QKL123 market analysis | Change soon, Bitcoin explores $ 9,000 again? (0723)

Abstract: Today BTC continues to explore another $10,000, long and short, and the market is uncertain, and market uncertainty is increasing. In the short-term, the BTC has a high probability of bottoming at $9,000, and the market tends to change time. From the historical comprehensive performance, the long-term volatility of BTC remains unchanged.

According to QKL123 statistics, on July 23, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,953.774 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -3.11%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 369.246 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed – 0.74%, 24-hour market activity slightly decreased. The market value of BTC accounted for 64.97%, and the market value of ETH accounted for 8.29%. The market risk aversion is still high, but it has continued to decline in recent days.

At 11 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), TRX fell the most in 24 hours (-8.01%), BNB increased the most in 24 hours (+0.19%); BTC rose in the 24-hour period -3.19%, LTC 24 Hourly rise and fall -5.52%, ETH 24 hours up or down -3.73%, EOS 24 hours up or down -5.60%. The USDT's 24-hour up/down was +0.42%, and the 24-hour turnover rate was 4.21%. The over-the-counter capital inflows increased from yesterday.

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The Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 14,879.70 points, up 24 hours to -3.17%; alternative.me sentiment index was 40, slightly lower than yesterday (42), market performance is still fear. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend is basically the same as yesterday, below the average of the past seven days.

Analyst's point of view: Recently, the risk aversion of funds is still high. Today, BTC explores another 10,000 US dollars. There are signs of change in the short term, the market uncertainty increases, and attention is paid to the direction.

First, the spot BTC market

24H highest: ¥71532.46 24H minimum: ¥70389.40

Yesterday, BTC dropped a small amount of 10,000 US dollars, after which the amount can be gradually reduced, and the probability of change is gradually increasing. In a short period of time, BTC is likely to continue to test the strong support level of $9,000, and it is also possible to attack $11,000, and the market uncertainty will increase.

Fund face

As of 13:44, the net outflow of BTC funds today was 776.23 billion yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net outflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 374 million yuan, the net outflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 152.5 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 249.23 million yuan. The market continued to lighten up, mainly based on large orders.

Yesterday, the number of BTC coins destroyed was 486.24 (lower historical value), which was significantly lower than the previous day (599.27 million), and the chain movement continued to decrease. Recently, there are no giant whales outside the field to concentrate on selling pressure, and the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

2. Fundamentals

The next block reward halved countdown estimate: 282 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 65.01 EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (65.68 EH/s), still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 663,200, a rebound from the previous day (526,700), close to the three-month low. At present, the BVR valuation relative indicator MVRV has recovered to 2.0, and the market supply and demand imbalance still exists, requiring price space and time adjustment to digest. In a short period of time, the space for further exploration still exists, and the market is uncertain.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): Currently in the short-term partial adjustment stage, the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years, and can open positions on dips.

Mid-line (January-March): The short-term shocks will adjust the situation unchanged, and the downside risks and downside space will be small, and it can be used to open positions or rallies to lighten positions.

Short-term (1-3 days): Market uncertainty increases, and opportunities move. Resistance is $11,000 and support is $10,000.

Second, the spot ETH market

24H highest: ¥2736.14 24H minimum: ¥1500.82

Combined with indicators such as MACD, ETH and BTC have similar trends. Currently, they are in a long-term and tight-fitting state. They may change the disk in a short time and continue to wait for the BTC to choose the direction.

Fund face

As of 14:01, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 107.63 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net outflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 196,600 yuan, the net outflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 39.51 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 68.32 million yuan. There are fewer market differences, mainly based on small orders.

At present, the ETH/BTC transaction is subject to short-term fluctuations around 0.0211 BTC, and the volume can shrink. In the short term, it is necessary to wait for the market confidence to recover (the signal of rising volume), and ETH has the potential to perform relatively strong.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of game encryption heroes (2,780) increased or decreased by +1.46% compared with yesterday, the number of 24-hour active users of video application Livepeer (173) increased or decreased by -1.14% compared with yesterday; the total hourly flow of pledge by DAI (2,980 ETH) increased or decreased by +0.45% compared with yesterday, the 24-hour total flow of trading platform IDEX (2,649 ETH) increased or decreased by -3.86% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions of stable currency Paxos Standard (1,078) increased or decreased from yesterday 2.08%.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The ETH 2.0 project of the smart contract platform is in the process of advancement, and it is expected to step out of the independent market in the future.

Midline (January-March): Downside space is limited, and positions can be opened on dips.

Short-term (1-3 days): The market is uncertain, and the opportunity is moving. Resistance is $230 and support is $190.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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