QKL123 market analysis | Others panic, I am greedy, the time to ambush the altcoin? (0724)

Abstract: In a short period of time, BTC fell below 10,000 US dollars, but the amount can shrink, the probability of continuing to fluctuate within a range, and most altcoins are in an oversold state, which is a good time to ambush. In the short term, the market tends to change space for time; from the perspective of historical comprehensive performance, the long-term volatility of BTC remains unchanged.

According to QKL123 statistics, on July 24, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,855.354 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -5.42%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 418.31 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed + 12.61%, 24-hour market activity has increased. The market value of BTC accounted for 64.82%, and the market value of ETH accounted for 8.36%. The market risk aversion is still high, but it has continued to decline in recent days.

At 1100, the top ten crypto assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BCH fell the most in 24 hours (-8.05%), EOS had the smallest 24-hour drop (-0.13%); BTC rose 24 hours in the range of -5.50%, LTC 24 Hourly rise and fall -5.54%, ETH 24 hours up or down -4.48%. USDT's 24-hour up/down +0.10%, 24-hour turnover rate of 4.97%, OTC capital inflows increased slightly compared with yesterday.

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At 12 o'clock, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 14,151.52 points, 24 hours up and down -5.32%; alternative.me sentiment index was 20, significantly lower than yesterday (40), the market performance changed from fear to extreme fear. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend is slightly lower than yesterday, lower than the average of the past seven days.

Analyst's point of view: The hearing on USDT will be held on July 29th. This potential mine is the biggest source of bad news in the near future, and it will be good once it is exhausted. The short-term BTC has the potential to re-examine the bottom of $9,000, and the short-term high probability continues the range volatility. At present, most altcoins are at a low level during the year and are good ambush opportunities.

First, the spot BTC market 24H highest: ¥67670.85 24H minimum: ¥66740.21

At 7 o'clock this morning, BTC's small volume fell below 10,000 US dollars, and short-term support at 9,600 US dollars. The long and short positions are still in a stalemate state, with a high probability range. In a short period of time, BTC is likely to continue to test the strong support level of $9,000, and it is also possible to attack 10,000 dollars, the market uncertainty is not reduced.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net outflow of BTC funds today was 3,264.4 billion yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 104.21 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 419.93 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 232.6 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 40.56 million yuan. There are differences in the market, mainly to lighten up.

Yesterday, the number of BTC coins destroyed was 486.24 (lower historical value), which was significantly lower than the previous day (599.27 million), and the chain movement continued to decrease. Recently, there are no giant whales outside the field to concentrate on selling pressure, and the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

2. Fundamentals

Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 281 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 63.99 EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (65.01 EH/s), still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 669,400, a slight increase from the previous day (663,300), close to the three-month low. At present, the relative indicator MVRV of BTC valuation is around 2.0. The imbalance between supply and demand in the market still exists, and the space for further exploration in the short term still exists.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): Currently in the short-term partial adjustment stage, the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years, and can open positions on dips.

Mid-line (January-March): The short-term shocks will adjust the situation unchanged, and the downside risks and downside space will be small, and the positions can be opened on dips.

Short-term (1-3 days): Uncertainty is not reduced, choose the opportunity to move. Resistance is $10,000 and support is $9,000.

Second, the spot ETH market

24H highest: ¥1528.64 24H minimum: ¥1433.50

At 8 o'clock this morning, ETH dropped 200 US dollars, the amount can be released, and short-term support, there are signs of stabilization.

Fund face

As of 08:16, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 173.98 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 34.14 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 13.93 million yuan, and the middle is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The net outflow was 51.12 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 170.83 million yuan. The market has little divergence, mainly based on small orders.

In the early hours of the morning, the ETH/BTC transaction plunged from 0.0212 BTC to 0.0217BTC, and then a large neutron k-line amount was released, and then returned to near 0.0212 BTC. After the market is over, BTC is expected to stabilize, and ETH is likely to be relatively strong.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of game encryption heroes (2,798) increased or decreased by +1.97% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour total flow of pledges by DAI (7,389 ETH) increased or decreased by +0.88% compared with yesterday, and the 24-hour total flow of trading platform IDEX (2,285 ETH) increased or decreased by +0.33% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (1,138) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by -0.35% compared with yesterday.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The ETH 2.0 project of the smart contract platform is in the process of advancement, and it is expected to step out of the independent market in the future.

Midline (January-March): Downside space is limited, and positions can be opened on dips.

Short-term (1-3 days): The market is uncertain, and the opportunity is moving. Resistance is $230, support is $200, target is $215, stop loss is $190, and take profit is $230.

Third, the spot LTC market

24H highest: ¥654.83 24H minimum: ¥611.66

Yesterday, LTC followed the BTC shock, and short-term support at 85 US dollars and a small rebound, the amount can continue to shrink, long and short is in a stale state, the follow-up trend depends on the direction of BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 256 billion yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 78.53 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 20.54 million yuan, and the net is between medium and small (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan). Inflow of 27.26 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 110.85 million yuan. There are major differences in the market, mainly based on small orders.

From the daily line, the LTC/BTC transaction has achieved good support at 0.008 BTC, and there is not much room for downside, and a large amount of energy support is obtained near 0.008 BTC to 0.01 BTC, indicating that the market is absorbing in this range. The action is more frequent. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed was 1083.21. 24 (historically smaller), which was significantly smaller than the previous day (916.31 million). The chain action continued to decrease. There was no giant whale concentrated throwing action outside the field, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

2. Fundamentals

Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 12 days

At present, the total network computing power of LTC is 513.76 TH/s, which is higher than yesterday (457.19 TH/s). It is close to the same period of last month, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 76,600, a slight increase from the previous day (73,800), close to the two-month low. At present, the LVR valuation relative indicator MVRV is around 1, the market supply and demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the space for further exploration in the short term is small.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): At present, the LTC/BTC trading pair is close to the low point of the beginning of the year, and can open positions on dips.

Midline (January-March): Short-term downside risks and downside space are small, and positions can be opened on dips.

Short-term (1-3 days): The risk of shorting is greater, and the opportunity is moving. Resistance is $105, support is $85, target is $95, stop loss is $85, and take profit is $105.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

24H highest: ¥29.86 24H minimum: ¥27.92

After the rebound, EOS is more like a transition to the fishtail market. It is supported by a short-term support of 4 dollars, with a small downside, and short-term linkage of BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was $36.51 million. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 36.78 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 1.26 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 4.38 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 67.65 million yuan. The market has little difference, mainly based on small orders.

The EOS/BTC trading pair has hit a new low this year. There is a clear K-line pin at 0.00035BTC, which has rebounded so far. After the oversold rebound, it tends to rise steadily.

2. Fundamentals

Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has increased. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Texas Hold'em (1,194) increased or decreased by -0.33% compared with yesterday, the number of active users of entertainment application EOS Royale (637) increased or decreased by +0.00% compared with yesterday; 24 hours of trading platform DEXEOS The total flow (83,710 EOS) increased or decreased by +8.78% compared with yesterday, and the 24-hour total flow of the trading platform Newdex (37,294 ETH) increased or decreased by +12.18% from yesterday.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The leader of the DPoS project, it is possible to step out of the independent market in the future, and can open positions on dips.

Midline (January-March): At present, it is oversold and can be opened at dips.

Short-term (1-3 days): Look at the direction of the BTC and choose the opportunity to move. Resistance is $4.50 and support is $4.00.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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