QKL123 market analysis | market wide fluctuations, long and short continue to wait and see (0929)

Abstract: Today, Bitcoin has slightly fallen back after the pin is inserted, and the altcoin currency is mainly based on Bitcoin. In a short period of time, the market is long and short, and the range continues to fluctuate. At present, Bitcoin has fallen to the 200-day moving average, and the high probability is the bottom of the phase adjustment, but the market may continue for some time.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 29, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,852.502 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -0.49%, the total turnover was 352.758 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -12.46%. Market activity has decreased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11064.36 points, up 24 hours to -0.94%; the Alternative sentiment index was 33, a slight increase from yesterday (32), and the market sentiment was fear.

The Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 97.04 points, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.50%, and market risk aversion increased slightly. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), ETH had the largest drop in 24-hour hours (-1.44%), and BCH had the largest increase in 24 hours (+1.09%). USDT has risen and fallen to +0.52% for 24 hours. Today's net inflow of funds was 358.827 million yuan, a slight increase from yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT over-the-counter discount index was reported at 100.86, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.14%.

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In the past day, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 40) has fallen from the previous value (peak 50), approaching a one-month low. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Brazil (49), South Africa (49), Ghana (48), Austria (46), Switzerland (45) and Germany (40). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 48) has fallen back from the previous value (peak 57), approaching a one-month low.

Analyst's point of view:

Since the opening of a new bull market in April this year, Bitcoin has now oscillated near the 200-day moving average, and the probability of a double dip is small. The high probability is the bottom of the short-term adjustment phase. However, there is no signal of heavy volume up in a short time, and the market is still stuck in the long and short. Recently, the market may continue to shake the market and wash the plate. It is only after the main force kills the bloody chips.

First, the spot BTC market

At 6 o'clock in the morning, the BTC pulled the needle more than 8,300 US dollars and then went down slightly, and there was a small amount of heavy volume.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 49,613,800 yuan, a decrease from yesterday. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 69.20 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 36.23 million yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 3.8203 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 8.671 million yuan. The market is mostly net inflows.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 91.45EH/s, which was slightly lower than the previous day (92.55EH/s), which was close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 448,900, compared with the previous day ( 68.30 million) markedly declining, close to the low point of three months; the trading volume on the chain was 536,700, which was significantly lower than the previous day (88.87 million), close to a one-month low; the number of currency days destroyed was 4,911.9 thousand (historical value) ), significantly less than the previous day (730.35 million), the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday morning, ETH's small-volume upswing reached a maximum of 176 US dollars, and the ETH's BTC relative price also reached a maximum of 0.0216 BTC. It is now oscillating around the 0.010 BTC before the BTC plunging, and the short-term performance is weak.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 352,262,400 yuan, a slight decrease from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 902.08 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 11.315 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 50.74 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 423.906 million yuan. There are differences in the market, mainly based on the net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased, adding 5 DApps. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.4k, 24 hours change +6.28%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.4k, 24-hour change -17.45%; trading application ForkDelta 24-hour active users The number is 453, 24 hours change +94.42%.

Third, the spot LTC market

The previous day LTC/BTC trading rebounded, and the highest rebound to 0.0069BTC fell slightly. It is now down to around 0.0067BTC, and it is slightly weak in a short time.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 135,864,400 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large orders (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 8.615 million yuan, the net outflow of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 1110.77 yuan, and the net outflow of medium orders (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 4360.07 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 89.57 million yuan. The market is mostly net outflows of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 275.90TH/s, which was lower than yesterday (314.18TH/s), which was close to the new low of six months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. However, it went down again yesterday. This is related to the recent collapse in LTC prices. If continuous innovation is low, there is a risk of stamping. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the LTC chain (69,200) decreased slightly from the previous day, close to a one-month low; the trading volume of the LTC chain (182.03 million) fell back from the previous day, close to the low of the month; The number (573.78 million, the historically small value) was significantly lower than the previous day (1056.55 million), and the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

At 00 o'clock today, EOS hit a low of 2.8 USD and then oscillated down. The EOS/BTC transaction was back to the previous day's 0.000344 BTC, and the short-term linkage was dominated by Bitcoin.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 45,439,700 yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the large net (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 2,395,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 6,275,100 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 5,627,500 yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 47,187,100 yuan. There are certain differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp increased slightly, and the number of new Dapps was zero. Among them, the game EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2.8k, which is +4.25% compared with yesterday; the data application Lumeos's 24-hour active users is 1.5k, which is -0.61% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who use PokerKing is 1.3k. , compared with yesterday's change -1.32%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.4k, compared with yesterday's change +5.96%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured separately.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to bottom up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

High throwing and low sucking.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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