QKL123 market analysis | The market is falling, when will it be closed? (0715)

Abstract: At present, BTC has a short-term rebound demand, but there is still a downward trend, and it is necessary to wait patiently for the market reversal signal. From the historical comprehensive performance of BTC, its long-term uptrend has not changed; the short-term BTC and ETH downside space is gradually decreasing, and it is possible to continue to test the support level until the staged bottom is found.


According to QKL123 statistics, on July 15, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,985.484 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased -13.57%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 554.452 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed + 24.54%, market activity has increased. The market value of BTC accounts for 65.53%, and the market value of ETH accounts for 8.55%. The market risk aversion is still high.

At 11 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV fell the most in 24 hours (-27.19%), followed by BCH (-19.80%); BTC 24 hours rose or decreased -12.16%, ETH 24 hours up and down The amplitude is -19.43%. USDT's 24-hour up/down +0.13%, 24-hour turnover rate of 4.87%, market share (1.45%) compared with yesterday's increase, off-exchange capital inflows increased compared with yesterday.


At 11 o'clock today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 14, 339. 51 points, 24 hours up and down -13.53%; alternative.me sentiment index was 61, unchanged from yesterday (61), the market performance was greedy. Today, Bitcoin's Google search trend has increased slightly from yesterday, higher than the same period last month.

Analyst's point of view: The market continues to bottom out, risk aversion continues to rise, and the short-term downside space is gradually narrowing, waiting patiently for market reversal signals.

First, the spot BTC market

3 24H highest: ¥71697.82 24H minimum: ¥69411.96

Judging from the BTC 4-hour K-line, after the oversold rebound yesterday, the air force has been depleted at $10,000, and the short-term downtrend has eased, but the Air Force’s re-raid can not be ruled out. In the short-term, the bottom of the market stage is still uncertain, and it is necessary to see whether the direction of energy can reverse, and the downside space still exists.

Fund face


As of 14:00, the net outflow of BTC funds today was 2.044 billion yuan, a decrease from yesterday. Among them, the net outflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 73.87 million yuan, the net outflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 705.9 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 599.3 million yuan. The market is still continuing to ship, and the shipments are slightly lower than yesterday.


Yesterday, the number of BTC coins destroyed was 4,431,100 (historically small), a slight increase from the previous day (369.18 million). The off-site address was relatively frequent at the end of June, which indicates that the short-term market has a large selling pressure, but there is no over-the-counter giant whale concentrated selling action, and the long-term uptrend has not been destroyed.

2. Fundamentals

6 Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 289 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 64.80EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (68.40EH/s), still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 592,100, which was a significant drop from the previous day (651.19 million), lower than the average of the past six months. BTC's valuation relative index MVRV dropped to around 2.0. The market supply and demand imbalance has been further eased due to the price decline, but the short-term downside space has gradually narrowed.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): Long-term rallies can be lighten up or bargain-hunting. At present, it is in the short-term partial adjustment stage, and the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years.

Mid-line (January-March): Short-term shocks adjust the situation unchanged, and the downside risks and downsides have decreased. It is recommended to reduce the positions on rallies or increase the positions on dips.

Short-term (1-3 days): The market is looking for effective support, and the risk of short-term operation is high. Resistance is $11,000, support is $10,000, target is $10,500, stop loss is $10,000, and take profit is $11,000.


Second, the spot ETH market

8 24H highest: ¥1696.98 24H minimum: ¥1471.07

Today, ETH has seen a strong rebound after dropping to US$200. It has fallen below the support level of US$230. There is still a high downside risk in the short term. It is likely to continue to test the support of US$180 and even further test the US$160. Strong support.

Fund face


As of 14:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 456.51 million yuan. Among them, the net outflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 35.4 million yuan, the net outflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 122.62 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 294.49 million yuan. The market continues to ship, with retail investors reducing their positions.


The ETH/BTC transaction pair continues to drop to 0.0205 BTC, and the amount can be released, but there is still a tendency to further find effective support. The relative strength of ETH needs to wait for the BTC to successfully bottom out.

2. Fundamentals


Currently, the top ten ETH DApp activity levels have increased slightly compared to yesterday. Among them, the number of active users of the trading platform IDEX (1,028) increased by +0.78% compared with yesterday, and the total flow of pledges by DAI (15,853 ETH) increased by 0.92% compared with yesterday. In addition, the number of active addresses on the chain of ETH was 592,100, which was lower than yesterday (651.19 million), which was significantly lower than the same period last month.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The smart contract platform ETH 2.0 project is in the process of advancement, and it is expected to step out of the independent market in the future, and can reduce the position or shorten the position.

Midline (January-March): The market volatility adjusts the situation unchanged, and can be used to reduce positions or bargain-hunting.

Short-term (1-3 days): It is not advisable to chase the high, but the short position can be short. Resistance is $230, support is $180, target is $205, stop loss is $180, and take profit is $230.

12 Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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