Opinion: The size of the market determines the success or failure of Bitcoin

The secret that is well known in the currency circle: the so-called wealth freedom is nothing but a plunder , telling the Roman power class how to use force to conquer and power to seek rent to extract wealth. The secret of wealth is not only that, monopoly has the same exaggeration to make wealth Capacity, huge scale of economic achievements, one batch after another, a lot of businessmen.

Bitcoin was born ten years ago, from nothing worthwhile, to the skyrocketing in 2017. After the plunge in 2018, the total market value of the entire cryptocurrency remained at 1.2 trillion yuan. Compared with the total market value of gold, it can be described as a gross profit. The dollar market value, pay attention to the dollar, not the yuan).

Why is the outside world always singing bitcoin? The biggest reason is that the bitcoin plate is too small, and it does not cause too much turmoil in the financial market, and it does not attract much attention.

The significance of futures

For Wall Street, bitcoin is just a group of people who are dissatisfied with the fact that they have made the heretical rules under the financial rules. At the beginning, Wall Street even dismissed it and never looked at it.

Concepts have always been used in the process of transformation. As Bitcoin continues to hit a spike in the past decade, Wall Street financial predators can't sit still. In 2017, Chicago CBOE and CME two futures markets were launched, hitting the highest bitcoin history. At a price of $20,000, large institutions have joined the battlefield.

Since the bitcoin market, there has been a large-scale heavy-duty short-selling bitcoin. After hitting the highest level in history, it has been venting all the way in 2018. The lowest price is $3,200. Later, some analysts analyzed that the institutions of the futures market were shorting bitcoin. The market after the big bull market is quiet.

However, the fact we need to understand is:

First, at present, government legislation has many restrictions on Bitcoin, and large institutions cannot mobilize large funds to enter the market.

Second, because the market size is relatively small, funds can't be deployed.

I said before that the Bitcoin ETF passed the time issue, not only the affirmation of the development prospects of the blockchain technology, but a large part of the reason is due to the greed of Wall Street. They are more anxious than anyone else. Once they smell the money, They will be tempted by the wind, and they have been lobbying the government to pass the futures market. Now they will also lobby the government to try to pass the ETF so that they can raise funds from the retail market into the bitcoin market.

Prior to this, Wall Street has always been unable to see the deeper reason for the cryptocurrency market. The reason is that the market value is too small. The entry of large funds will lead to an infinite rise in the price of coins. The funds of large institutions are not an order of magnitude. The market value of billions of dollars is very suitable for value investment targets. The scale is constantly too large. The expected increase is at least ten times or even 100 times. If the scale is too large, they might as well go back to play gold.

Wall Street will dominate the encryption market


Now the encryption market is a guerrilla war, and it is the carnival of the coin dealer. In the future, the encryption market is a plain war, and the pricing power will be handed over to Wall Street.

At that time, Wall Street will continue to introduce more financial instruments, such as derivatives, Bitcoin derivatives trading volume will be huge to overwhelm the trading volume of Bitcoin, reviewing the history of Wall Street, whether it is gold, silver and oil, can basically According to the picture.

Judging from this, the risk factor of investing in Bitcoin is relatively low today, and the market size has reached several hundred billion US dollars, which is suitable for a configuration of investment preservation. The magnitude of the increase is considerable and the potential benefits are huge. Because the big fund of the upcoming ETF does not allow a big plunge, if Wall Street can't control the pricing power, their institutions can't raise funds from retail investors. The Wall Street fund invested by retail investors is seeking stability.

If the large institutions don't raise funds, they will certainly be surrounded by the currency funds and will be harvested.

An era of no family

Not only is Wall Street today, but the case of the US financial tycoons who manipulated the market is also endless.

In the book "Great Game", the dual-standard monetary policy of the American Civil War gold and green banknotes, due to the law of bad money expelling good money, caused gold to disappear from the circulation field immediately.

Gradually evolved into a gold speculation:

1. At that time, the government stipulated that those contracts that must be used for gold performance can also be executed with equivalent green notes.

2. The real gold supply in the market is very scarce.

3. Gold is used as a means of payment in important daily business activities.

Merchant Gould smelled the taste of money, tried the leverage of gold trading, to achieve a small amount of money to control the gold traded in the market, forcing the gold shorts to close the position.

Because New York traders need to receive payment for a period of time after delivery: gold, even more worrying is the decline in long-term gold prices, traders are generally habitually buying one-month long-term gold put options, in the far The fall in gold is to make up for the loss.

It is now the hedge, the gold trader is equivalent to the hedge fund in the Civil War.

At that time, the leverage of the gold trade was very high, even 100 times. Gould had a good chance to buy out hundreds of millions of dollars of gold in New York at just the multi-million dollar.

However, he needs to ensure that the gold in the government vault does not participate in market transactions. Because the government's gold reserves are huge, it is easy to stabilize the rise in gold prices.

Gould first approached the then US President Grant by means of means, and made the whole of Washington believe that the government did not interfere with the gold market.

Gould finally achieved this goal through bribery and interest temptation. Then Fisker bought a large amount of gold in the market. Because it bought out all the gold, when the traders had a long-term delivery, they found that there were no gold sellers on the market. The price of gold rose from 138 US dollars per ounce to a rapid rise to 160. Dollar. Many short-selling traders went bankrupt for a moment. When the asking price of 160 US dollars was a few times, with a broker's "I sell", the price of gold fell and returned to a reasonable price of 140 yuan. A funny gold manipulation case came to an end, and the gold operation directly led to the return of the US to the gold standard ten years later.

This kind of manipulation of the price of gold is not uncommon, the early US financial predators can manipulate a certain type of goods, and now it is Wall Street's turn to bitcoin.

In fact, short-term is a good thing, because those speculators are familiar with the financial market, can easily manipulate the media to create momentum, while lobbying Congress, a two-pronged approach, the cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin will be brought to the public's vision just around the corner.

In the long run, it is fatal to retail investors. Why do you say this?

Let's assume that the future market value of Bitcoin will reach the market value of several trillions. What will happen? What is certain is that all price fluctuations are between the big institutions and the big funds. The participation of retail investors is low and unprofitable. The need for retail participation has been lost. If you stay in the market, you will definitely It was murdered and smashed into the soul of Wall Street.

The lessons learned from the past, in the past gold market will continue to happen in Bitcoin.

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