QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin miner fled, miner's crazy indicators need to be reversed (0318)

Abstract: Today's broader market has declined, trading volume has dropped significantly, and the USDT over-the-counter premium rate has continued to fall. Recently, it is still affected by the global capital market, and it is difficult for the market to get out of the trough in a short time. Recently, the computing power of Bitcoin has dropped significantly, and the miners' escape behavior has been obvious, but the market value of Bitcoin has increased rapidly. The crazy index of miners has hovered around -0.4, and it is urgent to reverse the bottom.

At 15:00 today, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 7495.81 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -0.44%, reflecting a decline in the broader market; the total turnover was 8205.29 yuan, a 24-hour change of -24.83%, and market activity was significantly reduced. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 94.26 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 1.12%. The relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has weakened; the Alternative sentiment index is 11 (previous value 8), and the market sentiment is expressed as extreme fear; The over-the-counter discount premium index was reported at 102.94, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -1.36%, and the USDT over-the-counter premium level significantly decreased.

Analyst perspective:

Under normal circumstances, the price of Bitcoin and the computing power of the entire network show a positive correlation: the expected increase in the price of Bitcoin, prompting miners (or equipment) to continue to join (or invest), making the computing power of the entire network constantly increase; The expectation of the continuous decline in the price of coins has prompted miners (or equipment) to withdraw (or stop) continuously, causing the network's computing power to continue to decline. However, when the market price or computing power approaches ultra-high or ultra-low levels, a reversal often occurs, and a change in computing power and price changes will show a negative correlation in the short term. Because the behavior of miners is lagging, and the computing power of the entire network is on the rise for a long time, the lagging of changes in computing power is more obvious during the price decline.

The proportion of Bitcoin's market capitalization is also significantly related to price changes. This is related to Bitcoin as a safe-haven attribute of the crypto asset market: When the market price of crypto assets continues to rise, market sentiment tends to be greedy, and funds will tend to altcoins with a small market value, which will often make Bitcoin's market value account When the asset price continues to fall, market sentiment tends to be scared, and some funds will use bitcoin as a safe haven, which will often increase the market value of bitcoin. Therefore, the calculation of the correlation coefficient of computing power using Bitcoin's market value as a substitute for the price can better capture the mood change of the entire crypto asset market.

The miner crazy indicator, created by Tokengazer, uses the market value ratio to replace the price, and calculates the correlation between the 90-day market value ratio and the computing power of the entire network. This indicator is usually used to measure the degree of blind behavior of miners in the market panic or greed. It can be found that when the correlation coefficient between the market value of bitcoin and the computing power of the entire network is lower than -0.6 or higher than 0.6, the possibility of reversing the market value of bitcoin is greater. Near the top of the bull market in January 2018, bitcoin's market value accounted for a maximum of 32.39%, after which the shock rose. So far, there have been five more obvious reversals, and the corresponding miner's crazy indicator has also appeared five more obvious reversals.

According to QKL123 data, the current miner's crazy indicator is around -0.4, which is near the lower end of the early warning. The recent continuous decline of Bitcoin has caused some miners to flee, the Bitcoin computing power has declined significantly, and the indicator of miner madness has shown signs of reversal; on the other hand, market sentiment is extremely unstable, and the market value of Bitcoin is still volatile It takes a while to digest. In addition, combining the MVRV and coin hoarding indicators, the market is nearing the bottom range. If the subsequent miner's crazy indicator significantly reverses, it can prove that the bottom range is out.

First, the spot BTC market

Today, BTC has not continued its upward trend, or is limited by the liquidity of the global capital market. It will not go out of the bottom range at once, and it will take a long time for the market to suffer. In the near future, it may be driven by the news and continue to fluctuate.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH hasn't settled in the area where the US $ 120 chip concentration is concentrated. Recently, the overall trend of downward convergence has shown a downward trend.

Third, the spot BCH market

BCH is still hovering in the 176-dollar chip concentration area. I am afraid that it will be suppressed by the broad market in the short term, and it will be linked to Bitcoin.

Fourth, the spot LTC market

The amount of LTC can continue to shrink. Today it began to deviate from the chip concentration area, began to oscillate for a short time, and began to test the support of $ 33.

V. Spot EOS Quotes

After EOS rebounded, it did not stand on the $ 2 chip concentration area and began to weaken in a short time. It may test the previous day's low of $ 1.7.

Six, spot ETC market

ETC completed the second block reward production cut yesterday, but has not stood firm at $ 4.6 since then, and is currently retreating to support.

Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is bad, but the price is not far from the bottom, it is a good time for Tun Coin to invest. You can refer to the coin storage indicator. The smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, and ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2. Midline (January to March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for Bitcoin to get out of the bottom in a short period of time, and those with small positions intervene in batches.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Dig a bit, wait and see.

Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin in the market. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely fearful" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

6.BTC-coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39. %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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