Babbitt column | Libra is coming, what kind of storm will the stable currency market set off?

preface

On June 18, 2019, Facebook published a white paper on stable currency, which triggered heated discussions among countries around the world, including the world's central banks, financial institutions, and practitioners. But we have already predicted in the original article that the article in early June 2019, "Tiger is coming", said that there will be a big shock this time. This big shock finally came after the Facebook white paper was released!

As early as 2016, when the Bank of England proposed the concept of digital currency (CBDC), it predicted that it would change the existing banking system and financial system [9]. At that time, many central bankers were extremely excited, and it was difficult to meet a hundred years in their lifetime. The major currency reforms (in 320 years, because the world's first central bank, the Bank of England was established in 1694). In May 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposed that the stable currency supported by the government or the central bank is the digital legal currency, indicating that the stable currency supported by the US government issued by IBM in July 2018 is the digital legal currency (digital dollar), officially opened. A new chapter in the history of human finance. This also shows that the stable currency is the assistant of the national currency, not the enemy (unlike the digital token is the opponent of the legal currency), the state should actively develop stable currency.

When the Facebook white paper appeared, many people realized that the stable currency is the digital legal currency, which is closely related to the national currency and financial system. The central bank, commercial banks and market structure will all be changed. This is beyond the imagination of many people, because national monetary policy, foreign exchange, international trade, and international business competitiveness will also be affected. National legal currency is the foundation of the country and the pillar of national finance. Facebook’s size and preparedness have stunned the far-reaching impact.

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After Facebook caused a shock, banks at home and abroad came to discuss the impact of this incident, and some were already very anxious. Because many people think that digital tokens do not flow into the stream, the orthodox financial market does not need to be considered. They forget that when the foreign regular army uses the same technology to develop digital legal coins, it is the time when the financial market is washed up. Now it is the right time!

But we don't have to worry, because knowing the problem is the beginning of solving the problem, and we also have a solution. First of all, it is to develop a technology that can really land, instead of developing the so-called "white paper technology" (only white papers, there is no actual content), and a major change in the way of thinking, because this change is based on technology. Plus the financial layout. In fact, Facebook claims to be able to serve 1 billion customers, so it is because of technology leadership, its technology is not "white paper technology" can be compared. According to the analysis of the Taishan Sandbox big data version of the Tianmen (Qingdao) International Sandbox Research Institute, the Facebook stable currency code does not intersect with any blockchain system in the past, indicating that Facebook technology is original and does not use the code of the centralized superbook.

First, the definition, background and development of stable currency

Stablecoin is also a cryptocurrency, but its purpose is to maximize price fluctuations. A variety of stable coins have emerged to achieve stability through various mechanisms (such as by anchoring fiat money or commodities or using sophisticated algorithms). Therefore, stable currency is essentially different from other cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. The price of other cryptocurrencies basically depends on the value of its own blockchain technology and the confidence and valuation of market investors. The instability and volatility of cryptocurrencies is one of the most important reasons that many institutions and individuals cannot accept, and this is the reason why stable coins appear. The price of digital tokens has been fluctuating, but the price of stable currencies should be stable. According to the current standard of financial markets, stable currencies are equivalent to cash, while digital tokens correspond to stocks, as shown in the following table. The stable currency can be regarded as the “parking lot” of the digital token, as an intermediary for buying and selling digital tokens, so that the investor's funds can always be placed on the cryptocurrency without returning to the legal currency. In theory, these stable coins need to be supported by legal currency or equivalent (such as gold), so that the stable currency project is like a commercial bank.

The profit model of stable currency is based on trading (see section 4 for other profit methods), rather than relying on currency value, so the more transactions, the more profitable the project side.

However, in fact, many of the so-called stable currencies that appeared in the early days were not stable, and the prices fluctuated drastically in one day, which was therefore questioned as “fake stable coins”. There are also stable currency project parties that arbitrage through the sale and purchase of stable coins, which harms the interests of investors.

There is still a huge difference between stable currency and bank cash. Because stable currency is a cryptocurrency, it can be cross-border payment without SWIFT. Compared with the traditional banking system, it is fast and simple. The cross-border payment ability of stable currency greatly exceeds that of traditional banks. It can be traded at any time without having to queue in the bank. This function is gradually recognized by people. The cross-border payment of traditional banks is severely challenged. Therefore, many banks in the world in 2018-2019 also Start issuing legally stable stable coins.

USDT is the first stable currency:

The USDT issued by Tether is the earliest “stabilized currency” in this market. It was already traded on the exchange in February 2015 and has almost no competitors for more than two years. However, due to the smooth passage of the legal currency, user habits, etc., the trading volume of USDT has been unremarkable, and its daily trading volume never even exceeded $4 million before 17 years. The September 4th event in September 2017 brought an opportunity for the rise of USDT. As the legal currency channel was banned, the USDT trading zone was launched on major exchanges with the BTC and ETH trading zones. With the skyrocketing cryptocurrency market at the end of the year, USDT's daily trading volume reached a maximum of $6.3 billion. By the end of October 2018, the average daily trading volume was still around $2 billion.

However, according to repeated reports from foreign media, USDT does not disclose the books, and the funds behind it are likely to be fake (because the project parties did not provide evidence to prove the existence of these funds), at least not enough legal currency support, and the price instability, now abroad The prosecutor is investigating his project. Due to the unstable price of USDT, it is a fake stable currency. According to foreign media reports, between 2017 and 2018, the digital tokens rose sharply, which was caused by USDT's intentional over-counterfeit stable currency. This is equivalent to the USDT's “nothing to make” manufacturing currency without the support of legal currency, and there is no government regulation, so that the digital tokens are unreasonably soaring. Foreign regulators have determined that this is a serious fraud.

GUSD/PAX is the first compliance currency:

In September 2018, the New York Financial Services Department (NYDFS) approved the first compliance stables, GUSD and PAX. Because of the dramatic price volatility of digital currencies, which hinders its use as a medium of measurement and a tool for value (two of the three major currency functions), storage and hedging functions are not well realized (so digital currency is defined in many countries as Assets, not currencies). The rise of ST (digital stocks), bitcoin and the bear market in Ethereum have allowed the market to gradually realize that the stable currency with real monetary functions is an important infrastructure for the market, setting off a stable currency.

Beginning in 2018, major institutions, including financial institutions and technology companies, have joined the tide of issuing stable currencies.

Stable currency supported by the first country:

In July 2018, IBM and the San Francisco-based startup Stronghold jointly issued a stable currency that was underwritten by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and linked to the US dollar. This is a stable currency supported by the US government, which means that the financial revolution of the blockchain is officially coming. In fact, in August 2018, IBM directly indicated that they were issuing "digital currency" (CBDC) or "digital dollar."

This matter is significant because it is a legally compliant stable currency issued by non-central banks, non-bank institutions, and is guaranteed by the US government FDIC.

Stable currency issued by the bank:

On February 15, 2019, JPMorgan Chase Bank also issued stable currency, becoming the first commercial bank in the world to issue stable coins. And IBM and JP Morgan Chase both make cross-border payments.

On June 5, 2019, 14 banks including Switzerland, Canada, the United States, Japan, and Spain, led by Barclays Bank of the United Kingdom, also launched Utility Settlement Coins (USC) for settlement. The 14 banks together issued digital Canadian dollars, euros, pounds, Japanese yen and US dollars.

The most imaginative stable currency:

On June 18, 2019, Facebook issued the stable currency "Libra", Libra anchored a "basket of currencies" composed of multinational currency, whose mission is to establish a simple, borderless currency and billions of people. The financial infrastructure of the service is trying to establish a digital payment system around the world. Because of its global platform network, it can promote the application of stable currency to nearly 2.4 billion terminal active users and their ecological scenes distributed around the world, which is the most embarrassing.

Second, the classification of stable coins

Stabilized coins can be classified according to collateral, intermediaries, compliance, stability mechanisms, profitability, etc.:

(1) Mortgage of legal currency and physical assets: central trust and centralized distribution. The simplest, but there are all the problems of the existing currency issuance system, such as too concentrated, too dependent on the integrity of the issuer and the traditional banking system, so that it can not achieve good operation. Representatives are USDT and TUSD.

(II) Mortgage of digital assets on the chain: multi-centered, mortgage-issued assets on the chain. The advantage is that it is not concentrated in one central institution. However, due to the high volatility of the price of digital asset collateral, the stable currency that is used as a guarantee may require over-guarantee. Representatives have DAI and BTS.

(3) Unsecured issuance: The value of the stable currency is maintained through a system, such as an algorithm based to adjust the supply of stable coins, which is more in line with the initial principle of bitcoin, and does not depend on the central authority or a trusted issuer. But it is still immature and is still in the process of algorithm exploration, because sometimes intuitive and simple algorithms may hide fatal design flaws. Representative: BASIS, CARBON.

Third, the role of stable currency

The importance of stabilizing coins as a blockchain infrastructure is becoming increasingly prominent.

(1) In the field of finance and trading :

Store of Value: Acting as a safe-haven asset is the initial vision of the creation of a stable currency to avoid market downside risks. In the case of a sharp decline in market conditions, the exchange of funds for stable currency can avoid the risk of market downturn.

Medium of Exchange: Stabilizing coins can be used as entry and exit channels for Bitcoin and French currency, especially as a strong regulatory environment.

Measure of value: It acts as a cryptocurrency volatility and cannot fulfill the pricing function for other assets. The stable currency of the rivet coin can be used to price physical assets and virtual assets.

Pegged Lending: Stabilizing coins can solve short-term liquidity problems. Users can exchange their tokens for stable coins and change them to the required currency at any time.

Inclusive Finance: Stabilizing coins can introduce relatively stable value stores, such as dollars or gold, to those users who are only exposed to local currency that is easily depreciated or have no bank account. It is especially valuable for people with hyperinflation, countries with unstable monetary systems, and regions lacking financial services.

(2) Commercial circulation :

Global cross-border payments: Take advantage of blockchain technology to bypass SWIFT for global cross-border payments, reduce costs, increase efficiency, reduce risk, and limit time and space.

(3) National policy areas :

Alternative way of issuing additional currency: the increase in legal currency through stable currency, the depreciation of the French currency, in order to reduce repayments and depreciate the foreign exchange reserves of other countries, and transfer debt to the world.

Supporting national economic activities: Stabilizing coins can have interest policies. For example, the Bank of England proposes that its digital legal currency interest is negative to support national economic activities. Recently, there have also been stable currency proposals for positive interest rates.

Shocking the currency system of other countries: Due to the borderless nature of digital currency, the use of stable currency to enter other countries' markets can control trading information in a timely manner.

In terms of value definition, stable currency is more suitable as "Anchoring Coin".

From the perspective of the function of value logic in the chain of communication, the stable currency should be called “bridge coin”.

Fourth, the stable mode of profit

Many people are skeptical about the profitability of the stable currency, because the price of the stable currency remains the same and cannot be profited by price fluctuations. But the stable currency is not a stock, it is a currency in the UK, and the currency is regulated by the “currency law”. Money is profitable through circulation and trading, so the more participants, the more profitable. The profit model of stable currency currently has the following three main directions:

1. Charge transaction fees, although this is usually very low, but because of the large amount, there is still a lot of profit;

2. Accept the merchant rebate, which can be a very large part of the income;

3. Make investments, including loans, real estate, etc.

When the stable currency carries out the first and second transactions, the stable currency project party becomes the “transaction bank”, but when the stable currency conducts the third transaction, the stable currency becomes the traditional bank. And these all have a competitive relationship with commercial banks. If most of the country’s transactions are replaced by stable currencies, the economic structure changes.

V. The impact of stable currency

On September 30, 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave a shocking speech at the Bank of England. In that speech, the IMF changed its view on blockchain and digital currency, and considered blockchain technology. And the digital currency is the future. In May 2019, the IMF issued a report that these stable coins are now the digital legal currency (CBDC), which is equivalent to the recognition of IBM in August 2018, and also means that these stable coins have the property of legal currency.

The IMF also lists the advantages of digital currency. These advantages have also been said by the Bank of England, and the Bank of England also believes that digital currency is a new tool for national monetary policy and a weapon of control. At the same time, the use of digital currency can increase the country's GDP and stimulate economic development.

Therefore, the emergence of stable currency is not only a new financial product, but also a structural change in the market. They are not digital tokens that are not welcomed by the government, but legal and compliant digital legal coins that are supported and encouraged by foreign governments!

It can be said that the stable currency is an important pioneering work in the history of the world currency. The stable currency that appeared at the beginning is fake, there is no government support, and there is no regulation, such as USDT. July 2018 was a watershed. When the first country-supplied stable currency appeared, the real stable currency was born. It is actually a digital legal currency. Because according to the IMF, if there is a corresponding legal currency in the central bank (or other custodians such as banks), the stable currency is the digital legal currency.

The stable currency is the digital legal currency. If the stable currency project party is “new digital bank”, the investment in the stable currency project must be restricted. Just like the commercial bank loan, the lender must make a lot of adjustments to ensure the stability of the currency. Assets are stable. Therefore, as the Bank of England said, digital coin innovation will require reforms in both the central bank and the bank's structure. As for how to reform, further exploration is needed. The Bank of England adopts “big central bankism” to directly dock with third-party payments without going through commercial banks, and expects to use digital currency “negative interest” policies to regulate hot money and soon return to commercial banks and the real economy, while commercial banks remain traditional Legal currency positive interest policy. The Bank of England issued a report in 2016 that proposed a “negative interest” policy would increase the UK economy by 3%. At that time, many central bank economists expressed surprise, but thought that this aspect should be strengthened.

China's current currency is divided into three levels:

Cash in circulation (M0) = sum of cash in stocks of various units outside the banking system and hand-held cash of residents

Narrow currency (M1) = M0 + current deposits of banks in enterprises, institutions, groups, troops, schools, etc.

Broad money (M2) = M1 + resident savings deposit + unit time deposit + unit other deposit + securities company customer deposit

According to the above discussion, the real stable currency should belong to the category of M0.

Here we ask a few questions:

(1) What is the main body of the stable currency account?

Without considering the changes in bank accounts, after Broadbent (2016) proposed the concept of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBD), Fan Yifei (2016) pointed out that CBDC is mainly in the category of cash (M0). According to the IMF report, stable currency is also in the category of cash (M0). However, if the impact on the bank account is taken into account, the current definition of multi-level currency (M0, M1, M2, etc.) is based on different attributes of the bank account. Once there is no bank account, the difference between these currencies will disappear. The theory of quantity of money and the theory of quantitative currency regulation based on the total amount of money will be invalidated, which will lead to the failure of the original theory of monetary policy transmission and the chain effect.

(2) Does the stable currency pay interest?

Most of the current stable currencies do not pay interest, but some stable coins that are preparing for issuance plan to pay interest. Because the stable currency project party is actually a digital bank, for digital banking, you can invest or borrow, and you can pay interest on profit. In 2016, the Bank of England proposed a negative interest rate policy for the central bank.

Different stable currencies offer different services. Therefore, there will be different kinds of stable coins in the future, such as stable coins based on real estate, stable coins based on finance, and different interest rates, and the degree of stability will be different. There will also be competition between stable currencies. High-interest stable coins will not necessarily be competitive. Stabilizing coins will be given priority to stability (maintaining value). After stabilization, high interest rates will be given priority. The central bank's digital legal currency can have negative interest or zero interest because it is the most stable.

(3) How to monitor the stability of the project party?

It is recommended that the China Banking Regulatory Commission should supervise the stable currency project party, because the stable currency project party is in fact a digital bank and should be regulated by similar banking regulatory rules.

But because stable coins run fast, regulatory technology must be highly automated and intelligent. Nowadays, traditional regulatory technologies will not be supported, and the latest regulatory technologies must be adopted, including big data, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, etc., that is, technology is used to supervise technology. In the past, legal and artificial supervision alone would be left behind in the new era.

(4) What effect will the stable currency have on commercial banks?

Since the stable currency project side is actually a commercial bank, this will have a major impact on local or overseas commercial banks. For example, Facebook does not have a banking license, but its users are more than 2 billion in the world (if related companies, more than 3 billion users), covering more than 130 countries and regions, once its digital currency is issued, it is equivalent to the establishment of A multinational digital bank (without a banking license), and because of its large user base, will be more influential than many of the world's traditional big banks.

The reason why banks are important is that they have strong assets, numerous customers, and many investment projects and stable returns. But these Facebooks can do it, and they will do better, so that traditional banks can't compete with new digital banks. The president of China Construction Bank once said that this is a big threat to traditional banks. In early June, another Chinese bank also said that the emergence of Facebook stable currency will affect the bank, because it is impossible to compete with Facebook stable currency in overseas business.

Facebook has created a payment system outside the central banking system. At the same time, Libra, the stable currency issued by it, is only a channel or a carrier medium. By joining 100 joint founding companies, Facebook can create a huge business empire integrating payment, banking and commerce. They constitute a large commercial network, and other companies only Can eat wreckage outside the network. This is also the reason why if Facebook succeeds in issuing coins, it will become the world's largest bank (but without a bank license). This huge cross-border competitor will make all the big traditional banks that understand it shudder, because Facebook will Transferring large amounts of money from the bank deposit system to the Libra network may also be used for large capital flows that banks are not aware of. This means that the bank is in some business such as payment and transaction costs. Revenues such as loans will be significantly reduced, and bank lunches will shrink. At present, the banking industry strictly controls all matters related to capital market transactions to prevent outsiders from joining. This barrier will be wiped out before Facebook's cross-border robbery.

(5) What impact will the stable currency have on commercial banks in the economic crisis?

According to the IMF, the stable currency is a digital legal currency, so it is behind the national credit, while the commercial bank deposit is behind bank credit, relying on the deposit insurance system to ensure limited security. Therefore, the rational economic person will choose the digital currency-type stable currency, which will cause “ Narrow Banks – Due to the digital nature of digital currency, bank deposits may be transferred to digital legal currency quickly and on a large scale in the event of a financial crisis. Bank of England Deputy Governor Broadbent expressed concern at the earliest in 2016. In particular, once interest is paid on a stable currency, stable currency and commercial bank deposits will form an alternative and competitive relationship.

(6) What challenges does the stable currency pose to business and the central bank?

Stabilizing coins have created new commercial competitiveness, which comes from liquidity, trading speed and regulation. In Libra, for example, even countries outside the United States do not allow people to use Libra to purchase local goods, but because people outside the US can still use Libra to purchase US goods, as long as they have a Facebook account, their purchase speed will depend on network protocols and regulations. The speed of compliance. As a result, this creates a significant advantage for stores and suppliers in the United States, so as long as there are a large number of US stores accepting Libra, businesses outside the US can only accept Libra to increase their competitiveness (and they can exchange Libra on exchanges). USD or local currency). But once foreign suppliers accept Libra, the country's legal currency is suppressed and the country's central bank will be affected. Each time the Libra transaction is followed by the dollar. In other words, Libra has won an important step for the dollar in world currency competition, so Libra is a tool for the dollar, which is done by commercial competition, not by military or political.

The logic is as follows:

1. A large number of US stores accept Libra as currency;

2. Non-US stores only accept Libra, otherwise they cannot trade with Libra customers;

3. Foreign stores accept Libra as the payment currency, and local currency is suppressed;

4. If a large number of local stores accept Libra, the domestic currency is greatly affected;

5. National monetary policy will be difficult to implement because most economic activities are affected by Libra, while Libra is affected by the subsequent currency and is not affected by local monetary policy.

The above description of the stable currency will affect the market, and at the same time will affect the national currency.

The digital currency will suppress the French currency as a warning issued by the IMF on September 30, 2017, when the IMF also proposed that the digital currency would massively subvert the world currency and financial markets. Even the absence of legitimate digital tokens (such as bitcoin) affects the legal currency of weak countries, so the IMF encourages global central banks to issue their own digital legal currency. In 2019, Zhou Xiaochuan, the former central bank governor of China, also said, "From the trend of recent years, many institutions are trying to establish such a more global currency. At that time, there will be problems of strong coins eroding weak coins. This is a challenge for our RMB and foreign exchange management.” If there is no legal bitcoin that can affect the weak country, the legally compliant stable currency such as Libra will definitely hit the world with many legal coins, especially those that are almost impossible. Or the legal currency of developing countries that are unable to obtain banking services at all (this is also the target that Facebook clearly targets). In fact, 40% of the world's population does not have active bank accounts, although they are easy to use. Backed by a legal currency similar to the World Bank/IMF SDR currency, consumers in developing countries are expected to use Libra stabilized coins in large quantities.

(7) What impact will the stable currency have?

Libra has not discussed win-win development with countries all over the world. Instead, it uses the 2C model to directly allow consumers in various countries to trade in stable currencies. As mentioned above, consumers in many countries, especially developing countries, expect to use Libra stable coins in large quantities. When this spreads around the world, the world economic system has changed.

This is the new hegemony. China has this concept very early, and there have been hegemonic powers in the Spring and Autumn Period (Spring and Autumn Five). The digital currency hegemony has not yet appeared, but it has developed in this direction, and unlike the Spring and Autumn Five, the relevant countries have not used force or political pressure, but through peaceful commercial activities. The starting point of this idea is the concept of the digital currency (2015) proposed by the Bank of England. In September 2017, the IMF extended it to currency competition (and issued serious warnings to central banks). Later, (2018) the United States dominated by pure commercial activities. Today, Libra, which Facebook is preparing to issue, is a commercial economic activity with no military or political activities and is a digital currency hegemony.

I remember that when I described the IMF's speech in September 2017 several times, some pre-readers said that the speech exaggerated the impact of the digital currency. It may be because the IMF was confused at the moment and suggested deleting it. But from the frequent conferences and talks that Libra has recently triggered, and the anxiety of some institutions, the IMF's speech at the time did not exaggerate the words, but rather hit the nails and predicted the situation today. After all, the IMF is not a project party for issuing money. It does not need to exaggerate the “white paper” to attract investment and speculation. The IMF has seen the huge impact that digital technology can bring to the world in the formal market.

This is a world-wide turmoil caused by the power of science and technology and the power of united finance. Only by relying on science and technology and the transformation of financial thinking can we cope with this big storm. It is too optimistic to be able to cope with this storm in a short period of time. If it can be handled so easily, it is not the “massive subversion” pointed out by the IMF. It needs the long-term planning of the country as a whole, including currency and finance. All aspects of technology, education, and education, the author has pointed out in an interview after attending the multinational central bank conference in London in 2016, because this is a structural or systematic revolution ("revolution" is the chief scientist of the United Kingdom in January 2016 The noun used to evaluate the blockchain) is not a cosmetic change. Structural changes require a long time to accumulate. If the "massive subversion" that the IMF says is correct, then the currency competition has just begun, and it may be more surprising in the future. Facebook events can be resolved in a short time using a tactical approach, but without strategic planning, emergency events will have to be dealt every few years. Long-term follow-up of foreign technology will not be the strategic layout of China's new economy? These are all foreseen at the multinational central bank meeting in London in 2016.

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Cai Weide

Beihang Digital Society and Blockchain Lab, Tiande Technology, National Big Data (Guizhou) Comprehensive Experimental Zone Blockchain Internet Lab, Tianmin (Qingdao) International Sandbox Research Institute, CCID (Qingdao) Blockchain Research Institute , China Asia Economic Development Association Blockchain Industry Professional Committee

Jiang Xiaofang

Ph.D. student of Beihang University of Computer Science, Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), member of Beijing Financial Analyst Association

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