April 14th market analysis: long and short sides will soon fight again, the war will be launched

Prior to the news on April 8, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue", which classified virtual currency "mining" activities into eliminated industries. In the interview, Bit Zuo founder Yang Zuoxing said that virtual currency is an emerging sunrise industry, and he personally believes that it should be allowed to develop within a certain range. Mining is the most important entity guarantee for virtual currency, and he personally believes that it should also exist within a certain range. If the draft is approved, mining will go overseas, and China will lose an important industrial opportunity. I think this kind of interpretation is not correct. Mining is a high-energy-consuming industrial chain, which runs counter to the country's development strategy. It eliminates the high-energy and low-output industrial chain, which is conducive to the industrial population to higher-end industries. Cluster transfer, so the impact of the policy on the overall cryptocurrency should not be interpreted.

As of 8:00 today, in the OKEx Bitcoin contract elite account, the long-term average position ratio was 16.41%, the short-selling average position ratio was 17.68%, and the short position again exceeded the long position. In the Ethereum contract elite account, the long-term average position ratio was 26.74%, and the short-selling average position ratio was 13.97%. The long position continued to dominate. We can see from the data that the main futures contract of Bitcoin is slightly higher than the long position, but the magnitude is not too large, indicating that even if it is suppressed, the short position seems to be not obvious. In contrast, the main advantage of ETH's main futures contract is obvious. This shows that the main force of the top two cryptocurrencies in the market value has serious differences on the outlook of the market. As for who can get the final victory, it is necessary to closely monitor the changes in the position of the late Bitcoin in order to judge the trend of the market.

In a recent comprehensive report, Binance Research explained that a large number of retail investors that currently dominate the market may be a factor that is highly correlated with various digital assets, and the organization may only account for 7% of the entire market. According to data collected by cryptofundresearch.com, there are now about 700 crypto funds operating with total assets of less than $10 billion. It is conservative to assume that they all hold bitcoin, which accounts for only 14% of the total market value of bitcoins. If Altcoins is included in the hypothesis The “institutional ratio” of the encryption market may be less than 7% overall. The accuracy of the data is not known, but the market dominated by retail investors is mainly an emotional market. It is easy to form a herd effect. The rise will help, and when it falls, it will help. When participating in the market, it is still necessary to find funds. The target, combined with the message surface, is easy to ferment and form a strong money-making effect.

BTC

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BTC has rebounded for two days. It can be seen from the daily level that the two-day rebound has not stood on the third of the previous Yinxian, and it has not rebounded 5 antennas and 10 antennas. The amount has not been effectively amplified, and the bargain-hunting mood is low. In addition, the aforementioned main futures contract shorts are slightly higher than the long position, and there is a certain expectation of suppression. It can be seen from the 15-minute K-line chart that the BTC entered the market when it hit $4871, but at present, there is no further support meeting for this live-moving chassis, but it is only doubtful that the soldiers are alone. Combat, squatting near the pressure position of $5050, there is no follow-up copying of the chassis, and there is no one to pick up. It is very embarrassing. If the main force still wants to go up, it should be pulled quickly. Form a small level of head and shoulders, try to test the pressure of the uptrend line, if you continue to cross, there will be people with a bad attitude to come out and wait, and 5 antennas and 10 days will form a dead fork down to the bulls. The macd indicator may also diverge down with the dead fork. If it forms a downward resonance, it will definitely test the support of $4,800. This point can be partially low-sucking. An effective break below $4,800 means the market is over.

Source of data: qkl123

ETH

ETH's main futures contract longs are significantly higher than the shorts, but we see that the spot market has received crosshairs for two consecutive days. It is a change and a down relay. It is still not very good judgment. At present, the target is subject to $166. The pressure may temporarily follow the trend of the BTC. The current position is not suitable for entering the market. Maintaining the previous point of view, it is expected to return to the support near 143 US dollars, or as long as the BTC does not break the position, the target is also large. The probability will not fall, and the medium-term target is still around $230.

Source of data: qkl123

XRP

XRP's macd indicator has already begun to diverge downwards, and the recent trend has been very weak. From the point of view of volume, there is no heavy volume in the downturn, which means that most of the participants have not left the market yet. To replenish the lost position, the individual thinks that the target is impossible to miss a round of market in vain. It is very likely that there will be a wave of compensatory growth. If the target breaks through the $0.3 chip-intensive exchange area, we will admit the departure.

Source of data: qkl123

BCH

BCH is still above the pressure point of 270 US dollars. From the time-sharing chart, it can be seen that the trading volume is extremely shrinking. At present, it is facing the pressure of high-point connection. It is difficult to break through the volume. Therefore, it is not recommended to intervene at this time, and may further Back down to 227 US dollars, I think this point has a strong support, can be low-sucking here, the medium-term target still sees 430 US dollars, but break this point, the market is over, leaving the market to wait and see.

Source of data: qkl123

EOS

EOS support is supported at $5, but it does not form an effective rebound. Now with 5 antennas and 10 antennas, the macd indicator is also accompanied by a dead fork, which may cause resonance down. The $5 support may not be effective. Yes, to maintain yesterday's point of view, the original high-selling position should not be replenished around 5 dollars, the rebound volume may not be able to kill again to 4.4 US dollars, once again, the point can be low, effectively fall below the market, wait and see .

Source of data: qkl123

LTC

LT failed to trigger an effective rebound at the $75 support. Currently, the 5 antennas are moving down quickly. We judge that the two crosshairs may be a falling relay pattern, and it is likely to further kill to the important support level of $62. At this point, you can enter the market. If you break below this point, the current round of the market will end and you will wait and see.

Source of data: qkl123

TRX

TRX continuously received the cross star line, has not yet reached the margin area, wait patiently, the macd indicator has been dead down, observe the support strength at 0.024 US dollars, can be low-intake at 0.02-0.024 US dollars, or break through again Starting at $0.028, it effectively fell below $0.02.

Source of data: qkl123

HT

HT yesterday successfully stood on the neckline position of M head, but we saw that the volume of this Yangxian line has not yet hit the big Yinxian line, and the volume is a gradual shrinking state. It is not a very good phenomenon. We expect the rebound to be unsustainable. Sooner or later, it is the long shadow line that needs to be compensated by the physical K-line. It is recommended that everyone pay attention to the risks. Earlier we mentioned that the top is inexhaustible and the non-rape is stolen. May kill the big Yinxian, how to pull out the big Yangxian line the day before yesterday, I will give you back today, pay attention to the risk.

Source of data: qkl123

The author's point of view is only used for learning communication, not as an investment recommendation, and does not constitute an investment basis!

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