QKL123 market analysis | The key moment is coming, bitcoin $ 9,000 bottoming? (0717)

Abstract: In a short period of time, the BTC decline can be released more fully, with oversold rebound demand, focusing on whether BTC has a bottoming signal around $9,000. In the short-term, the downside of BTC and ETH is very limited. It is expected to be bottomed out in the near future, and the demand form can be confirmed. In the long run, from the historical comprehensive performance of BTC, its upward trend has not changed.

According to QKL123 statistics, on July 17, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,760.504 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -13.81%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 552.712 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed – 0.27%, 24-hour market activity decreased slightly. The market value of BTC accounted for 65.64%, which was slightly lower than yesterday (66.10%). The market value of ETH accounted for 8.41%, which was slightly lower than yesterday (8.54%). The risk aversion of the market is still high, but it has declined slightly.

At 11 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), EOS fell the most in 24 hours (-16.16%), followed by ETH (-14.54%); BTC rose by -13.68% in 24 hours, LTC rose 24 hours The amplitude is -13.14%. The USDT's 24-hour up/down was +0.27%, the 24-hour turnover rate was 5.93%, and the market value (27.723 billion yuan) was slightly higher than yesterday's (274.44 billion yuan). The over-the-counter capital inflow was significantly higher than yesterday.

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At 11 o'clock today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 13,286.41 points, 24 hours up to -13.24%; alternative.me sentiment index was 34, compared with yesterday (16), the market performance was reduced from extreme panic to panic. Today, Bitcoin's Google search trend has increased slightly from yesterday, higher than the same period last month.

Analyst's point of view: BTC continues to explore effective support, and the downside market downside risk is further reduced. From the historical comprehensive performance of BTC, the current downside space is very limited, and the recent focus on whether the US$9,000 is around the bottom of the stage.

First, the spot BTC market

24H highest: ¥67119.53 24H minimum: ¥64805.46

In the early morning of this morning, the empty army once again pressed, BTC fell below 10,000 US dollars again, and continued to kill near the $ 9,000 mark. The Air Force killed the amount at this gate. Is there enough ammunition to continue to kill? At present, long and short wins and losses are not divided, you need to wait for the amount of energy to go out to confirm whether it is a staged bottom, but the market is likely to turn around here.

Fund face

As of 13:30, the net outflow of BTC funds today was 3.723 billion yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net outflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 1,044.3 million yuan, the net outflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 1,453.8 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 1,165.7 million yuan. The market has a lot of panic shipping.

Yesterday, the number of BTC coins destroyed was 8,991,200 (small historical value), which was higher than the previous day (6,178,800). Recently, there are no giant whales in the field to concentrate on selling pressure, and the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

2. Fundamentals

The next block reward halved countdown estimate: 287 days

At present, BTC's total network computing power is 66.15EH/s, which is higher than yesterday (63.90EH/s), still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 749,300, a slight decrease from the previous day (7.572 million), higher than the average of three months. The BVR valuation relative indicator MVRV dropped below 2.0, and the market supply and demand imbalance has been further alleviated. From the past few bull markets, the US$9,000 (corresponding to MVRV around 1.7) is likely to be a stage in the evolution of this bull market. At the bottom, the amount of energy conversion and morphological evolution of the gate needs to be focused.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): Long-term can be added to the position, currently in the short-term partial adjustment stage, the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years.

Mid-line (January-March): Short-term downside risks and downside space are small, it is recommended to increase positions.

Short-term (1-3 days): Bo Chao fell back to rebound demand and strictly controlled positions. Resistance is $10,000, support is $9,000, target is $9,500, stop loss is $8,500, and take profit is $10,000.

Second, the spot ETH market

24H highest: ¥1466.26 24H minimum: ¥1381.09

ETH continues to kill with the BTC, and currently falls below $200. There is still a downside risk in the short term. The space under the ETH shock is gradually reduced, and the stage bottom may appear near $180. Wait for the shape confirmation, focusing on the direction of the energy.

Fund face

As of 13:32, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 433.05 million yuan, a slight decrease from yesterday (45.651 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 35.29 million yuan, the net outflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 111.07 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 35.27 million yuan. There are still differences in the market, large investors intend to open positions, and retail investors focus on lightening positions.

The ETH/BTC trading pair continued to drop to 0.0201 BTC, which has fallen below the low point of this year, and the probability of turning around is gradually increasing. At present, although the market risk aversion is still relatively high, it has slightly improved. If the BTC stabilizes at $9,000, ETH is likely to perform relatively strong.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow (10,005 ETH) increased or decreased by +0.81% compared with yesterday, the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow (3,620 ETH) increased or decreased by +0.89% compared with yesterday; the game encryption hero's 24-hour active user The number (1,282) increased or decreased by -5.32% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users of video application Livepeer (104) increased or decreased by -6.31% compared with yesterday, and the number of 24-hour active users of social application status (112) increased or decreased from -0.89. %; Stables Paxos Standard's 24-hour trades (1,581) increased or decreased by -0.13% from yesterday, and the forecast market Augur's 24-hour trades (266) increased or decreased by -1.22% from yesterday.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The ETH 2.0 project of the smart contract platform is in the process of advancement, and it is expected to step out of the independent market in the future.

Midline (January-March): Downside space is limited, and positions can be opened on dips.

Short-term (1-3 days): Bo Chao fell back and noticed the bottom signal. Resistance is $230, support is $180, and target is $200.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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