SEC Appeals or Naps? Imagining the Ripple Effect if they Skip the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF Appeal

Potential Implications of an Unappealed Grayscale Bitcoin ETF Ruling by the SEC

US SEC Faces Deadline to Appeal Grayscale’s Bitcoin Fund

Hey there, digital asset investors! Hold onto your hats because we’ve got some news that might make your coins jingle with joy. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is running out of time to appeal a court decision regarding Grayscale Investments. Yep, it’s deadline day for the SEC, and they have to decide what to do about Grayscale’s application for a spot Bitcoin fund. Can you feel the tension in the air?

Now, most folks don’t think the SEC will bother appealing the court’s decision. But hold your horses, because analysts say there’s still a chance for the SEC to delay approval of Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). On October 13th, the SEC must either appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, ask the Appeals Court to reconsider, or, drumroll please, follow the court’s August order and give Grayscale’s bid the old review-a-roo.

In an Oct. 12th tweet, the ever-wise Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balcunas said an appeal was unlikely, but he did hint at the possibility of “something else happening.” Ooh, mysterious! Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s other ETF analyst James Seyffart chimed in, saying that it would be difficult for the SEC to deny the application on new grounds. However, he didn’t rule out the agency finding ways to keep delaying.

But wait, there’s more! A law firm called Ropes & Gray released a September note, warning that the Grayscale application might be sent back for review. Gasp! Another chance for the SEC to reject it on a different basis altogether. Oh, the suspense!

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According to the legal eagles at Ropes & Gray, if the New York Stock Exchange has to make a new filing to list Grayscale’s fund, it could take the SEC a whopping eight months to reach a decision on the ETF. Eight months! That’s longer than waiting in line for a roller coaster on a sunny day.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. What about the other spot Bitcoin ETF applications? Well, hold your crypto horses again, because there are at least seven other applications waiting on the SEC’s desk. But guess what? They’ve all faced delays and pushbacks from the SEC. Ah, the joys of bureaucracy. This means the final approval deadlines for most of the applications are around March 2024 or even later. Time flies when you’re waiting for the SEC to make a move.

But here’s the real kicker. All eyes are on Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF conversion application because, if it gets approved, the SEC might find it tough to knock back other applications. You know how it goes, once the floodgates open, it’s like trying to stop popcorn from popping. It’s just a matter of time.

In fact, Bloomberg analysts have updated the odds of an approved spot Bitcoin ETF, and they are feeling quite bullish. They’re giving it a 75% likelihood of approval this year, and by the end of 2024, they’re betting on a whopping 95% chance of approval. Those are pretty good odds, my friends.

So, buckle up and keep those eyes peeled for any updates on Grayscale’s application. It’s an exciting time to be in the digital asset game, and we’re just getting started.

What do you think about the SEC’s deadline and the potential approval of Grayscale’s Bitcoin fund? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and may the crypto force be with you!

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