 coins are waiting for 100,000 coins. It is not uncommon to measure the value of ETH's current plunge, and each achieves freedom of wealth.

In just three years, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency has revolutionized the face of the world of encrypted digital currencies, and every step it takes will engrave milestones in the history of cryptocurrency. Today, Ethereum founder V God has become a global icon in the technology industry and one of the most respected leaders in the blockchain industry. The Ethereum ecosystem has released more than 700 tokens and 1,100 DAPPs. Regardless of the future of Ethereum, it will go down in history as a revolutionary pioneer.

Although the development process of Ethereum is not smooth, it is fortunate to lose the cryptocurrency of Bitcoin compared to other threats.

In 2017, not only the lucky year of Ethereum, but also the brilliant year of Ethereum, this year 1CO is popular. In early 2017, Ethereum built a set of 1CO distribution mechanism using smart contract and ERC-20 agreement. Users can issue their own currency within 2 hours. The ease of use and complete functions of the smart contract on Ethereum are also Let everyone know that it is so easy to issue their own digital currency, and it is almost necessary to realize the theory that Minsky predicts that each of us can issue money. This also subverts people's perception of digital currency. Others say that 1CO will eventually replace the traditional securities market IPO. Some even say that blockchain projects based on digital currency incentives will subvert the traditional corporate organization.

The rise of 1CO has made Ethereum a sharp increase in both the number of users and its own value. In this year, the number of people using Ethereum and the trading volume of Ethereum have exploded, and the price of ETH has also risen. In 2017, Ethereum soared 100 times, far more than 20 times that of Bitcoin.

At the beginning of 2018, the land of China ushered in a sleepless night in the blockchain. The blockchain ushered in a climax. In early June, the Ethereum Technology Application Conference was held in Beijing. V God published Casper and sharding technology. V God said that with the new technology, it will reach 1 million transactions per second, and it is likely to reach 100 million times in the future. The number of participants was full, and people were proud of the V God.

However, in May 2014, at the same time, Bitcoin had just come down from a high point, but it has not completely turned the bear. For the first time, God came to China to participate in the Bitcoin Summit in Beijing. The chairman of this summit is Li Xiaolai. At that time, V God said that he only saw miners and exchanges in China. It was nothing interesting.

In the blink of an eye, in October 2015, when Vitalik came back to China, Bitcoin was a complete bear market. The theme of the summit has changed from Bitcoin to blockchain. For this reason, he specially learned Chinese and no longer at the meeting. need translation. However, there was no appearance of Li Xiaolai’s teacher at this summit. Teacher Li Xiaolai was prepared to work hard and was on the road to Luo Zhenyu's acquisition. Soon after, Li Xiaolai got a column on "The Road to Realizing Freedom of Freedom". Because in the eyes of Li Xiaolai’s teacher, the bear market is a good opportunity to accumulate popularity. Waiting for the harvest coming from the bull market, this is not our guess, but the 18-year recording event, Li Xiaolai’s own teacher told everyone.

At the 19-year Ethereum Conference, V God is still V God, V God is still on the issue of how to solve the block, such as how to achieve greater applications and so on. Teacher Li Xiaolai is still Teacher Li. Teacher Li gave a lecture after the Ethereum conference, and paid for it. However, there is nothing remarkable about the paid lecture. The main purpose of this lecture is to give the Chinese New Year coin to Mr. Cx Li.

In Li Xiaolai’s cognition, fame is everything. The goal of Li’s life is to let the leek buy all of Li’s family. We can almost say this, maybe Li Xiaolai’s teacher thinks that the eternal life and the lingering eternal years are two sides of a coin.


All business practices are cyclical, and the financial industry must not ignore the cycle. At the end of the bear market in 2018, the vast majority of projects did not return to zero or evaporated more than 90% of the market value. The encrypted digital currency has reached the edge of the collapse of bear market confidence. Bitcoin fell below the psychological defense of everyone, 6000 dollars, almost fell to 3,100 knives.

The last round of the plunge is the collapse of the coin circle consensus caused by BCH. "As long as you have enough money to control the computing power, the decentralized BTC can be subverted and replaced. This gives people the illusion that nothing is "The irreplaceable, uncontrollable", so that the entire encryption world will be overwhelmed, so the impact on the entire industry is terrible.

Mastering the power to make the industry lose the only BTC, that is, losing consensus. In this way, the whole industry may be a tulip bubble again, and BTC is a thorough air currency. You said that terrible is not terrible? The loss to the entire industry after the BCH fork is probably difficult to calculate.

However, the difference with the 13-year bear market is that Ethereum, which was built by V God, also contributed to the Ethereum. As early as bch caused the collapse of the consensus, the entire currency circle had a plunging of Ethereum.

Ethereum has not only reached a new low, no one knows where the Ethereum is at the bottom. Everyone does not know what happened. It only knows the fact that Ethereum is plunging. Ethereum fell and fell again and again, defeating the psychological bottom line of investors again and again, and stopped falling at 80 knives at the end of the year.

We know that the blockchain is a consensus economy, but there is not much consensus at the moment, and nothing else is that the price of the currency has fallen. Some consensus is no longer a consensus among many people. Many of my consensus seems to be an illusion instead of consensus.

Some people say that those who abandoned Ethereum at the beginning of last year, especially those who came to finance at the beginning of the year, will wake up dreaming. Those funds that have integrated ETH may not be closed before they start work.

Some people say that when bitcoin rises, eth is slow, and when bitcoin falls, eth's fall is like air. Why did Eitafang fall so much last year that it exceeded the imagination of everyone, and this year’s rebound is very weak? Because the price of Ethereum fell like the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, not the Nasdaq crash of 2000. It was not the same as the last drop in Bitcoin, which was a Nasdaq crash.

Why do you say this? We will be in January 18, when the market is not bad. At that time, the price of Ethereum broke through $1,000. The reason was that many startups built projects on the Ethereum blockchain and sold them in crowdfunding, that is, initial tokens, and sold digital tokens to Ethereum. Investors who bought Ethereum and participated in the initial token issue pushed up the price.

In the 17-year super bull market, the price of Ethereum soared. The projects issued based on the Ethereum public chain all use ETH as the settlement currency. With the rapid growth of the number of ICO projects, the price of Ethereum and ICO projects are mutually reinforcing and present a positive cycle. Demand for ETH is strong, and the cryptocurrency, which initially cost less than $10, has risen more than 100 times, and the price of Ethereum has reached a high of $1,506. It is precisely because of the birth of Ethereum that the global digital currency market value has increased from 18 billion US dollars at the beginning of 2017 to the peak of 560 billion US dollars. The market value of Ethereum accounts for 32% of the total cryptocurrency market, while the originator of Bitcoin accounted for 39% of the total market value of cryptocurrency. And to a certain extent, last year's big bull market is driven by Ethereum. Some even believe that Ethereum will eventually surpass Bitcoin as the most valuable cryptocurrency. However, the market value of Bitcoin has returned to 60% this year.

In the second half of last year, the number of ICO projects was also greatly reduced compared with the beginning of the year. The Token Funds also faced difficulties in raising funds and suspended foreign investment. In addition, the dapp landing was not as expected, which led to the continuous decline in demand for ETH. In the past, ICO raised a large amount of ETH due to the collective panic and stop loss of the bear market, and also transferred the ETH in the hands to the exchange to sell, resulting in more and more ETH supply in the market.

The continuous decline since the second half of last year has already predicted the trend of Ethereum. Many 1CO projects are not working, and even the most tender amaranth can be seen. Erc20 collective collapse, after which we should consider how to rebuild the system, rather than repairing this loophole mechanism.

The tide recedes and we can see who is swimming naked.

Therefore, we all understand that Ethereum is also 1CO, and it is also 1CO.

We also understand that in the world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is among the precious metals, and Ethereum is more like a bank. The banking system is inherently unstable, as is Ethereum.

The bitcoin of God's return, Ethereum's return to Ethereum.

Teacher Li Xiaolai wrote a book in the 18-year bear market, and published a book called "The Self-cultivation of Amaranth." Li Xiaolai continued to continue the practice of the bear market as always .

V God is still on the theoretical road of studying the blockchain, but this time it is not discussing how to study independently from Bitcoin's other monuments, but V God's own blockchain theory intelligent contract platform Ethereum itself.

V God once regarded the blockchain as a "world computer" in an interview with Dialogue Tyler. The idea is to use the blockchain as a whole, which functions like a computer. It has a hard drive on the hard drive that stores all the accounts. Any content that can be built on a computer can be built on the blockchain. From the perspective of computer science theory, the blockchain itself can be viewed as a computer in terms of what the blockchain provides.

Smart, did you find out? What Ethereum wants to do is to kill the Internet and replace the app in the Jobs Apple App Store with the world of Dapp. Ethereum itself replaces Microsoft's Windows system, Apple's iOS. And in this world, the blood is Ethereum, Ethereum itself is the coin issued by V God, this is like a bitcoin in a peer-to-peer cash system, Bitcoin itself is the fuel of this point-to-point payment system. It's not like the Apple App Store needs a RMB, a US knife, and so on to download a game, and it doesn't make a set of selling window systems like Microsoft to make money.

In the four or five years since the birth of Ethereum, Blockchain 2.0 quickly became mainstream, and tens of thousands of smart contracts and dapps were developed based on Ethereum. However, from the current situation of Ethereum, the performance of Ethereum has hardly improved in the past year. The expansion technologies such as Casper, Sharding and Plasma have been delayed and deployed. A large number of dapps cannot be scaled up. According to the data of DappRadar website, the total daily consumption of all dapps in Ethereum is less than 10,000, which is difficult to attract the public and even has a downward trend.

Although V God also said in June last year that the Ethereum network will eventually be able to process 1 million transactions per second and have the potential to trade more than 100 million transactions per second. However, there has been no major breakthrough in the fragmentation technology of Ethereum this year. This year's Ethereum Conference has nothing new.

And Ethereum's technical improvements, the most well-known is the fragmentation technology, which can greatly enhance the performance of Ethereum. However, the fragmentation technology is still far away. In the current more than 800 dapps in all statistical scopes, only 30 of the daily active population exceeds 50, and the active number of dapps is dominated by games, gambling, and exchanges. For the most part, these three types of dapps are very speculative, not practical and real value, and users are more involved in the interests.

Dapp's application range and landing effect are not up to expectations, and it is slowly consuming the confidence of investors. People did start building dapps and software, but the market has advanced. Investors are beginning to realize that this will be a long battle, so some people are losing patience.

We already know that it is also a crash to raise a cat in Ethereum, which shows that the dapp replacement app is still early.

As the famous American economist Roubini, as it seems that the global economy is still growing in 2006, it has predicted that a crisis is brewing, so the media was crowned the Doomsday doctorate. Roubini recently voiced the decline in the value of Ethereum, because as a "cryptocurrency and decentralized application platform", it lacks active decentralized application adpps.

Roubini once said that "the crash of Ethereum is not surprising. 75% of dapps are Ponzi schemes and gambling games that encrypt cats. The remaining 25% are decentralized exchanges (DEX) that no one uses. Because 99% of transactions are on decentralized exchanges, 99% of cryptocurrencies have lost 99% of their value.

Moreover, decentralized computing ecosystems and smart contractual agreements based on public chains such as Ethereum and EOS have been around for less than three years. EOS is a public chain built in 17 years, 18 years of main online line. It turns out that everyone expects a breakthrough, but the fact is that there is not much surprise in the main online line. The million tps claimed to deceive the leek, which is also the main eos online. There is no reason for the price after the line.

The core problem of Ethereum lies in the slow, inefficient and low quality of its core technology route. Ethereum needs to better combine the technologies of fragmentation, cross-chain and sidechain to break through the existing bottlenecks in Ethereum's transaction delay and transaction costs, which will determine the future of Ethereum. However, investors can not be so optimistic in the bear market environment if the working methods of the Ethereum community can complete technological improvement and transformation as quickly and as high as possible.

As an asset class and the Ethereum protocol as a decentralized computing network, cryptocurrency is still in its infancy. The Ethereum main network can only handle 10 to 12 transactions per second, so the types of services that dapps can provide are limited. The decentralized technology route such as the Ethereum network has evolved slowly like a snail. Some developers also said that this upgrade includes improving the arithmetic speed of the Ethereum virtual machine EVM, the storage method of the reassembled block hash on the Ethereum network, and compression. The contract interaction mode and the addition of the Ethereum state channel, the most important is the introduction of PoW and PoS hybrid chain mode, that is, Ethereum turned to the PoS buffer process.

Improvements to the protocol layer are being implemented at an exponential rate. Ethereum co-founder Vitalick Butrin has said that the implementation of the two-tier solution and the implementation of Plasma may increase the trading capacity of Ethereum to 1 million times per second, which will support the Internet of Things and finance. The internet.

However, some simple concepts of dapps, such as crypto cats, dominate the industry, and decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges cannot compete with centralized exchanges.


In fact, it may not be the problem of Ethereum itself, but it is too early for Ethereum.

Early birds had worms, but late mice could eat cheese.

In the same way, once the CEO of Nokia commented on his opponent Apple in the memoirs: "We didn't do anything wrong, but we don't know why we lost." We know that Nokia was the first to introduce a smart hand, not Apple.

In addition, Ethereum is a decentralized platform that runs various intelligent protocols and applications. They do not have the possibility of downtime, the possibility of being censored, and there is no possibility of third party intrusion and fraud. These applications run on a specially tailored blockchain, an extremely powerful global infrastructure that delivers value and can be represented in a proprietary manner.

All of this is convenient for programmers to develop various markets on the market, a variety of debt or commitment-based storage registry, according to a certain program to transfer wealth.

To put it bluntly, Ethereum has achieved success with this core concept value, rather than a large-scale practical application. This kind of concept is undoubtedly a great victory for decentralized applications, but for us, the actual application is still of concern to the general public, even in the eyes of some investors.

The core value of Ethereum, according to the explanation given on the website, is the development of an unstoppable application. But the truth is not.

At present, at least in the recent evolution of the currency circle, the competition in the public chain may be an endless war. At this stage, the blockchain is still in the stage of the accumulation of primitive capitalism. The chain is the foundation of the blockchain domain and the war has just begun. Ethereum may also be just Columbus, but we know that the last successful colony of the New World in North America is not South America in Columbus but British in North America. The United States in North America is not only the chief of the Americas, but also the police of the entire world.

The collapse of Ethereum's price has not rebounded much. Dapp is not mature. For Ethereum, these are actually facts that we know have happened. Many times, I understand earlier and understand what is not happening. The facts themselves are more important.

We know that Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in the first white paper on the blockchain that Bitcoin is a point-to-point cash system. Bitcoin is the earliest blockchain application, and there is no doubt that Bitcoin can only be an application. Bitcoin itself is the currency of this peer-to-peer system. We cannot issue other tokens on Bitcoin.

However, we know that Ethereum is OK, and many projects have issued their own tokens at Ethereum. In this way, Ethereum not only created its own blood, but Ethereum also facilitated the creation of blood for others. This is the token that we are familiar with in the Ethereum. Ethereum makes it possible for everyone to issue coins. This creates an illusion that the right to issue tokens is in Ethereum.

This is also the reason why we talked about the price drop of the Ethereum as the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, not the Nasdaq crash of 2000. The last time Bitcoin fell was more like a Nasdaq crash. In the world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is among the precious metals, and Ethereum is more like a bank. The banking system is inherently unstable, as is Ethereum.

However, although the currency rights are currently on the Ethereum side, but the currency circulation is on the exchange, the exchange has already seen the importance of the currency rights. This is why the currency is safe and the coins are making their own. . In this way, the future dapp will not work, and the right to issue the currency will be taken away by the head exchange. What is left in the Ethereum? I am afraid that the underpants are not there. This is the biggest problem facing Ethereum.

The future probability of the blockchain is that the model of the public chain plus the exchange may be the final product form. The exchange alone has no future, and the public chain alone is not at the moment. In the future, the public chain is the exchange, and the exchange is the public chain.

Now, whether it is a public chain or other project side, deploying smart contracts on Ethereum will cost Ether Square as gas. In the project's cornerstone, private placement and 1CO phase, ETH as the settlement currency is the blood of the entire Ethereum public chain. In the application process of the project, when the end user uses the product such as the blockchain game, the processing fee ETH is settled.

The future trend is that everyone is striving to bypass ETH and surpass the ERC20 model of issuing tokens. This trend is not to be overwhelmed by the life and death of Ethereum.

Based on the Ethereum ERC20 ICO project can actually go to ETH? The situation seems to be subtle. Although I haven’t heard it yet, everyone is already on the road. Since the beginning of this year, the coin of Ian has opened the first shot, and then the fire coins, OK have not fallen. In the first half of this year, ieo is undoubtedly the biggest hot spot in the market, and it is also a bright spot. Bnb rebounded 10 times from the bottom. From the perspective of bnb, it is not like a bear market.


Ethereum has actually opened up a new era of smart contracts, bringing prosperity to the global digital currency, a period known as Blockchain 2.0. In this way, the project based on Ethereum is to be separated from ETH. This seems to be a depressing phenomenon, and people have to worry about whether Ethereum can hold the throne of the blockchain 2.0 era. After Erc20, we are not creating the concept of blockchain 3.0, but rebuilding the blockchain 2.0.

In addition, the more serious problem is that the necessity and rationality of ETH in the Ethereum ecosystem has also been questioned. Bitcoin core developer Jeremy Rubin wrote on TechCrunch in early September that since there is no hard requirement in the Ethereum contract to pay for Gas with ETH, more and more dapp users may choose to pay Gas with their ERC20 token in the future. The demand for ETH is further weakened, and the ETH price may eventually return to zero.

Ethereum's own token ETH, the Ethereum network token, its value will be zero, but the Ethereum network itself will continue to exist and may survive independently.

As early as September 3 last year, well-known blockchain author Jeremy Rubin published an article in TechCrunch saying that the Ethereum ETH value may be zero, and suggested that miners should boycott ETH as the transaction fee of the Ethereum network. Investors should sell it. Zeroed ETH.

The author points out that the transaction fee Gas in the Ethereum network can be seen as a fuel for the engine. Fuel is often burned in an internal combustion engine, and an internal combustion engine, please note that it can't work without the help of combustibles. However, unlike fuel, Gas is in an Ethereum agreement. Although it is like fuel, it is not as essential as fuel. Without it, the whole system works as usual.

At the same time, Ethereum developers pointed out that the behavior of the original single token can be removed from the blockchain architecture. It no longer requires the use of a token to pay for the blockchain. The agreement allows anyone to use it. There are countless kinds of Tokens to pay.

This adjusted and modified agreement completely eliminated ETH. We can use this to encourage miners to continue mining without having to pay any fees in the form of ETH.

Although we already know that Ethereum is a smart contract, in the information given by the Ethereum official, we have not seen the core value orientation of ETH, and we usually ignore it. The reason for this neglect is that people seem to think that the value of ETH is too obvious, so that you don't know how to describe such a value. Everyone thinks that the ETH transaction fee itself is taken for granted as a fuel for the Ethereum network. Of course, the value is also natural.

Now, we can no longer use ETH to pay for Gas. We can sign an agreement to let other tokens be used as transaction fees, pay with Token instead of ETH. The most common is the exchange's token, such as Coin bnb, bnb is an ERC20 token, but it is completely in its own system as a fee, voting rights, etc., after our project side fundraising, it is also possible to raise bnb, but we must not forget the platform currency It’s not that the currency was launched successfully, but there have been other pathfinders.

So let's take a look at it. There is no ETH in the Ethereum network. One has a variety of tokens. Is the revised proof of equity similar? In fact, as long as each node sets a weighting factor for the electoral power of its token, we will tell the miners in the community.

Although the conclusion is quite exaggerated, this view has caused a lot of discussion and V God's response. V God acknowledged that the author's part of the argument is reasonable, but the Ethereum community is considering two proposals, both of which will address the need to use ETH payments in the protocol layer, and the block initiator can use any ERC-20 generation. Currency charge,

Some people suspect that there is no Ethernet operation in the Ethereum network. It is a short-selling behavior. For this public shorting of ETH, the founder of Ethereum V God has launched a counterattack in Reddit, saying that the author knows about Ethereum technology. Rarely, and lack of basic economic theory, 2/3 of the transaction fees of Ethereum will be destroyed in the future. The hypothetical plan mentioned by the original author has formed a proposal in the Ethereum community. The choice of ETH for fee payment is community. Consensus and so on.

In addition, the Ethereum network, the mechanism for issuing Tokens, has no credit endorsement, and the assets issued are not empowered. Without the empowerment of the asset layer, the liquidity of your Token is flashy, it can't flow, it doesn't have much value, but we don't know it yet.

Because many times we don't know that we don't know.

Because the environment may change, and because of inertia thinking, we are almost unaware of the climate around us.

And the world is a dynamic world, and the world of blockchains is even more so. Former British Prime Minister Churchill once asked the savior of the Great Depression, Sir Keynes, that your economists’ views have always changed.

Keynes replied that the environment changed, and of course the point of view changed. If Keynes and an economist discuss the problem together, there are three final answers, because Keynes himself has two.

In 17 years, everyone said that they are bitcoin, starting 100 times and 10,000 times not dreaming.

In the second half of last year, I said that I am a USDT, and I will never return to zero. BM even said that hibernation is a good way to spend the winter in the telegraph group. It is said that BM will issue a new coin, and then bm rumors, and this year, bm has sent another one. The new currency, the leek is really speechless.

Many people who take the eth at the high position want to solve the problem this year. It may be a matter of time for them to solve the problem.

However, many times, the development of things is not just a matter of time. If it is a matter of time, things are simple. We always judge the future based on the past, but people who judge the future based on the past are often wrong.

For example, Yahoo's share price has not returned to the price of the bubble in 2000 until now. Many people say that the blockchain is different, but the difference is bitcoin.

We need to emphasize that Ethereum is not bitcoin. Ethereum is completing the decoupling of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the first invention of the blockchain. Bitcoin itself is a blockchain-based application. It is the first time in human history that secret learning has given everyone the opportunity to master their wealth. It is a digital gold with storage value.

Everyone seems to think that Ethereum is as special as Bitcoin, but it is not. We emphasize that Bitcoin is the first time in human history that cryptography has allowed everyone to truly control their wealth. Ethereum is not bitcoin or bitcoin.

V God does not recognize this view, saying that this view lacks some vital economic and technical details, but we know that to see the general trend, sometimes we need to delete some mediocre details, in order to see the essence of the problem.

This is the best era, this is the worst era.

The bad thing is that you think that Ethereum will be related to the next bull market. Ethereum is likely to miss the next round of bull market. Just because you believe in the same thing, it is easy to forget how difficult it was at first.

The good news is that the hundred times of the next bull market is just around the corner, but everyone is still in the illusion of Ethereum. It is gratifying that this illusion is dying and the new consensus is about to sprout soon.

In addition, investment is a probabilistic event, and from a statistical point of view, success is often accidental. Nakamoto has invented bitcoin, and V God invented Ethereum as a lucky accident.

The price level of all value items is determined by only the potential demand, the imaginary future, the consensus in consciousness, and more accurately, the real price is determined by its potential demand, not just The needs of the Wanfuhao game.

Previously, Roubini had publicly commented on Bitcoin and blockchain technology, saying that the blockchain might be the most exaggerated technology ever. He believes that for financial institutions, especially financial institutions engaged in algorithmic trading, fast and efficient transaction processing is required. For their purposes, a globally distributed blockchain like Ethereum will never be useful.

Although Roubini's point of view has always been pessimistic, he is indeed the world's first well-known scholar who has serious doubts about the blockchain. But at this point we should maintain the opposite view of Roubini, we should remain optimistic.

We believe that the future of the blockchain is tortuous, but the future is bright, and the blockchain road is still worth our expectation. But having an expectation does not mean making money.

As a retail investor, we must recognize the law. However, the money that can make money is the market that rises and falls. In the volatile market, the retail investors are in the cattle but also the banker, but the banker is no better than the general trend, the big market, the retail What I have to do is to clarify the big market and be on the same stage as the big market.

We must admit that knowing the law of the development of things is more important than the things themselves, because things will change, but the law will live for a long time.

We must admit that not everyone can recognize the truth.

Most of the world we see most of the time can only be a special solution for me to understand the world, and sometimes even special solutions are not.

Eth does not chase the ups but the plunge can be counted as a special solution to throw away eth again skyrocketing fantasies.

We will continue to update Blocking; if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact us!


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