QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin is multi-empty, the altcoin is relatively strong (0823)

Abstract: At present, the performance of the altcoin is relatively strong. Bitcoin continues to be glued around 10,000 US dollars. The amount and amplitude are small, and the possibility of short-term change is greater.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on August 23, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 191.281 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by +2.22%, the total turnover was 391.051 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -8.69%. Market activity has decreased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported at 13924.08 points, up 24 hours to +2.62%; the Alternative sentiment index was 33, which was significantly higher than yesterday (5), and the market performance changed from extreme fear to fear.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), EOS had the largest increase in 24 hours (+4.29%), and LTC had the smallest increase in 24 hours (+1.13%). BTC rose by +1.81% in 24 hours, market share (67.63%) was slightly lower than yesterday (67.73%), ETH was up or down +3.32% in 24 hours, market share (7.68%) was slightly higher than yesterday (7.57%). Increased, market risk aversion is still high. ChaiNext USDT's off-exchange discount premium index was 99.73 points, up 24 hours to -0.20%, and USDT's net outflow today was 33.306 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday.

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Today's global Bitcoin Google search trend relative value (peak 100) increased significantly compared to yesterday (peak 84), hitting a new high in the past seven days. The top five countries are Nigeria (100), Brazil (61), Austria (54), South Africa (50) and Ghana (50). Among them, Brazil's search heat (peak 87) increased significantly compared to yesterday (peak 65).

Analyst's point of view: At present, the amount and amplitude of Bitcoin are small, and the possibility of short-term change is greater. Short-term shocks will adjust the situation or will continue. Long-term still look at more, the judgment basis is detailed in the early May report "QKL123 Research Report | Bears come to the cattle – Bitcoin to open a new cycle" .

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, the BTC dropped its volume to 9,756 US dollars at 09:00, and the Air Force temporarily suppressed it. However, the long-term upside momentum was obviously insufficient, and the short-term and short-term reduction of 10,000 US dollars was small, and the possibility of short-term change was greater. From the 4-hour K-line point of view, the BTC is currently in the downward extension zone of the short-term convergence triangle, and there is the possibility of upward convergence. It is also necessary to observe the direction of the energy direction to make judgments.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 112,517,800 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (799.721 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 101.887 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 27,603,400 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 571.961 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 175.925 million yuan. The market is mostly built in the middle of the market.

2. Fundamentals

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 70.70EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (72.46EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 3.664 million (historically smaller), which was smaller than the previous day (5.9062 million). The long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 826,500, a slight increase from the previous day (75.71 million), higher than the average of the past month.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH has risen from a small fluctuation of the previous day's low of $179. It hit a high of $195 in the early hours of the morning and then fluctuated around $190. Yesterday, ETH showed relatively strong performance. After the ETH/BTC transaction hit a maximum of 0.0119 BTC, it has slightly decreased to 0.0189BTC and then adjusted slightly.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 193,488,900 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday (-10,263,700 yuan). Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 4.5992 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 50,303,700 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 58.28 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 79.631 million yuan. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow of 1,258 ETH was significantly lower than yesterday (2,739 ETH), and the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow of 1,341 ETH was reduced from yesterday (1,525 ETH); the game encryption hero's 24-hour activity The number of users was 2,630, a slight increase from yesterday (2,608); the number of 24-hour transactions in the stable currency Paxos Standard was 852, which was lower than yesterday (1,068).

Third, the spot LTC market

At 09:00 yesterday, the LTC touched the bottom of 71 US dollars and then went up. It is currently fluctuating around 73 US dollars. The LTC/BTC trading pair fluctuated around 0.0074BTC. It hit a high of 0.0074BTC high yesterday and then fell back.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 3.179 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 83.3135 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow 2989.70 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 2578.90 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 88.618 million yuan. There are big differences in the market, and most of them are built in small orders.

2. Fundamentals

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 289.78TH/s, which is significantly lower than yesterday (321.62TH/s), approaching the lowest point in three months. After the block reward is halved, the computing power will tend to decrease. Part of the miner's withdrawal or equipment elimination is related and it will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (122.585 million, historically small), slightly increased from the previous day (111.192 million), the long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the chain was 67,700, a slight increase from the previous day (66,200), close to the one-month average.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Yesterday, EOS fluctuated from $3.50, and after the maximum hit of $3.7, the power was adjusted. At present, the multi-military forces have the momentum to rise again. Yesterday, the EOS/BTC transaction hit a high of 0.00036 BTC, which was relatively strong.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 20,812,600 yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday (90,491,900 yuan). Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 10.798 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 45.563 million yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 10.11 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 3.14 million yuan. The market is still mostly reduced by large orders.

2. Fundamentals

Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp increased slightly. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game DAPP365 is 5,917, which is slightly higher than yesterday (5,906); the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Texas Hold'em is 1,250, which is slightly higher than yesterday (1,232); 24 hours of entertainment game WinPlay The number of active users was 868, which was an increase from yesterday (669).

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The smart contract platform leader ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, the DPoS leader EOS BTC transaction pair is at a low level in the year, and the opportunity to reverse is available.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term BTCs are more likely to continue to adjust their reserves, and they can increase their positions on a dip.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term wait and see, waiting for the direction.

Appendix – Index Interpretation

Babbitt Composite Index The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

Alternative Emotional Index The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in the market's mood, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

USDT Off- Site Depreciation Index ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

Net inflow of funds (out) This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days held by Bitcoin. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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