QKL123 market analysis | The market rebound is weak, beware of the risk of breaking the position (1120)

Abstract: In a short period of time, the market has slightly declined, and the rebound of the mainstream currency is weak. The ecological development of Bitcoin supports the market value of Bitcoin. As long as the general trend remains unchanged, Bitcoin has a long-term upward trend.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 20, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,957.787 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -0.72%, the total turnover was 504.810 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -1.68%. Market activity has declined slightly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11462.87 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall of -0.41%, reflecting a slight decline in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 92.67 points, and the 24-hour price was -0.21%. The relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market was slightly lower. Weakened; the Alternative sentiment index was 32, which was the same as yesterday (32), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-3.67%), and XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (+2.72%). USDT has risen and fallen to -0.12% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 28.08 million yuan, a slight decrease from yesterday; USDC has risen and fallen to -0.27% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 8,125,100 yuan, which is opposite to yesterday. Turn; ChaiNext USDT OTC discount premium index reported 100.29, 24 hours up and down to +0.46%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 93) dropped slightly from the previous value (peak 95), approaching the one-month average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (47), South Africa (45), Austria (45), Germany (42), Switzerland (40) and the Netherlands (35). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 60) fell sharply from the previous value (peak 100), below the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

For more than a decade, the market value of Bitcoin has continued to grow. Although there are short-term speculations, the increase in actual demand is the real support behind it. Bitcoin was originally an experiment of geek players, but after years of technological evolution and marketization, the industrial ecology surrounding Bitcoin has grown, and more and more organizations or individuals have participated.

At present, Bitcoin industry ecology mainly includes mining industry, technology development and related services. The mining industry has formed a chain of interests around the chip mining machine, including individual miners, mine pools, cloud computing mining, etc.; technology development around Bitcoin continues, including on-chain technology development, wallet functions, Development activities such as chain application; with the financial and currency attributes of Bitcoin, financial services such as payment, transaction, custody, ATM, and other peripheral services such as media and data are also growing. The participating entities include traditional financial institutions and various startup companies. , physical merchants and individual users.

Bitcoin has a strong network effect, and the more users, the more valuable it is. In the next few years, with the continuous iteration of technology and the continuous improvement of infrastructure, it is believed that there will be more subjects and users involved in various fields of Bitcoin ecology. First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, BTC got support at 8,000 US dollars, and the indicator showed oversold. However, the current rebound is weak, and the contraction is fluctuating, and it needs to wait for stabilization.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 751.096 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 9,056,800 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 98,436,900 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 274,437,000 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 364,166,000 yuan. Today's market is consistently bullish, with net inflows of small single funds mostly.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 83.47EH/s, which was significantly lower than the previous day. It was close to a one-month low. The 30-day moving average coincided with the 60-day moving average. The mining approached the break-even point. The active address on the chain was 77.75. 10,000, significantly higher than the previous day, close to a one-month high; the trading volume on the chain was 955,000, which was higher than the previous day and lower than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed was 5,770,300 (historically smaller), compared with the previous day. Fall back, below the one-month average.

Second, the spot ETH market

Since yesterday, ETH has been slightly stronger than BTC, and has received short-term support at $170. There is no significant heavy volume, and it is still showing a downward trend.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was 136.5041 million yuan. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 17.90 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 1.307 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Inflow of 99.946 million yuan, small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 32.205 million yuan. The market is slightly different, with a net inflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased. The game application My Crypto Heroes has a 24-hour active user number of 3.1k, a 24-hour change of -6.11%; a financial application MakerDAO has a 24-hour active user number of 2.1k, a 24-hour change of -31.87%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC received short-term support at $54. After the rebound, the trend was slightly weaker, paying attention to the volume and the risk.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 141.3326 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 2,549,730 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 676.69 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 6133.97 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 1131.535 million yuan. There are big differences in the market, mainly based on the net outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 176.87TH/s, which was slightly higher than the previous day and close to the low of the year. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (84,900) has rebounded from the previous day, approaching a one-month high; the number of coins destroyed in the day was 1,917,900 (historically small), close to the low of the month.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

As the market continues to fall, EOS once again came to $3.00, the trend is weak, beware of the risk of heavy volume break.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 61,640,200 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 3,343,700 yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 13.85 million yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow of 938.60 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 81.520 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp dropped significantly. The number of 24-hour users of the game EOS Dynasty was 941, which was -33.17% compared with yesterday. The number of active users of Newdex's 24-hour mobile application was 808, which was -17.47% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average. If the position is not heavy, it can be bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Weak rebound and wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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