QKL123 Quote Analysis | Black Swan Event, Helping Bitcoin Quotes (0916)

Abstract: On September 14, the global black swan event appeared, and gold and bitcoin responded slightly. Recently, the performance of the altcoin currency is strong, and the possibility of Bitcoin continuing to drop further is further reduced. It is likely to usher in a rising market in the near future.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 16, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 19,046.98 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +0.68%, the total turnover was 314.995 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -10.34%. The market activity is significantly reduced. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13792.74 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall of +0.58%; the Alternative sentiment index was 38, which was the same as yesterday (38), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), ETH had the largest increase in 24 hours (+3.80%), and BNB had the largest decline in 24 hours (-0.32%). BTC rose by -0.04% in 24 hours, market share (67.74%) was slightly lower than yesterday, and market risk aversion was slightly lower. USDT's 24-hour ups and downs were +0.22%. Today's net inflow of funds was 31,114,580 yuan, which was higher than yesterday. ChaiNext USDT's over-the-counter discount index was 99.51, which was up to -0.14% in 24 hours.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 97) has increased from yesterday (peak 90), higher than the seven-day average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (53), South Africa (50), Brazil (45), Austria (43), Germany (40) and Switzerland (40). In the past seven days, the average value of Bitcoin's Baidu search index dropped by 18% from the previous seven days, but increased by 32% compared with the same period last year.

Analyst's point of view:

The biggest black swan event this year: around 4:00 am on September 14, the two oil bases in Saudi Arabia, the world's most important oil exporting country, were attacked. The current recovery of production is still unknown. It is estimated that Saudi Arabia’s daily supply of crude oil and natural gas will reduce its total production by 50%, with a reduced oil supply equivalent to 5% of the global daily oil supply.

Possible impacts of the incident: First, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is further strained. If the conflict cannot be effectively alleviated, local wars are likely to occur. Second, oil prices will rise rapidly in a short period of time. If there is a sustained rise in expectations, the current The global economic situation is no different. On the day of the incident, Bitcoin and gold fell for a short period of time and gained a small recovery.

First, the spot BTC market

From the four-hour K-line, the recent BTC tends to converge downward along the upper edge of the convergence triangle. The high probability is affected by the Saudi attack on September 14th. The short-term downtrend has not continued and the performance is stronger than expected. Recently, the possibility of breaking through the convergence range has increased.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net inflow of funds today was 82,218,700 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 25,759,670 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 152.58 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 25,341.80 yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 15,866.30 yuan. The market is dominated by oversized singles and medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 84.70EH/s, which was slightly lower than the previous day (87.49EH/s), which was close to the historical high. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 554,800, compared with the previous day (65.90). 10,000) has decreased, approaching a one-month low. The number of currency days destroyed yesterday was 4,670,500 (the historical median), which was significantly higher than the previous day (3,225,200), but the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Recently, ETH's offensive was strong. The previous day's small-scale heavy volume broke through 180 US dollars and continued to attack. It hit a high of 195 US dollars this morning. The relative price of ETH's BTC has risen rapidly after the downward insertion of 0.0170 BTC on the previous day. It is now approaching the previous month's high of 0.0190 BTC, which is a short-term performance, but there is a certain callback demand.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was 154,381,800 yuan, an increase from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 18974.19 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 39.388 million yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow was 49.358 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 334.09 million yuan. There are differences in the market, and most of them are built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased, adding 5 DApps. Among them, the financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 3.5k, 24 hours change +13.38%; game application My Crypto Heroes 24-hour active users 2.2k, 24 hours change + 16.67%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users The number 400, 24 hours change +14.29%.

Third, the spot LTC market

After the previous day, LTC attacked 70 US dollars and then retreated, and continued to attack to 72 US dollars today, but did not break the previous day's high of 73 US dollars. The LTC/BTC trading pair has been up, currently oscillating around 0.0069BTC, which is slightly stronger than the BTC performance.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 127,754,400 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 5,500,600 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 7194.49 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 3127.70 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 78.11 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with large orders and small orders being mostly reduced.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 307.68TH/s, which was lower than yesterday (329.17TH/s), which was close to a one-month low. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power decreased. It may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (6.8689 million, historically small), compared with the previous day (636.656 billion), the long-term trend has not been destroyed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 82,100, close to a one-month average.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS quickly stood at $3.9 from the previous day's $3.6, and it was short-lived. It is now oscillating around $4.1. The EOS/BTC transaction continued to oscillate around the 0.00040 BTC, and it was strong in short-term contraction.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 22,124,700 yuan, a decrease from yesterday. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 13.9495 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 24.44 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 23.676 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 7.4497 million yuan. There are differences in the market, and most of them are built with large orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has increased, adding 2 DApps. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of Dice application is 9.3k, which is +14.00% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour users of game PROSPECTORS is 2.9k, which is +91.10% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of data application Lumeos is 1.5k. Compared with yesterday's change +0.14%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.4k, compared with yesterday's change -1.96%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

In the near term, the market is expected to step out of the upward trend.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

In a short period of time, BTC or LTC small positions are mainly bargain-hunting, and ETH or EOS small positions are mainly high-low and low-sucking.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

4. Google search trends

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

5. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

6. Coin-day destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

7. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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