QKL123 market analysis | No turning point in the global epidemic, U.S. stock futures re-melt, Bitcoin linkage down (0323)

Abstract: After the market rebounded for three consecutive days, it continued to be affected by global capital markets. Recently, the market's risk aversion has not diminished, and Bitcoin has largely fluctuated.

At 10:30 today, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 8304.92 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -7.65%, reflecting a sharp decline in the broader market; the total turnover was 9761.83 yuan, a 24-hour change of -3.00%, and market activity declined slightly. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 98.42 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 1.43%. The relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has weakened significantly. The ChaiNext USDT OTC premium index was reported at 103.90. The premium level has increased.

Analyst perspective:

• Digital data verification platform Attestiv completes $ 2 million seed round financing, led by Castle Island Ventures
• Babbitt Column | Opinion: Bitcoin is a refuge fund, not a hedge fund
• Opinion: The world economy is on the verge of crisis once again, cryptocurrencies will be strong

Today, the decline in the three major US stock index futures widened after opening lower, once again hitting the fuse limit, with a drop of nearly 5%. Facing last week's Fed policy mix, the market still has no willingness to pay. At present, the global epidemic is still spreading, with 28,208 newly diagnosed cases worldwide, and there is no obvious turning point. Among them, the United States (today's data) has 6,326 new diagnoses, which has surpassed Italy for three consecutive days, becoming the country with the largest number of new diagnoses in the world, which has brought great downward pressure on the current US economy.

However, after the stock market crash, most people may only see the tip of the iceberg. Today, France, Italy, Spain, and South Korea and other countries and regions have started to restrict stock transactions, and even banned short-selling transactions. problem. The global supply chain has been disrupted in the epidemic, and the huge amount of corporate debt is about to expire. This will be a disaster for companies that have been accustomed to living with debt models.

There is nothing wrong with escaping in a crisis, it's just a way for investors to survive. Under the constraints of global liquidity, all types of capital markets have not been spared. The stock market disaster is only a warning sign, and the crisis of trust behind it is the real crisis. Under the global epidemic disaster, from a small number of people to each other, to big countries began to tear. The crisis itself is not terrible. What is terrible is the subsequent chain reaction: economic depression, debt breakdown, corporate bankruptcy, worker unemployment, etc.

First, the spot BTC market

A large number of chips are concentrated around the $ 7,100 area, which has put a lot of pressure on prices. Last Friday, after BTC received the upper shadow line, three Yinxian lines appeared in succession. On the daily line, the MACD is highly coincident, the crocodile indicator continues to close, and the short-term market has fallen back to the lower side of the $ 5300 chip concentration area. Recently, it has continued to fluctuate widely.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH had a minimum downward insertion of 120 US dollars the day before, and gradually weakened after a rapid rebound. At present, it is testing the support level. If it is linked with BTC, it will see 110 US dollars below.

Third, the spot BCH market

The performance of BCH and ETH is similar, the rebound trend is weak, and the Japanese K-line is overcast. At present, the air force is down, and the strength of the Air Force cannot be underestimated. There is a possibility of further release. The support of $ 168 below is strong. Although the halving is still half a month, the positive expectations are difficult to fulfill in the bear market stage, and it is currently difficult to get out of the independent market.

Fourth, the spot LTC market

LTC's recent fall has been relatively large. At present, it has fallen back to the $ 30 to $ 35 chip concentration area below. It has been linked with BTC to test key support for a short time.

V. Spot EOS Quotes

The day before yesterday, EOS inserted USD 1.9, indicating strong support here. However, it continued to decline after a rapid rebound, and continued to fall back to test support for a short time.

Six, spot ETC market

ETC has fallen from its rebound high in the past few days. At present, it has smoothed out the previous gains and came to the area where the chip concentration area below fluctuated. The amount can shrink. The short-term linkage of BTC is mainly.

Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is bad, but the price is not far from the bottom, it is a good time for Tun Coin to invest. You can refer to the coin storage indicator. The smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, and ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2. Midline (January to March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for Bitcoin to get out of the bottom in a short period of time, and those with small positions intervene in batches.

3． Short-term (1-3 days)

In the fall test support, if there is a heavy volume in the short term and the support is strong, the small position can be absorbed by the low position to rebound.

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Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin in the market. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely fearful" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

6.BTC-coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39. %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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