Data Direction 丨 BTC price trend from the fundamentals, market, sentiment and technology

Fundamentals- supply side

Bitcoin hashrate

Source: Coinmetrics

After a slight decline in the fourth quarter of 2019, the average daily computing power and mining difficulty of the entire network continued to climb since 2020, maintaining a high level.

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Fundamentals-Demand Side

Number of active addresses, number of transactions on the chain

Source: Coinmetrics

The number of active addresses on the Bitcoin chain is maintained at 700,000, and the average daily transaction volume on the chain is 800,000 BTC, which is second to the bull market in the second half of 2017 and slightly weaker than the mid-2019 rebound period. It reflects that the daily active users on the chain are still far from historical highs, and the market has not yet reached a hot state.

Market side

Ups and downs

Total market value of the crypto market

Source: Tradingview

The total market value of the crypto market is US $ 239.8 billion, which has been increasing since 2019. The current total market value has pulled back slightly. From the perspective of trend development, the downward space is limited.

Bitcoin has achieved market value

Source: Coinmetrics

Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $ 106.1 billion. So far, this trend of true and effective market value in history has not fallen, and the total cost paid by all real currency holders for their own BTC has been increasing.

structure

BTC Proportion

Source: CoinMarketCap

The market share of Bitcoin has bottomed out in early 2018, and has continued to rise in the last two years. In the second half of 2019, Bitcoin's market value accounted for more than 70% at one time, and now it has fallen slightly to 62%, but the overall trend in the medium and long term is still rising.

Emotional face

FGI Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative

The Fear & Greed Index peaked in February with a reading of 65; it has now fallen to 38. This indicator shows that market sentiment has moved out of the greedy stage, but has not yet reached the panic zone.

Bitcoin Google Global Search Trends

Source: https://trends.google.com

Regarding the keyword Bitcoin, Google ’s global search trend has continued to increase slightly since 2019, but the increase is not significant, indicating that the price rebound since last year does not have a broad mass base. As prices approached mid-2019 highs, search enthusiasm did not rise simultaneously, or it can be speculated that the dominant power of institutional funds on the market is increasing.

Technical side

price

Source: AiCoin

From the perspective of price trends, Bitcoin's next effective support level may be at the 8100 USD front line, which corresponds to the October 2019 transaction-intensive area; the second support level is at 7300USD, corresponding to the shock range at the end of 2019.

Looking back at the market since 2019, the price of bitcoin is in a large cycle of rebound. This price decline can be completely defined as a mid-term correction, and it may be difficult to penetrate the 8100 USD support line.

trend

From the average price point of view, MA10, MA20, MA30 have all shown short signals, and the price has fallen below MA60, indicating that the market is beginning a short-term correction in the short term. There is currently no sign of stopping and it may fall further.

strength

Bitcoin 60-day cumulative gain

Source: Coinmarketcap, New Bloc

The 60-day cumulative increase in Bitcoin can measure the strength of the price of the currency. As of the end of February, the indicator reads 25%, which is in the 47% percentile in history. From the perspective of the indicator trend, the market rose rapidly in the short term in February and is currently facing a correction.

Mayer multiples

Source: Coinmarketcap, New Bloc

The Mayer multiple reading of 97% shows that the currency price is still below the 200-day moving average, and the short-term currency price has not deviated from the long-term trend. The price trend is very healthy, with the possibility of a callback but limited space.

cycle

MVRV Z-Score

Source: Coinmetrics, New Bloc

The MVRV Z-Score indicator can indicate the long-term price cycle of Bitcoin, especially the top and bottom signals given are very interesting. In the long run, this indicator is in the rising cycle; in the medium term, it is in a rising relay state; in the short term, it is being adjusted. The current reading is roughly at the 50th percentile, right in the middle of the top and bottom intervals.

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