QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin adjustment is nearing the end, or will start the slow cattle market (1104)

Abstract: At present, the long-term adjustment of Bitcoin's probability will be staged, or the slow-moving market will start. In a short period of time, the market will continue to adjust sideways, and the possibility of short-term change is increasing.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 4, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,764.386 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -1.16%, the total turnover was 498.66 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -1.22%. Market activity has declined slightly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12,607.58 points, up 24 hours to -1.42%, reflecting the market's decline; the Bitcoin strength index was 97.95 points, 24 hours up +0.09%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market was slightly Stronger; the Alternative sentiment index was 56, which was the same as yesterday (56), and the market sentiment was slightly greedy.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-6.28%), and BNB had the largest increase in 24 hours (+0.34%). The USDT has risen and fallen to +0.30% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 10,143,700 yuan, which is lower than yesterday. USDC has risen and fallen to -0.09% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 375,200 yuan, which is significantly lower than yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index was reported at 100.39, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.39%.

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In the past day, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 73) increased slightly from the previous value (peak 70), higher than the one-month average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (45), Austria (45), Germany (44), Cyprus (42), Switzerland (41) and South Africa (41). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 86) increased from the previous value (peak 68), higher than the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

Since the beginning of April this year, the bitcoin volume has exceeded 200 days, and the market has opened a new round of bull market (the first round of bulls and bears from 2015 to 2019). Since then, prices have soared from April to June, rising from around $4,000 to around $13,000, more than three times in three months, but there has been no phased adjustment.

The extremes must be reversed. At the end of June, Bitcoin saw a significant correction of the drop in volume, and fell below 8,000 US dollars at the end of October, showing a decline of nearly 50% in more than three months. The market's adjustment depth exceeded the expectations of most people, and came to the 200-day moving average, the market faced a new round of bulls and bears. After a short-term break below the 200-day moving average, from October 25 to 27, Bitcoin significantly increased its volume by nearly 40% at around $7,300, and regained its 200-day moving average, and there is no heavy volume down yet. Standing on the side of the bull market.

Judging from the comprehensive performance of history, the staged adjustment of Bitcoin will end with a high probability, or it will start a slow bull market (relatively slow shocks), and will usher in a mad cow market in the next few years (fast and sharp rise).

First, the spot BTC market

On the daily line, the BTC continues to shrink and the amplitude is further shrinking, and the possibility of a change is further increased. Since the fall of the end of October, there has not been a significant drop in volume, and it has been more short-term.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 113,363,500 yuan. Among them, the over-single (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow was 2,691.23 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow was 27,073,200 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 582.061 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 25,392.40 million. The market has a large net outflow of medium-sized funds.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 86.22 EH/s, which was slightly lower than the previous day, near the 90-day moving average; the number of active addresses on the chain was 615,600, a slight decrease from the previous day, close to a one-month low; The trading volume was 814,800, a slight decrease from the previous day, which was close to a one-month low; the number of currency days destroyed was 3.981 million (historically small), which was slightly lower than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, ETH fluctuated slightly around $180, and the ETH/BTC trading pair continued to be low in the year, with short-term linkage.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 2,995,400 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net was 8.903 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) was 3,291,500 yuan, and the net was between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 41.746 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 11357.20 million. There are big differences in the market, mainly based on the net outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.7k, 24 hours change -9.45%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1k, 24 hours change +0.69%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24 hours active users 1k, 24 hours change +0.20%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Recently, the LTC contraction has fluctuated. At present, around the US$58, the short-term performance is slightly stronger.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 12,605,180 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 13.64 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 1243.11 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 569.81 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 13,054,800 yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 180.54TH/s, a slight decrease from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (47,600) dropped from the previous day, approaching a one-month low; the number of coins destroyed in the day was 8,847,400 (historically smaller), down from the previous day, close to a one-month low.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Recently, EOS has been shrinking in a downward trend, and its short-term performance is relatively weak, and the possibility of a change is greater.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 3,388.3 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 180,800 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 45.06 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 22.492 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 34.288 million yuan. There are big differences in the market, with a large net inflow.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined, and the impact of recent EOS network resource congestion is more obvious. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2.2k, which is +3.66% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 1.2k, which is -6.58% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users using Newdex is 1.1k. Yesterday changed -1.92%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, the bitcoin has a high probability of ending the phase adjustment, and the position is not heavy and the bargain is added.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Back support can be used in small positions, low suction and high throw, broken position and stop loss.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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