QKL123 Quotes | The main upside is suppressed, and the short-term downside risk is increased (0708)

Abstract: BTC and ETH are short-term upwards, and multiple military forces are temporarily suppressed, and the risk of short-term downsides has increased. From the perspective of historical comprehensive performance, the long-term uptrend of BTC has not changed; in the short term, the downside risks of BTC and ETH still exist, and tend to adjust with time for space fluctuations.


According to QKL123 statistics, on July 8, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 2,187.059 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased to +1.53%, and the total turnover of 24 hours was 294.406 billion yuan. For -15.38%, market activity has decreased. The market value of BTC and ETH accounted for 61.94% and 9.88%, respectively, and the market risk aversion still exists.

At 10 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), TRX has the largest increase in 24 hours (+7.25%), followed by ETH (+4.88%), and the net inflows of the two funds today are +67 million yuan, +6.96 100 million yuan; BTC 24 hours rise and fall is +1.15%, today's net capital inflow is +576 million yuan; LTC 24 hours up or down +0.62%, today's net capital inflow is -0.31 billion; EOS 24 hours up and down The figure was +1.75%, and the net inflow of funds today was +17.30 million yuan. The 24-hour rise and fall of the USDT was -0.29%. Today's net inflow of funds was +2.83 billion, and the 24-hour turnover rate was 3.82%. The inflow of off-exchange funds increased compared with yesterday.


Today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 17,717.91 points, 24 hours up and down to +2.10%; alternative.me sentiment index was 67, compared with yesterday (72), but the market is still greedy. Yesterday, Bitcoin's Baidu search index was 38,598 points, which continued to decline compared with the previous day (57,060), but still higher than the average of the month. At present, Bitcoin's Google search trend is slightly lower than yesterday, but still higher than the same period last month.

Analyst's point of view: The overall market enthusiasm continues to decrease, the market greed continues to decline, and downside risks remain, and the possibility of continued shocks is greater.

First, the spot BTC market


24H highest: ¥80315.51 24H minimum: ¥79074.95

Since the opening of a new round of bull market in April this year, the market has shown a rapid upward trend. However, the market is full of uncertainty. After a short period of madness, it will inevitably bring a big correction. In the short term, it may test the support level of US$9,600 again. It may even test the strong support of US$9,200. Here are two possible scenarios: First, The market tried to break through for a short time, and the breakthrough failed. After that, it fell to a low of around $9,600 and stabilized at around $10,000. First, it oscillated for a short period of time and then broke the low of $9,600 to test strong support. At $9,200, the rebound stabilized. The process is often complex, the results are often simple, and the exchange of time and space continues, and the above arguments need to be continued.

The BTC fluctuated from $11,200 at 16 o'clock yesterday to around $11,500. The amount was relatively limited and oscillated for a short period of time. The 24-hour trading volume is mainly concentrated between $11,300 and $11,500. The amount of the downside can be gradually reduced, and the multi-military forces are temporarily suppressed.

Fund face


Yesterday, the net outflow of BTC funds was -1.071 billion yuan, which was reversed from the previous day's net inflow (-13.88), and today's net inflow is positive (+571 million yuan). Among them, the 24-hour large single (not less than 300,000 yuan) net inflow + 426.89 million yuan, the medium single (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net inflow +1,4.8 million yuan, small orders (less than 50,000 yuan) net Inflow +12.06 million yuan. The market's main willingness to open positions has risen.


The number of BTC's currency destruction yesterday was 3,854,400, which was higher than the previous day (2,372,400). It was close to the low value of three months. The giant whale has no off-market selling action in the near future, and the long-term uptrend has not been destroyed. The daily currency destruction numbers here are divided into four categories: greater than or equal to 100 million for maximum values ​​(high probability and large amount of selling), historical days for about 0.3%; 50 to 100 million for larger Value (large probability of large-scale selling), the number of days is about 0.8%; the value of 10 to 50 million is the median (normal in the case of non-mass concentration), the historical days are about 17%; less than or equal to 10 million For smaller values ​​(normal), historical days account for approximately 81.9%.

2. Fundamentals

6 Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 297 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 65.94EH/s, which is higher than yesterday (62.22EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the BTC chain increased to 584,600, which was significantly lower than the previous day (80.74 million), lower than the same period last month. BTC's valuation relative indicator MVRV has increased with the price increase, currently around 2.18, short-term downside risks still exist.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to hold or lighten up and wait and see. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market may come in the next one to two years. It can be priced at around 10,000 US dollars or about 12,000 US dollars. After adding a position.

Short-term (January-March): Short-term shock adjustment, the downside risk has increased, but the downside is limited, and it can be added when the oversold bargains or the volume breaks.

Short-term (1-3 days): At present, the uncertainty is increasing, and the amount of energy can be changed. Resistance is $12,000, support is $11,000, target is $11,500, stop loss is $9,800, and take profit is $12,000.


Second, the spot ETH market

8 24H highest: ¥2151.63 24H minimum: ¥1996.07

At 18 o'clock yesterday, after ETH's small-volume volatility surged, it again tempted the resistance of 310 dollars, but the multi-military was blocked by the air force, then slowly descended, and the short-term downside risk was greater. The 24-hour trading volume is mainly concentrated between 290-300 US dollars. The strength and quantity of the empty side can be gradually reduced. The short-term market uncertainty will increase and the opportunity will move.

Fund face


As of 13:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was + 829 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday's net inflow (+580 million yuan). Among them, the large inflow (not less than 300,000 yuan) net inflow is +17.81 million yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow +38.47 million yuan, the small instinct (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow + 26,624 million yuan, the market willing to increase positions will increase.


At 00 o'clock today, the ETH/BTC transaction rose to a high volume from 0.02585 BTC to 0.02708 BTC. However, after the shock surged, it was curbed by the Air Force, and there was a downward trend in the short-term. At present, although BTC has signs of stabilization, there is a certain downside in the short term. ETH needs to continue to be relatively strong after the BTC is fully adjusted.

2. Fundamentals


Currently, the top ten ETH DApp activity levels have declined overall compared to previous days. Among them, the number of active users of the trading platform IDEX (1,021) was slightly lower than yesterday (1,028), and the total flow of pledges by DAI (1,192 ETH) decreased by -0.13% compared with yesterday. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the ETH chain was 370,300, a significant decline from the previous day (504,400), slightly lower than the same period last month.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to hold or lighten up. The smart contract platform ETH 2.0 project is in the process of advancement, and it is expected to step out of the independent market in the future.

Short-term (January-March): In the short-term continuous shock adjustment, you can increase the position near the support level and lighten up the position near the resistance level.

Short-term (1-3 days): If you do not effectively fall below the support level, you can do more on the bargain-hunting. Resistance is $310, support is $290, target is $300, stop loss is $280, and take profit is $310.

11 Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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