QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin halved, history will not simply repeat (1111)

Abstract: Yesterday, the market has risen and then fell back. The bitcoin is relatively weak. In the next six months, Bitcoin is likely to usher in a halving similar to 2012, but the increase will be relatively small (similar to 2016).

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 11, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,737.561 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +1.96%, the total turnover was 518.792 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +19.81%. The market activity has obviously rebounded. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12,653.30 points, a 24-hour up-and-down of +1.89%, reflecting a rebound in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 92.61 points, and the 24-hour price was -0.19%. The relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market was slightly Weakened; the Alternative sentiment index was 40, a slight increase from yesterday (39), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market capitalization (excluding USDT), XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (+4.07%), and XRP had the largest decline in 24 hours (-0.15%). USDT has risen and fallen to -0.45% in 24 hours. The current net outflow of funds today is 37.506 million yuan, which is higher than yesterday. USDC has risen and fallen to -0.29% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 3,074,800 yuan, compared with yesterday. Reduced; ChaiNext USDT off-market discount premium index reported 99.99, 24 hours up and down -0.02%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 81) rebounded slightly from the previous value (peak 79), approaching a one-month average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), South Africa (44), Austria (43), Ghana (42), Germany (42), Switzerland (42) and Cyprus (38). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 69) increased slightly from the previous value (peak 67), approaching the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

The blockchain will be halved in May next year, which is one of the important factors affecting the trend of the Bitcoin market in the coming period (about one year). Historically, Bitcoin completed a halving of block awards in November 2012 and July 2016, respectively, and a significant increase and retreat phase occurred some time before and after halving (about 1-3 months). History does not simply repeat, because objective conditions cannot be reproduced one by one. The following is a comparative analysis of supply and demand conditions.

Before the first halving (2012-05 to August 2012), there was a clear rise, and in the first half of the year (January 2012 to May 2012) there was a sharp correction after the big increase. . Correspondingly, the indicator MVRV reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand in the secondary market (the larger the value, the greater the imbalance between supply and demand), from 1.40 in January 2012 to 1.02 in May 2012, and then to 2.34 in August 2012. .

Before the second halving (2016-02 to June 2016), there was also a clear rise in the market. In the previous half year (December 2015 to February 2016) there was a smaller correction phase. Correspondingly, MVRV, which reflects the supply and demand of the secondary market, fell from 1.56 in December 2015 to 1.23 in February 2016, and then rushed to 2.16 in June 2016.

A retracement phase has occurred before this halving (0719 to 2019 November), and the MVRV indicator has come to 1.55. Will there be a similar upswing afterwards? From the point of view of this callback, it is similar to the sharp correction after the 2012 surge, but it may take several months to complete the stage bottoming (similar to March 2012 to May 2012). From the perspective of the balance of supply and demand in the secondary market, Bitcoin is still in the rising stage before the mad cow market (MVRV usually will be around 5) in the big cycle, but it has already reached a position similar to 2015 (MVRV indicator 1.5). The halving of this wave is likely to be less than the increase in 2012 (similar to 2016).

In short, the halving of block rewards is a major positive in the supply side, especially in the context of constant demand growth or global interest rate cuts, Bitcoin is expected to come out of a wave of rising prices in the next six months.

First, the spot BTC market

In the early hours of the morning, BTC began to fall back after a small volume of $9,100. It is now showing signs of stabilization after a drop of $8,800. From a small cycle point of view, the stage bottoming may take a while (1-3 months), and then there may be a wave of rising prices.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 9687.503 million. Among them, the over-single (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow was 20,189,600 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow was 19,152,100 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 44,523.10 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 4,842,046 yuan. Although the market is short, the main force is currently divided, and the current share of purchases has increased significantly.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 97.54EH/s, which was higher than the previous day. It was close to the one-month average, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. The number of active addresses on the chain is 554,000, which is significantly lower than the previous day, close to one month low. Point; the trading volume on the chain was 660,500, which was a decrease from the previous day, which was a low of nearly one month; the number of coins destroyed in the currency was 1,175,500 (small historical value), which was lower than the previous day, and the long-term upward trend was not damaged. .

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, ETH rose slightly from 185 US dollars, and today it reached a maximum of 191 US dollars. After that, it fell, but there was no obvious heavy volume. The ETH/BTC trading continued to fluctuate slightly in the low position, and the short-term relative performance was slightly weak.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 155,588,600 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 6,706,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 2,951,400 yuan, and the medium (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 725.04 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 79.330 million yuan. There are certain differences in the market.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp decreased slightly. Game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 2.5k, 24-hour change -13.83%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.2k, 24-hour change +4.17%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24-hour active users The number is 1k, 24 hours change +0.20%.

Third, the spot LTC market

In the early hours of the morning, LTC short-term ($60) up ($66) pin, and then reduced the amount; now it is around 60 dollars, the relative performance is slightly weak.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 227,786,400 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 577.529 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 6,073,800 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 13.215 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 189.3015 million yuan. The market as a whole is short, but there is a divergence in the flow of funds.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 178.28TH/s, a slight decrease from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (45,800) has dropped from the previous day, approaching a one-month low; the number of currency days destroyed is 10.0961 million (historically small), and the long-term trend has not been destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Today, with the market down yesterday, the short-term performance is slightly stronger.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 62,795,700 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 7,754,700 yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 2,894,700 yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 30,000 yuan. The outflow of 4,196.85 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 12,613,320 yuan. There are a lot of markets, but there are big differences, with a small net inflow.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has slightly rebounded. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2.2k, which is +21.21% change from yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of the trading application Newdex is 1k, which is +1.07% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 776, which is different from yesterday. +35.43%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is good, and it is currently in the stage of partial retreat (the probability is coming to an end). The mad cow market is likely to come in the next one to two years, and it will increase the position. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin returns to the 200-day moving average, and those who do not have a strong position are bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Back support can be used for small positions and low suction.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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