May lose $ 3.1 billion in revenue in one year, Kraken's latest report thinks halving could hurt mining
There are still three months left before Bitcoin's third halving, and the entire cryptocurrency community is worried about how the price of Bitcoin may change after this big event. For some time, many narratives have revolved around the same theme; while some have argued that the price of Bitcoin will adjust as it halves, many are opposed.
The latest report from cryptocurrency exchange Kraken analyzes previous Bitcoin halvings and proposes a halving forecast for 2020. According to the report, history shows that a bull market trend has occurred around the halving event. It pointed out that the previous two halvings indicate that the price of Bitcoin experienced a 2-year upward trend in the 12-18 months before the halving, followed by an approximately 80% peak-to-valley downward trend.
The attached chart shows the relative price peaks from the top half to the bottom half. It can be seen that after the first halving in November 2012, the price reached $ 1,151 in December 2013 almost a year after the halving event. Similarly, after a second halving in 2016, the price reached $ 19,499 in 2017, and the Bitcoin peak will reappear almost half a year after the halving event.
The report also estimates that global mining will lose $ 3.1 billion in annual revenue after halving due to a 50% reduction in supply, provided that the price of Bitcoin continues to hover around $ 9,300, adding that halving in May will reduce bit Annual supply of coins, the inflation rate fell from 3.7% to 1.8%.
Similarly, the report says,
"The Bitcoin code specifies a downward trend in inflation until the total supply reaches 21 million Bitcoins in 2140; however, by 2032, 99% of Bitcoins will be minted.
Interestingly, many celebrities in the community have commented on Bitcoin's performance over the past few months.
Binance CEO Zhao Changpeng said in an interview that the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise in the future. He explained that historically, the halving of Bitcoin's block reward had a positive impact on the price of the token.
In fact, contrary to Kraken's report, he said:
"Half halving should have several different effects. Historically, halving will have a positive effect on prices. But historical events may not predict future events, so don't take it literally."
The Chief Strategy Officer (CSO) of CoinShares Meltem Demirors pointed out that after halving, the price of Bitcoin is likely to rise.
However, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz pointed out in a recent interview that BTC has the potential to reach or even exceed its all-time high of $ 20,000 with May's overall reward halved.
Some investors also speculate that the upcoming halving could boost prices to $ 90,000 or more. Fundstrat's Tom Lee also believes that after halving, BTC may be pushed up by 100% in 2020.