Observation | Blockchain concept stocks have now achieved speculative bubble-related business revenue of only 10%
Source: Finance and Economics · Chain Finance
At the end of 2019, with a series of favorable policies, the concept of blockchain began to be hot. Many A-share listed companies have begun to announce their blockchain layout. According to public data, within a few days, Oriental Fortune's blockchain concept stock has surged from over 80 to nearly 200.
On the day of October 28, more than 100 blockchain concept stocks rose daily. Since then, in response to the changes in the stock prices of multiple blockchain concept stocks, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have sent inquiry letters asking the transaction stocks to explain whether there is a "blockchain hotspot" behavior.
However, the inquiry letters from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges did not curb this blockchain boom. An analysis of the nearly 200 concept stocks that Oriental Fortune includes includes energy, medical, entertainment, technology, and payment.
According to Caijing.net's on-chain financial statistics, so far, of these nearly 200 listed companies, very few companies have actually implemented technology and products, and only a handful of companies have achieved revenue by relying on blockchain business.
In the secondary market, blockchain concept stocks have already seen huge speculative bubbles.
Only 10% of revenue earners are still in the proof-of-concept stage
According to the financial network and on-chain financial statistics, of the nearly 200 blockchain concept stocks that Oriental Fortune has accepted, only 20 of them have explicitly stated that the blockchain business has generated business orders or revenue, accounting for 10%. . Of the 20 concept stocks that have achieved revenue, 20% are listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the remaining 80% are listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
They are: Guangyi Technology (SZ: 300356), Yi Jian Shares (SH: 600093), Far Light Software (SZ: 002063), Jinzheng Securities (SH: 600446), Hanwei Technology (SZ: 300007), Precision Information (SZ: 300099), Sifang Jingchuang (SZ: 300468), Evergrand Technology (SZ: 002808), Xinchen Technology (SZ: 300542), ChinaSoft Technology (SZ: 002453), Caixun Shares (SZ: 300634), Herren Technology (SZ: 300550), Neusoft Group (SH: 600718), Guangdian Express (SZ: 002152), Jincai Interconnection (SZ: 002530), Donggang Stock (SZ: 002117), Ping An of China (SH: 601318), Ai Kang Technology (SZ: 002610), Zhongjia Borchuang (SZ: 000889), Zhongqingbao (SZ: 300052).
The concept stocks of the blockchain business that have not yet achieved revenue can be roughly divided into two cases. One is that the blockchain business is only its internal business, and the main purpose is to improve the original business of the group and not operate externally; The other is that no actual product has landed or is still in the proof-of-concept stage, so revenue cannot be achieved.
Take SF Holdings, ICBC and Bank of Jiangsu as examples. All three blockchain technologies have been applied to their original actual business, but no large-scale external sales and cooperation have occurred, so no actual income can be counted as a result of this.
According to statistics, among the blockchain concept stocks that have not realized revenue, more than 50% of the relevant business operations of the blockchain concept stocks are still in the proof-of-concept stage.
Take Jinglan Technology, Zhongke Jincai, and Kaiying Network, which have been selected into the "Blockchain 50 Index" as examples. So far, these three stocks have gained a lot in the secondary market due to the concept of the blockchain. After October 24, the above three stocks have risen and stopped daily due to the favorable policies of the blockchain, and have reached recent highs.
Prior to the "10.24 Speech", Jinglan Technology rarely had any news related to the blockchain. On the evening of October 27, Jinglan Technology issued an announcement saying that its subsidiary, Haonongyi E-Commerce Co., Ltd., independently researched and developed, has independent The "Blockchain Agricultural Production Traceability System" of intellectual property rights has been filed through the National Internet Information Office. Some media interpreted it as "Beijing Blue Technology joined the concept block of the blockchain quickly" under the blockchain air.
While Zhongke Jincai started to pay attention to the blockchain field in 2016, the progress is still at the research stage. There is no public information showing that Zhongke Jincai already has related products or applications in the blockchain field. Kaiying Network, which entered in 2017, is currently in the "starting research stage".
Generally small revenue scale has limited impact on total revenue
Of the 20 listed companies that have achieved revenue, 12 only indicated to the public that they have related orders or that they have achieved revenue, without specifying the scale of their revenue. Of the eight companies that have announced revenue, three have reported revenues of less than one million, of which 66,600 yuan are easily visible shares, about 169,000 yuan from Quartet, and 850,000 yuan from Zhongqingbao.
The remaining 6 high-light software, Hanwei Technology, Precision Information, Xinchen Technology, and Zhongjia Bochuang have blockchain revenues of 11 million yuan, 5-8 million yuan, 1.957 million yuan, 4 million yuan, and 50 million yuan.
On January 10, 2018, Xinchen Technology mentioned in the announcement of abnormal fluctuations in stock trading that the amount of blockchain-related contract orders signed by the company so far is about 4 million yuan.
On August 29, 2019, Yuanguang Co., Ltd. released the financial report for the first half of the year. The financial report showed that the operating income of blockchain and artificial intelligence was 16.259765 million yuan, accounting for 2.57% of the operating income, and the research and development cost was 5.58 million yuan.
In April 2019, accurate information released a risk alert announcement. The announcement showed that the company's blockchain business has only realized revenue of less than 5 million yuan since 2016, accounting for a very small percentage of the company's revenue. The 1.957 million yuan realized in 2018, according to the 2018 performance report, this revenue accounted for about 0.41%, which has little impact on the annual performance. In the future, such business income is not expected to have a significant impact on performance.
However, it is worth noting that, except for Xinchen Technology, Yuanguang Co., Ltd. and accurate information, the remaining two companies did not announce their earnings through financial statements.
Among them, Hanwei Technology ’s announcement channel is a media interview. On October 28, 2019, Hanwei Technology related persons told the Securities Times: In recent years, China Dunyun has continued to have blockchain business orders across the country and the business model has basically taken shape. , With the foundation of promotion and replication. Currently implemented projects cover digital asset trading, supply chain management, education, Internet of Things, e-government and other application areas, involving a total amount of about 5-8 million yuan (2018-2019), business expansion is smooth, and the growth trend is obvious.
The announcement platform of China Jiabochuang is an investor interaction platform.
On October 28, 2019, Guangdian Express said in response to investors' questions: Changshi Communication, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, was engaged in the construction and maintenance of professional computer room participation in the blockchain in 2018, and has already achieved it in 2018. Income scale of about 50 million or more.
However, this information was not disclosed in Guangdian Express' financial report.
Based on the blockchain business of the above 20 companies, it can be known that although some companies have achieved stable revenue, the proportion of blockchain business in their main business is still small, and the impact on overall performance is minimal.
Speculative bubbles in the market
According to the analysis, there is not much innovation in the selection of the direction of the blockchain business by the blockchain concept stocks, but it is consistent with the overall environment and is rooted in its own traditional business to extend. The role of blockchain technology for these companies It is more about improving the efficiency of the original business than opening up new areas.
But it is undeniable that these enterprises have gained huge profits in the secondary market because of the new blockchain concept. However, combined with the analysis of specific indicators, we can see that the current concept market of blockchain stocks has been seriously overvalued.
According to the financial network and on-chain financial statistics, of the 20 listed companies that have achieved revenue, 16 companies have a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 28, of which Neusoft Group is as high as 751.7, Guangyi Technology is 583.98, Sifang Jingchuang, Huasoft Technology and Ai Kang Technology has also exceeded one hundred; one company's price-earnings ratio is between 21-28; one company is between 14-20; one is between 0-13; one is losing money.
It can be seen that in the current concept market of blockchain, the value of stocks is generally seriously overestimated, and the market has experienced serious speculative bubbles.
And this phenomenon does not only exist in these 20 companies. According to the financial network and on-chain financial statistics, of the nearly 200 blockchain concept stocks accepted by Oriental Fortune, 126 have a price-earnings ratio of more than 28, accounting for about 64%; Concept stocks with negative price-earnings ratios exceeded 11%.
In terms of amplitude during the year, 90% of the 20 stocks had amplitudes exceeding 100% within 52 weeks. The concept stock with the largest amplitude was Sifang Jingchuang, which reached 283.51%. The concept stock with the smallest amplitude during the year was Ping An of China, which was 50.50%.
Some companies involved in illegal business have huge profits
In the context of the fast-growing concept of the blockchain, some companies with dire revenues and eager to raise funds have begun issuing coins in violation of the rules in an attempt to “cut” life-saving funds in the currency market.
According to the financial network and on-chain financial statistics, Chenxin Technology, Fengfeng Group, Aoma Electric and 2345 have all involved in some illegal business.
Among them, Chenxin Technology, Fengfeng Group, and 2345 have all taken the road of "hardware mining."
At the end of 2017, Chenxin Technology officially launched Battle Cloud. During the "first generation of Battle Cloud" pre-sale, Chenxin Technology's stock price soared by nearly 80%, reaching a maximum of 8.68 yuan.
With the "first generation competition cloud" bonus exhausted, Chenxin Technology quickly changed its strategy. After the launch of Battle Cloud 2.0, a BATT (Bure Chain Token) exchange channel was introduced to allow users to use GCP points to exchange BATT at a certain ratio. BATT was launched on the AllCoin and BCEX exchanges in June 2018. It is understood that BATT is now renamed to PONY. PONY can act as a currency function by purchasing goods. GCP can also pay directly with the RMB through second-hand websites such as Xianyu.
The upgraded version of Battle Cloud not only helps Chenxin Technology to sell hardware to make money, but also replaces fiat currencies with "currency", which has attracted a number of speculators in the currency circle. On August 31, 2018, Chenxin Technology released the semi-annual report for 2018, and the data showed that the company realized operating income of RMB 208,408,900, a year-on-year increase of 42.77%.
In December 2018, Fengfeng Group (SZ: 300431), which suffered heavy losses on sports broadcasts and VR, announced that it has begun to enter the blockchain field, and launched a mining hardware similar to Thunder, Stormwind Cool Cloud.
According to official information, “Storm Cloud” is a new business module incubated by Storm Group, a home theater smart terminal launched by Storm Image, based on Storm Video ’s P2P network and blockchain technology architecture, to provide users with a video experience. Also earn BFC points.
According to public reports, in December 2018, Stormwind Kuyun was sold for the first time at 4,999, and the first 2000 units were sold out within 5 minutes. Since then, the stock price of Stormwind Group (SZ: 300431) has risen and fallen for two consecutive trading days.
Whether it is Chenxin Technology or Fengfeng Group, the currency dilemma of the parent company has not been reversed after the issuance of the coin. Compared with this, relying on "hardware mining" to indirectly issue a coin to turn a profit into a profit is very "lucky".
In March 2018, the octopus planet was launched on February 3, 435. Through "mining", octopus planet users can get a type of points called STC.
Although 2343 has publicly denied disguised ICOs and stated that no ICO operations will be performed. However, STC finally launched two digital currency exchanges, Coineal and Biclub.
On February 25, the latest performance report released by 2345 showed that due to the steady growth of the business, the company's unaudited net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2018 was 1.365 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.07%.
Different from the general route “route mining” of other listed companies, the way of issuing coins by Omar Electric is “currency reform”.
Public information shows that on August 4, 2018, the QOS project was launched as the first currency in FCoin's "Coin Reform Pilot Zone"-Mainboard C Zone. On the first day of trading, the daily limit was opened, but after that, the daily limit fell for two consecutive days. By the fourth day, the QOS currency price had plummeted by 85%.
There is an inextricable relationship between Aoma Electric and QOS. According to the Daily Economic News report, most of the QOS project team has the background of listed company Omar Electric. For example, Zhang Zhe, co-founder of QOS, was the deputy general manager of Aoma Electric, and co-founder Wang Yining once worked at Wallet Financial Services (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Wallet Financial Services), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. Currently, Zhang Zhe, Wang Yining and Zhou Haijing are serving in Digital Wallet (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Digital Wallet), a joint stock subsidiary of Aoma Electric. In addition, the QOS project has two consultants, one is Zhang Jian, the founder of FCoin, and the other is Zhao Guodong.
According to the QOS white paper, Kaoma, digital wallet, wallet car, and Changzhi Bank are all “QOS” partners.
Since then, Omar Electric issued an announcement saying that after verification, the above personnel's participation in the QOS project is their personal behavior, and the company's controlling and participating companies have not participated in the QOS project. Zhao Guodong's personal behavior as the consultant of QOS project is not related to the company. But this statement has not been endorsed by QOS investors.