What hidden information is there in the research on the development trajectory of BAYC and Milady?

Hidden information in BAYC and Milady's development trajectory research?

Most NFTs in the market, including Bored Ape, have been experiencing continuous declines, but the $10,000 PFP collection Milady has been bucking the trend. To identify potential winners, it is important to observe the trends in unique ownership and listing quantity.

Bored Apes (and most NFTs) have been experiencing continuous declines. Many people have suffered significant losses.

However, there is a $10,000 PFP collection that has been defying this trend and continuously rising – that is Milady.

So, how do we identify potential winners in this bleak market situation?

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Here are some insights to share:

It is evident that Bored Ape and Milady are on different trajectories. Bored Apes have been experiencing continuous declines and have dropped to 23 ETH, a decrease of over 50%.

People attribute this to the miners of Blur: as BLUR mining airdrops became less enticing, they have been selling off their inventory.

On the other hand, Milady has been a shining star. After a period of stagnation, it achieved a 50% price increase this month.

The ownership tells the story of two trends.

The common view is that higher-priced special NFT ownership implies scarce supply held by whales, who are often speculators rather than long-term holders.

Bored Apes have enjoyed higher unique ownership for most of 2022, staying above 60%.

At first glance, this may seem positive, but since early 2023, the number of unique wallets has been declining, which is a worrying development.

@miladymaker started with a lower base, with unique ownership around 30%, but it has been steadily increasing since February 2023 and currently stands at 36%.

At first glance, a low percentage of unique ownership may seem unfavorable for the price, but in the long run, the actual situation is different.

Listings provide another interesting perspective.

In the past 90 days, the number of listings for Bored Apes on OpenSea has increased by 70% (from around 300 to now 500+).

Usually, listings indicate a stronger intention of NFT owners to sell.

In contrast, the number of NFT listings for Milady was relatively high in May (over 900), but has been declining since then.

The number of NFTs listed for sale has decreased by 45%, to around 500 today.

The number of NFT listings for both Bored Ape and Milady is roughly the same, but the trends are completely different.

So what is the overall situation? Ownership and listings provide clues about the price trends of NFT collectibles, just like tea leaves:

The percentage of unique owners and the number of NFT listings are not so important because each project has different dynamics.

Comparisons at a single point in time are not very effective; it is most important to focus on trends.

An increase in the percentage of unique ownership + a decrease in the percentage of listings = a positive signal for prices. Conversely, the opposite is also true.

Of course, it is not 100% accurate, but it is worth keeping in mind as a necessary reference!

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