Wuzhen How to dominate the transaction? Five senior investors explain the trend of blockchain investment in 2020

On November 9th, at the “2019 World Blockchain Conference·Wuzhen” Summit hosted by Babbitt, Yang Jinyan, General Manager of Firecoin Labs, Tiffany, Chief Commercial Officer of BitZ, Chairman and CEO of Actoz Soft, Guo Haibin, Coinage Machine (BBJ) Co-founder Huang Junpeng (Eagle), the founder of the wooden house capital, Huang Haiguang, and the host of Babbitt's "8 Questions", Jia Xiaobei, launched a roundtable discussion on investment trends in 2020. Whether it is a primary market or a secondary market investment, they have published a wonderful view.

The following content is from the round table and is organized by Babbitt.

Jia Xiaobe: What is the difference between traditional investment and blockchain investment?

Huang Haiguang:

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Blockchain and investment in the primary and secondary markets of traditional industries are distinct.

In the primary market, both are conceptual markets. The traditional VC market will focus on business models, team size, historical revenue data, etc., and hope to control investment risks with accurate data. But blockchain investment has no controllability, and more is a pure concept . Traditional VCs have benchmarks in the primary market. For example, in the O2O field, the standard group can be used, and the blockchain cannot be benchmarked.

In the secondary market, traditional investments have two main arbitrage. The first is industrial arbitrage, looking at the development trend and situation of the industry. The second is trading arbitrage. The blockchain has only one arbitrage, trading and data arbitrage. Industry arbitrage is rare.

In the blockchain industry, whoever has the data and information will have an advantage. The data held by the exchange is far above the average investor, and the industry compliance is incomplete. Sometimes the exchange will become the opposite of ordinary investors.

Eagle:

The biggest problem in this industry is that the second level is too close to the first level. It turned out that a company succeeded in IPO and we said it was a good company. But the blockchain industry is getting money too quickly, causing its value judgment criteria to change. The standard of a good company has become a good management and community. It is a dimension that has nothing to do with the company itself. I find it difficult to tell what is really valuable here.

▲BitZ Chief Commercial Officer Tiffany

Tiffany:

I have a little habit to share with you: about half a year will build a high-risk position – gambling warehouse. If there is a loss, the impact will not be great. If there is a profit, there is a high probability that the rate of return will increase exponentially. Everyone enters the industry to be a leek, sum up lessons and then start making money.

The investment itself is still based on stability, and we cannot think about getting rich overnight. Do not participate or participate in areas that you don't understand or don't understand. When the industry is crazy, you should stay calm and awake. When the industry is pessimistic and depressed, it is full of confidence to mine undervalued projects.

▲Yang Jinyan, General Manager of Fire Coins Labs (first right)

Yang Jinyan:

The blockchain is agriculture. When the market comes, everyone makes money. When the market goes, everyone does not make money. The day-to-day meal is particularly obvious.

The biggest difference between the digital assets we hold and the stocks is that we have 100% ownership of the tokens. The result is that it is particularly easy to change the same asset for a platform, but 360 is particularly hard to come back from the US, which is the biggest advantage of blockchain technology in asset circulation.

In 2018, everyone's investment income was very bleak because we were in the midst of the “agricultural” cycle. I remind you that the risk of entering the blockchain market is indeed quite large.

Jia Xiaobe: The investment theme has been changing for the past ten years. This year is the platform currency. What is the investment logic behind this?

▲ Huang Haiguang, founder of Chalet Capital

Huang Haiguang:

As far as the financial bottom-line format is concerned, it is the same in the traditional investment and blockchain fields. I personally divide into two categories: the first category is the transaction layer, and the second category is the distribution layer.

The core indicator of the trading layer is called liquidity. You find that if there are some asset tools and infrastructure that contribute to liquidity, such as stable coins, we will pay attention. Or it is very low from the core liquidity indicators and can benefit from liquidity. The platform currency has on-the-spot liquidity relative to the periphery, and we will pay attention to it.

At the issue level, when assets reach a certain volume, external liquidity is absorbed by the assets. Like a sponge, the issue layer is a solution to systematically solve the past liquidity of assets. This solution may be a policy solution. It may be a technical solution, which will be manifested in the asset layer, some assets or some basic tools, we will also pay attention to this track, because it solves the problem of the liquidity of the system in the system.

Only these two forms have formed the theme of today's conference, called the industrial layer. The core of the industrial layer is the application, and the application is to solve the needs of people. Blockchain assets have circulation and hosting needs, and the wallet can solve this demand. Trading, distribution, and industry, this is a line. The blockchain has developed from this line to the present. Nowadays, many tracks are becoming more vertical and subdivided. This is a precursor to the development of the industry. This is our internal investment. tend.

▲Actoz Soft Chairman and CEO Guo Haibin

Guo Haibin:

From the perspective of the industry as a whole, I don't think it is necessary to look at so many currencies. BTC is OK. However, from the perspective of industry ecology, all the major institutions came in last year, causing the three major exchanges to go up and the ecology is unhealthy. Once the organization has no money, it will not come when the retail investors are pulled in again. Last year, 80% fell.

This year, there are platform coins, even XX coins, which pull the industry up. Before October 24, it was difficult for everyone to see hope without these two things.

I feel that everyone in the room has a common sermon and will do a lot of application to create a good environment and atmosphere. I think it will be a very good start after 2020.

Jia Xiaobe: The investment track of the blockchain can be divided into ecological services, enterprise services and blockchain projects. What are the advantages and dilemmas of the current investment in these three circuits?

Tiffany:

I make a metaphor. If the industry is a highway, I think the ecological project is the highway itself. The enterprise service category project is next to the supporting facilities. The blockchain native project is a vehicle that travels at high speed on the road.

Eco-projects have wallets. The difficulty in investing is that the initial investment is large, and the return and profit cycle are very long. A value model that can run through is difficult to design, and it is difficult to get income from early projects. If the industry develops to achieve scale, it will still be able to generate revenue.

Enterprise service projects are like water-selling tracks. The difficulty is that it is difficult to say where the ceiling is, and it is difficult to scale and standardize. Its obvious advantage is that it is better to do wind control.

Blockchain original project investment is a relatively high-tech investment, and its advantage is probability theory or race theory. If you aim at an industry trend, you can always invest in a good project. The difficulty is that it is difficult to verify whether the value model is reasonable in the early stage of the project, and there will be an overestimation or loss risk.

Overall, no matter which track is closely related to the development of the industry, this is why everyone is excited after the new policy is introduced.

Jia Xiaobe: How do you see the trend and investment opportunities of the industry encouraged by the state? Is the exchange now worthwhile?

▲ coin machine (BBJ) co-founder Huang Junpeng (Eagle)

Eagle:

This industry's secondary liquidity is too easy to obtain. Generally speaking, the assets that can be listed must be strictly tested assets. For example, there are only 3,000 A-share listed companies, and it has a long-term process of shaping corporate value and obtaining recognition.

The blockchain field prematurely forms an illusion, the assets are very good, and it gives you a very large imagination, essentially not completing this thing (verified).

For example, the game, the game itself is a life of nine deaths, it will not become a good game because of the concept of blockchain. But because it immediately became a asset that seemed to make money when it was put on the blockchain, it was a bad illusion.

The core is still applied, and this process still takes a long time to accumulate. It naturally needs to solve many problems before it can solve practical commercial problems.

Drawing on the development of mutual gold in the past five years, I believe that a number of high-quality blockchain enterprises will be produced in the future, which will produce good applications. But there will be mud and sand, and there are many traps.

At present, the entire industry has not yet mature custody, and there are no high-quality rating agencies, so the exchange is still at an early stage. I think that if you can better develop the incremental market and are willing to go to the hard bones, this exchange is still worth investing.

Jia Xiaobe: What are the development trends of digital currency investment in the future, and what changes will happen to the regulatory side?

Yang Jinyan:

The next wave of investment has a very important trend – mainstream currency, we will focus on this one. The first reason is that the market determines, and the second is the mainstream institutions.

In the primary market, we will choose projects with major technological innovations, but we need long-term holding and long-term training.

In addition, application projects are more financial applications, and financial applications will rise more.

In addition, we will look at large-scale chain modification projects, which originally had certain value and user application scenarios.

From the speech that day to the introduction of the real policy, this process is personally defined as a transition period. We must be very cautious when the transitional policy is not clear. This period of time since 94 is called the grayscale supervision period, and there is a lot of regulatory arbitrage space. After this period of time, we must be vigilant and must be legally and compliant, which is at home.

In foreign countries, the global regulatory structure has basically been established from 2017 to 2018. There are two main lines of supervision and integration. The blockchain technology is encouraged globally, but the blockchain finance or virtual assets are included in the traditional financial supervision. Inside.

Here are three more lines:

First, to incorporate the traditional banking law supervision system. For example, for Libar, US regulation is focused on “three counter-revolutions”: anti-money laundering, anti-financing, and anti-wMD weapons financing. Second, the financing of the currency is included in the securities law. Third, it is included in the supervision of the "Commodity Law" system, and most of the tokens are recognized as commodities, which can be bought and sold freely. Hong Kong has also recently issued a regulatory policy, and if it is a security, it manages it. If it is a commodity, the SFC can't manage it. Some of the commodities are securities futures, and if they are exchanges such as futures, they still have to be supervised.

Jia Xiaobe: Time relationship, finally, please 1 minute per person to describe the most optimistic direction in the future.

Yang Jinyan: I am still very optimistic about DeFi.

Tiffany: Decentralized trading.

Guo Haibin: I am optimistic about the direction of compliance with compliance and digital banking.

Eagle: I am excited about what I am doing now, so that more people have Bitcoin.

Huang Haiguang: A considerable part of the concept of digital finance is digital assets. In digital assets, we predict that a large part of digital securities will be in the next 3-5 years. This track is currently equivalent to the blockchain ecology of 2014, so in the next 3-5 years, digital securities will generate a lot of good assets and investment targets.

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