QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin halved 200 days, Sino-US trade relations eased (1012)

Abstract: At present, the next time Bitcoin is halved down by 200 days, there will probably be a wave of gains before halving next year. The new round of Sino-US trade consultations has staged results, the trade war has eased, and the safe-haven assets are clearly under pressure. After the rapid decline of the broader market yesterday, it has stabilized today, with short-term fluctuations.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 12, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,626.624 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -3.17%, the total turnover was 459.561 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +7.17%. Market activity has increased. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), ETH had the largest drop in 24 hours (-5.91%) and XRP had the smallest drop in 24 hours (-0.70%). The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11531.22 points, a 24-hour rise to -4.05%, reflecting a significant decline in the broader market.

The Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 94.25 points, up or down -0.43% in 24 hours, indicating that Bitcoin's performance in the overall market was slightly weaker; the Alternative sentiment index was 38, slightly lower than yesterday (39), and the market sentiment remained fear. USDT has a 24-hour up/down of +0.33%. The current net inflow of funds today is 182,853,400 yuan, which is lower than yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT over-the-counter discount index is reported at 100.32, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.05%.

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In the past day, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 84) decreased slightly from the previous value (peak 89), approaching the median of a month. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (51), South Africa (39), Brazil (36), Switzerland (36), Austria (36) and Germany (34). Among the related query words, the search volume of bitcoin halving rose to the first place. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 55) has dropped from the previous value (peak 67), which is close to a one-month low. In related query terms, the search for ethereum wykres (Polish, Quotes) increased. Ranked first.

Analyst's point of view:

According to the current data calculations such as the whole network, the next time Bitcoin is halved, there are still about 200 days. Due to the mechanism design of Bitcoin, the block rewards will be halved every four years. Bitcoin has been halved twice in November 2012 and July 2016, and the third halving is expected around May next year. Occurs, there may be two major effects during the period:

On the macro level, the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin will be reduced from 3.60% to 1.79% in a very short period of time, which is a long-term positive for Bitcoin, and the market will be rewarded in the block if the demand for Bitcoin does not change much. Before the halving, the bitcoin price will have a higher expectation; on the micro level, the miners will be reduced from the current 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In the case of short-term bitcoin price changes, the halving will be halved. It will cause a sharp drop in the income of miners, which will cause some miners to withdraw and bring a risk of selling pressure.

Since the current bitcoin price is in the stage of deep adjustment, it is likely that there will be a wave of gains before halving next year.

In the early morning news, the new round of consultations between China and the United States had staged results, and the Sino-US trade war had eased. After the news came out, risk assets such as US stocks expanded more than yesterday, and safe-haven assets such as US dollars, gold and bitcoin were under pressure. According to reports, the two sides have made progress in the fields of agriculture, intellectual property rights, exchange rates, financial services, expanding trade cooperation, technology transfer, and dispute settlement. The US suspended the tariff increase of US$250 billion on imported goods, and China agreed to purchase 40 to 50 billion US dollars of agricultural products. However, the US has not changed its plan to impose a 15% tariff on US$160 billion in products from December 15.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, the BTC continued to fall back. After hitting a low of $8,220, it is currently fluctuating around the previous high, and the short-term range is dominated.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 41,458,300 yuan. Among them, the over-single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 1996.493 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 6.7364 million yuan, the middle single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 109.29 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 37.652 million yuan. The market is mostly out of a large single net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 110.33EH/s, which was significantly higher than the previous day, and hit a record high. The long-term upward trend has not changed. The number of active addresses on the chain is 705,400, which is higher than the previous day and higher than one month. Mean; the trading volume on the chain was 7.174 million, which was lower than the previous day and lower than the median value of one month; the number of coins destroyed in the day was 5,386,700 (historically smaller), which was higher than the previous day, but the long-term upward trend was not met. damage.

Second, the spot ETH market

In the early hours of the morning, ETH hit a minimum of $180 with a small amount of heavy volume. The Air Force was temporarily suppressed and is now near the high point of the previous days. The ETH/BTC trade rebounded after a small heavy volume down to 0.0217BTC, and it has also returned to the level of the previous few days. The short-term relative performance has turned from weak to strong.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 185,564,200 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 7.786 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 16.9044 million yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 117,890,800 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 2,945,800 yuan. There are differences in the market, mainly based on the net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has dropped. Game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 3k, 24 hours change +3.86%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 3k, 24-hour change -15.68%; trading application ForkDelta 24-hour active users 343,24 Hourly change – 6.79%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Today, LTC fluctuated slightly at $56, showing moderation and short-term linkage.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 83.165 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 14.488 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 2014.76 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 507.957 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 67.055 million yuan. There are major differences in the market, with net outflows of small orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, LTC's overall network computing power averaged 274.39TH / s, slightly higher than yesterday, close to the low point of six months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power will decline and it will take some time to recover. However, if the continuous innovation is low, there is a risk of stamping. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (61,400) was slightly lower than the previous day, close to a one-month low; the transaction volume on the LTC chain (237.80 million) increased from the previous day, lower than the monthly average; the number of coins destroyed (179.86 million) The historical value is smaller, which is significantly lower than the previous day, and the long-term trend has not been destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

The EOS has a small upside after reaching a minimum of $3.00. The short-term performance is slightly stronger, or it will be the first to attack.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 161,845,200 yuan. Among them, the over-single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 6,953,600 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 662,000 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 4,342,270 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 13,217,600 yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp dropped slightly. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 3k, which is -0.97% compared with yesterday. The trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users is 1.5k, which is -0.87% compared with yesterday. The quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users is 1.3k, compared with yesterday. The change was -25.78%; the number of 24-hour active users of the data application Lumeos was 1.2k, which was +0.34% change from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS faucet EOS is close to the low of the year and can be configured separately.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to make a short-term bottom-up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Not yet out of the bottom section, wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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