QKL123 market analysis 丨 Bitcoin ETF road is long, but still worth looking forward to (1009)

Abstract: The short-term market has made a callback, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate, and the altcoin is the main link. Although the market has already anticipated Bitwise's Bitcoin ETF application, it does not rule out the possibility of fermentation in recent days, with a focus on the news.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 09, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 160.611 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -0.98%, the total turnover was 368.04 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -18.29%. The market activity is significantly reduced. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), XLM had the largest drop in 24 hours (-2.15%), and BNB had the smallest drop in 24 hours (-0.57%). The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11380.98 points, which rose to -1.41% in 24 hours, reflecting a major correction.

The Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 91.46 points, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.15%. The risk aversion sentiment increased slightly. The Alternative sentiment index was 37, a slight decrease from yesterday (39), and the market sentiment was still fearful. USDT's 24-hour ups and downs were -0.02%. Today's net inflow of funds was 4,292,371,100 yuan, a slight decrease from yesterday; ChaiNext USDT's over-the-counter discount index was 99.47, which was up to -0.26% in 24 hours.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 87) has increased from the previous value (peak 95), but is still close to a one-month low. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (46), South Africa (42), Austria (40), Brazil (39), Switzerland (36) and Germany (36). Among the related query words, the first increase in the search volume ranks bitcoin etf. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 51) has fallen back from the previous value (peak 84), approaching a one-month low.

Analyst's point of view:

ETF is the abbreviation of Exchange Traded Funds, which refers to open-end funds with variable share that can be traded on the compliant exchange. If the Bitcoin ETF is approved, it will not only improve the security of asset management, but also lower the investment threshold, thereby attracting more institutions, users and funds into the crypto asset market.

Since last year, the Bitcoin ETF has become a hot topic in the industry, but according to statistics, since the first Bitcoin ETF application was rejected in 2014, it has been rejected 15 times, and the reasons for rejection are: There are fraudulent or price manipulations in the bitcoin market, and the lack of price and the lack of regulated transactions will increase the difficulty of regulation.

On October 13, Bitwise Investments' Bitcoin ETF will be "final" by the SEC, and once passed, this can be a milestone in the encryption of assets. However, although the recent SEC's refusal statement has eased, VanEck and SolidX also did not know why they retired last month, and the much-anticipated Bakkt exchange is still worrying about the volume of trading soon. It has been expected: Bitcoin ETF adoption is a matter of time, but the path to go may be slower than most people think.

First, the spot BTC market

In the early morning of this morning, the BTC touched a minimum of $8,100 and then rose slightly. It continued the shock market and there was the possibility of a short-term uplift. Recently, we are concerned about the news. If the ETF event is fermented, there will be a possibility of a change.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 209,903,300 yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 5,539,700 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 2,372,000 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 117.90 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 12,075,000 yuan. The market has mostly net inflows of medium and small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC network was 102.09EH/s, which was higher than the previous day (98.63EH/s), which was close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 671,400, compared with the previous day ( 6.632 million) increased slightly, approaching the three-month average; the trading volume on the chain was 750,900, which was significantly higher than the previous day (620,400), which was close to the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed was 11.6842 million (historical median), compared with the previous day. (706.33 million) increased significantly, but the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

After ETH went down to $178, it oscillated upwards. It is now approaching yesterday's high of $185, and it continues to rise. The relative price of ETH's BTC came near yesterday's high, and its short-term performance remained strong.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was 287,732,700 yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 6,249,300 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 54.027 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 59.39 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 29,909,400 yuan. There are big differences in the market, mainly based on the net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. The game application My Crypto Heroes has a 24-hour active user number of 2.9k, 24 hours change -4.77%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 2.1k, 24 hours change +27.61%; trading application ForkDelta 24-hour active users 332 , 24 hours change -9.78%.

Third, the spot LTC market

The LTC/BTC transaction was slightly oscillating, and LTC was short-lived with BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 20,456,400 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 5.246 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 1490.84 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 50,579,400 yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 5,088.14 million. There are differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 291.86TH/s, which was a rebound from yesterday (270.50TH/s), which was close to the low of six months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. However, if continuous innovation is low, there is a risk of stamping. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (9.57 million) increased significantly from the previous day (61,300), higher than the one-month average; the transaction volume on the LTC chain (175.17 million) fell slightly from the previous day (209.28 million), close to the monthly low; The number of currency days destroyed (38.463 million, historically small) was significantly higher than the previous day (789.70 million), but the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Yesterday, the EOS/BTC transaction fluctuated slightly, and it is currently around 0.000389 BTC. The short-term performance is slightly stronger.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 13.0491 million, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 10.70 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 4002.51 million yuan, the middle single (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 9,723,700 yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 47,450,700 yuan. There are serious differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp increased slightly. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2.9k, which is +7.68% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users of the trading application Newdex is 1.4k, which is -6.37% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 1.5k. Yesterday's change -6.85%; data application Lumeos's 24-hour active users 1.1k, +9.78% change from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured separately.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to bottom up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

The news side may be fermented and wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%). 4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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