Jiang Zhuoer: The cryptocurrency downtrend is likely to have ended

1. Why is there a down / up trend?

The main reason for the trend is the group emotions of people. People have a herd effect. A group of people who communicate with each other, their emotions (greedy or fear), will be infected by each other and amplified. Together they will form a huge snowball with great potential. roll.

And in down / up, overbought / oversold often occur. For example, during the bear market sideways phase in 2015, the currency price fluctuated around the central axis of 1500 yuan for a period of up to one year, but during the last fall in January 2015, due to group panic, the lowest price of the currency bottomed to 900 Yuan, far lower than the reasonable price of 1,500 yuan in a bear market.

Trends and message effects

In the downward trend, due to the huge potential energy of the snowball going forward, the negative effect is enhanced and the positive effect is weakened . Unless it is against the sky, it will not be able to defeat the downward trend. On the contrary, it is bearish. Regardless of the source, even a simple screenshot will cause a wave of decline .

However, the cathode is positive and the anode is negative. Any trend will deplete potential energy. When can you think the trend is over (or even reversed)? Whenever the news is counterproductive, it means that the trend is overdone .

On November 27th, the stolen 342,000 ETH (valued at nearly 50 million US dollars) of the upbit exchange is a typical example.

First of all, it was a sudden really bad news . No exchange will deliberately make such fake news, and each theft means that a large number of users ( due to fear of the exchange losing money) leave forever , so unless they can't hide it, the exchange will find a way to take it down after it is stolen.

Then, after the real negative, the currency price fell by 200 US dollars, but abnormally soared 500 US dollars, this is a typical example, the news counter-productive .

A bearish message counteracted the downtrend and gave a clear signal that the trend may be overdone and in an oversold position .

Third, observe the changes in mood from changes in mood

I recently conducted three consecutive market sentiment surveys, all after the V-shaped reversal:

K line is a 30 minute line

Convert into proportion

It can be seen that more and more people (from the air force and eating melons) are transforming into multi-military forces (in microcosm, the trend is transforming), but they have only reached 31% (therefore they have not risen). The rising performance confirms each other, indicating that the downtrend is likely to have ended.

Fourth, emphasize again

1. Any short-term forecast is only 50% correct . The longer the correct rate is, the higher the daily level will be, and the annual level will be to 90%. For example, the bull market will be halved next year.

2. In the digital currency market with great volatility, you must not play leveraged futures on the market, nor do you play leveraged futures based on the predictions of others . Even if you do it right 1,000 times, as long as you do it wrong once, it will eventually return to zero. The positive / negative premium / pin of the futures further magnifies the probability of making a mistake, as long as the lowest point pin is touched, you are finished.

3. Why emphasize the spot? Because in the market, it is impossible not to make mistakes. It is just a good idea to make a mistake in the spot . If you want to increase leverage, off-market (borrowing) leverage is also much safer than on-market leverage. The reason we buy Bitcoin is that the long-term bearish inflation of fiat currency is consistent with the logic of buying scarce assets such as housing. The fiat currency / central bank system has now encountered serious problems, so that the strange control measures of negative interest rates have appeared.

4. The halving of the bull market is not only because of the halving, but because the Bitcoin cycle has reached the bull market stage , and the two form a resonance.

Take the spot, withdraw money to your wallet, and prepare for the halving of the bull market 🙂

Editor's note: This article only represents the author's personal opinion and does not represent Babbitt's investment advice.

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