QKL123 market analysis | Look at the degree of price deviation through these two indicators (1129)

Abstract: Since yesterday, the broader market has continued to fluctuate, mainstream currencies have rebounded slightly, and net capital inflows have slowed. By observing the indicators, it can be found that there is a certain downside risk in the current Bitcoin price trend, but there is still a large room for upward price repair in the short term, and it is in an oversold state in the long term.

According to QKL123 data statistics, at 13:00 on November 29, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,468.814 billion yuan, the Babbitt Composite Index was reported at 10340.11 points, and the 24-hour rise or fall was + 0.27%, reflecting a slight rebound in the broader market; total transactions The amount was 449.556 billion yuan, the total turnover changed by -4.53%, and the market's activity declined. The Bitcoin strength index reported 97.80 points, and the 24-hour price fluctuation was -0.33%. The relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has weakened slightly. ; Alternative sentiment index is 31 (previous value 32), market sentiment is still fear.

Among the top ten crypto assets by market value (excluding USDT), EOS has the largest increase in 24 hours (+ 0.52%), and XLM has the largest decrease in 24 hours (-0.40%). USDT's 24-hour rise and fall was + 0.11%, and today's net inflow of funds was 65.704 million yuan, a decrease from the previous value; USDC's 24-hour rise and fall was + 0.02%, and today's net capital inflow was 7,826,600 yuan, a decrease from the previous value; The ChaiNext USDT OTC Premium Index was reported at 99.96, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -0.03%.

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In the past day, the relative value of Google search (peak 67) of global Bitcoin dropped significantly from the previous value (peak 77), which was close to the median value of one month. The top seven countries in terms of popularity are Nigeria (100), Austria (48), Germany (47), Switzerland (44), South Africa (43), Netherlands (41) and Slovenia (40). In the past day, the global Google search relative value (peak 69) of Ethereum was the same as the previous value (peak 69), close to the one-month average.

Analyst perspective:

There are two indicators to observe the degree of price deviation: Mayer Multiple indicator and VWAP indicator.

The Mayer Multiple indicator is the ratio of the Bitcoin price to its 200-day average and is used to reflect the current degree of Bitcoin price deviation from long-term trends. Looking at the chart above, the Mayer Multiple indicator in the past mostly hovered around 1. Among them, when the Mayer Multiple indicator> 1, the larger the value, the greater the deviation from the long-term trend, and the more serious the market is overbought; when the Mayer Multiple indicator is less than 1, the smaller the value, it indicates the long-term trend. The greater the degree of deviation, the more serious the market is oversold. At present, the Mayer Multiple indicator is around 0.75, which is close to historical lows. In the long term, it has been oversold.

The VWAP indicator, called the volume-weighted average price, is weighted according to the volume of the price within a certain period of time. The specific calculation method is to multiply the price by the corresponding volume and then sum it, then divide it by the total volume, and finally get the ratio VWAP. Observing the above chart, the current Bitcoin price is approaching the 360-day VWAP and long-term VWAP, and it is seriously deviating from the VWAP values ​​on the 30th, 90th, and 180th days, which indicates that the price in the overall trend has the risk of further downwards, The price has a lot of room for upward repair. First, the spot BTC market

Today, BTC's heavy volume fell slightly, the lowest reached US $ 7,500, and the highest reached US $ 7,400, after which it contracted and increased. At present, there are signs of stabilization near US $ 7,500. Recently, continue to observe the market's short-term repair situation, pay attention to the direction of volume and attention to the support below 7,300 US dollars.

Funding side

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 665.2827 million yuan. Among them, the net outflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 113,942,600 yuan, the net outflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 31,850,100 yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) had net outflows. Outflow of 226.5003 million yuan, small orders (below 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 29298.87 million yuan. The market has consistently turned short, with net outflows of retail funds mostly.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 700,400, which was a decrease from the previous day and was close to the one-month average; the transaction volume on the chain was 763,900, which was a decrease from the previous day and was close to a one-month low; the number of coin days destroyed was 2.719 million ( The historically smaller value) is close to a one-month low; the average BTC hashrate of the entire network is 102.42EH / s, which is a sharp rise from the previous day. It is close to a one-month low, and mining faces losses, but as prices rebound, miners trample on The risk has been reduced.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH was inserted downward for 149 US dollars for a short period of time, after which it rose slightly, mainly in short-term fluctuations. Yesterday afternoon, the address of the stolen ETH of Upbit took some action. It may be concentrated on the trading platform in the near future, and pay attention to the risk of short-term trading.

Funding side

As of 15:00, today's net outflow of funds from ETH was 89.358 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 22.7161 million yuan, the net outflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 19.18600 million yuan, and that of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) The inflow was RMB 94.173 million, and the net outflow of small orders (under RMB 50,000) was RMB 18705.90 million. The market is quite divergent and the main players are bullish, but the net outflow is mostly small.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has declined. The number of 24-hour active users of the game application My Crypto Heroes is 3k, which varies by -13.00%; the number of 24-hour active users of the financial application MakerDAO is 1.8k, which varies by -39.73%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC is slightly weaker than BTC. Today, a short-term downfall of 46 US dollars and a contraction shock, and short-term weak linkage BTC.

Funding side

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 26,792,811 yuan. Among them, the net outflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 62,310,300 yuan, the net outflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 19.339 million yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) Outflow of RMB 12.025202 million, small orders (under 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 66.037 million yuan. The market is consistently bearish, with net outflows in most single orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain (57,600) increased slightly from the previous day and was lower than the one-month average; the number of days of destruction of the currency was 11.8785 million (smaller historical value), which was slightly higher than yesterday. The average LTC network computing power is 150.28 TH / s, which is a decrease from the previous day. It hit a one-month low and approached the year's low. The extended monthly average continued to fall. On August 05, the computing power decreased after the block reward was halved. At present, there is no sign of recovery. There is a possibility that it will break the trough at the beginning of the year, and the risk of stamping out is greater.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Yesterday to date, the EOS contracted slightly to US $ 2.6 and then rose slightly. It continued to contract and fluctuate, and the risk of short-term change is greater.

Funding side

As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 81.35757 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 314,400 yuan, the net outflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 10.2051 million yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) were net inflows. Outflow of RMB 62,722,700, small orders (below RMB 50,000) net outflow of RMB 9,392,200. The market is slightly bearish, with the majority of net outflows of Chinese single orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined. The number of 24-hour users of the game EOS Dynasty is 1.2k, which is -9.22% change from yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of the trading application Newdex is 885, which is -3.49% from yesterday.

V. Analyst Strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC has begun to deteriorate. If the market rebounds and weakens, those with heavy positions can reduce their positions on rallies, and those without heavy positions can choose to vote. The relative price of BTC of smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, and DPoS leader EOS is close to the year's low. Those with heavy positions can reduce their positions on high prices.

2. Midline (January to March)

Bitcoin has been repaired after it deviated from the 200-day moving average. Those with heavy positions can lighten up on rallies, and those without heavy positions wait and see.

3． Short-term (1-3 days)

After a short-term shock or continued upside, backed by support, small positions attract low and sell high, and break stops.

Appendices-Interpretation of Indicators

Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Comprehensive Index (8BTCCI) is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global blockchain market, in order to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin's competition in the market. It is used to measure the change in the relative price of Bitcoin to a package of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger Bitcoin is in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely scared" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5. Google search trends

This refers to the Google web search data results. The relative search value in the specified time and area: the hottest score is 100, the hottest score is 50, and the insufficient data is 0. Note: The higher the score of a country, the higher the search term in all local search terms, and it does not mean that the absolute search times are greater.

6.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow of funds when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow when falling.

7.Coin days destroyed

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days that Bitcoins are held. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. Classification of the number of days of BTC coin destruction: 100 million or more is the maximum value; 50 million to 100 million is the larger value; 10 million to 50 million is the median value; 10 million or less is the smaller value value. Classification of the number of days of destruction of LTC coins: a maximum value of 500 million or more; a larger value of 100 million to 500 million; a median value of 50 million to 100 million; a smaller value of 50 million or less

8.Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses where transactions have occurred in the on-chain addresses of the blockchain. Under normal circumstances, this indicator can reflect the on-chain activity level of a public chain. Off-chain demand activities such as secondary market transactions and wallet usage will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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