QKL123 Quote Analysis | Bakkt will push Bitcoin options, CFTC or quasi-Ethereum futures (1011)

Abstract: At present, the main control panel is strong, and the news is good and bad, and the market is uncertain. Just after the market staged a long and short double burst, there may be a rebound after a short-term downside.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 11, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,627.759 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +0.17%, the total turnover was 432.933 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -11.23%. Market activity has decreased. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC had the largest increase in 24 hours (+1.43%), and XLM had the largest decline in 24 hours (-2.13%). The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12054.34 points, a 24-hour rise and fall of +0.79%, reflecting a slight rebound in the broader market.

The Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 94.69 points, up or down +2.00% in 24 hours, indicating that the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market continued to be strong; the Alternative sentiment index was 39, which was higher than yesterday (41), and the market sentiment was still fearful. . USDT has risen and fallen to -0.22% for 24 hours. Today's net inflow of funds was 37,610,320 yuan, which was higher than yesterday. ChaiNext USDT's over-the-counter discount index was reported at 100.28, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.25%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 86) has decreased from the previous value (peak 99), which is close to the median of a month. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (51), South Africa (42), Switzerland (39), Germany (38), Austria (37) and Brazil (36). In the related query words, bakkt was once again on the list, and its search volume increased by 60%. In the past day, the global Ethereum Google search relative value (peak 70) has dropped from the previous value (peak 79), close to a one-month low, in the relevant query words, cftc (American Commodity Futures Trading Commission abbreviated) search volume ( Soaring) ranked first.

Analyst's point of view:

According to sources at the Intercontinental Exchange, Bakkt is planning to launch another derivative related to Bitcoin, and wants to compete in the Bitcoin options business with CME, and hopes to take the opportunity to beat the opponent. On the 20th of last month, CME announced that it will launch Bitcoin options in the first quarter of next year and is currently awaiting regulatory review. Compared to futures, options offer additional flexibility (such as price and expiration options), which helps users to better implement strategies or hedge against volatility risks. Can Bakkt give a hit before the CME, or just for hype? let us wait and see!

Yesterday, the news of Ethereum was good. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Tarbert said at the Yahoo Finance Market Summit: ETH is a commodity and therefore belongs to the jurisdiction of the CFTC, and it is expected that the CFTC will allow ETH derivatives to be in the US market. transaction. If ETH futures are confirmed, this will be a major positive for ETH, which may trigger a new round of mad cow market, but at least it needs to see whether ETH can successfully transition to ETH 2.0.

The other two reports: Yesterday, British Prime Minister Johnson and the Irish Prime Minister held a "positive" meeting; China and the United States will start a new round of high-level economic and trade consultations today. The market has already expected: the possibility of the conclusion of the Brexit agreement at the end of the month will increase, and the Sino-US trade negotiations will reach a partial trade agreement; yesterday, the asset price response is obvious, the risk assets such as US stocks closed up, and the safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold were short. It is weak.

First, the spot BTC market

At 13:00 today, BTC put the needle up to 8780 US dollars and then the volume dropped rapidly. The lowest touch reached 8360 US dollars. It has not yet fallen below the 5-day moving average, and there is a possibility of rebounding in a short time.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 299,153,000 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 30.825 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 49.307 million yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Inflow of 78.17 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 146.73 million yuan. There is a divergence in the market, and the net inflow of funds has reversed, with a large net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 90.77EH/s, which was lower than the previous day (98.36EH/s), which was close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 591,300, compared with the previous day ( 70.01 million) decreased, lower than the one-month average; the trading volume on the chain was 669,900, which was lower than the previous day (88.84 million), lower than the median value of one month; the number of coins destroyed was 3.167 million (lower historical value) ), a slight increase from the previous day (328.33 million), the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Today, ETH hit a high of 196 US dollars and then made a small amount of downward movement. It is now near the low of the previous day. The ETH/BTC trade is pin-up upwards. It is also returning to the low of the previous day. The short-term performance has turned weak.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 12.689 million yuan. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 32.722 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 40.859 million yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 189.227 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 210.05.40 million. There are big differences in the market, mainly based on the net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp dropped significantly. Financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 3.6k, 24-hour change -21.93%; game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 3k, 24 hours change +10.12%; trading application ForkDelta's 24-hour active users 365, 24-hour change -10.54%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC and ETH behave similarly, LTC/BTC trading is downward pin, short-term linkage is dominant.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 40,897,500 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 4,437,500 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 516.38 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 39.7474 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 8.7785 million yuan. There is a big difference in the market, with a net outflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 293.82TH/s, which was slightly higher than yesterday (286.74TH/s), which was close to the low of six months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power will decline and it will take some time to recover. However, if the continuous innovation is low, there is a risk of stamping. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (52,500) decreased from the previous day (62,500), which was close to a one-month low; the transaction volume on the LTC chain (137.78 million) decreased from the previous day (199.56 million), close to the monthly low. The number of currency days destroyed (25,462,100, the historically small value) was significantly lower than the previous day (400.584 million), and the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

The EOS/BTC transaction has a downward pin and has a heavy volume. The short-term performance is weakened and the shock is adjusted.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 219,900 yuan. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net flow of 13.6712 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 31.42 million yuan, between the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 27.1741 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 451.419 million yuan. There was a big divergence in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 3k, which is -4.75% compared with yesterday; the trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users is 1.5k, which is -8.77% compared with yesterday; the quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users is 1.2k, compared with yesterday. The change was -13.69%; the number of 24-hour active users of the data application Lumeos was 1.2k, which was -0.68% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS faucet EOS is close to the low of the year and can be configured separately.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to make a short-term bottom-up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Not yet out of the bottom section, wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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