QKL123 market analysis | Looking forward to digital asset regulatory compliance, Hainan Province strives to be the first demonstration zone (1203)

Abstract: In recent days, the market has continued to adjust after the market has continued to fluctuate, and the overall price has declined. However, it has not stepped out of the relatively concentrated range of chips, and has short-term uncertainty. For digital asset transactions, Hainan Province strives to stay ahead, indicating that the pace of domestic regulatory compliance is accelerating, which is also in line with global development trends, which will benefit the crypto asset industry in the long run.

According to QKL123 data statistics, at 13:00 on December 3, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 14,325.71 billion yuan, the Babbitt Composite Index was reported at 1,070.93 points, and the 24-hour rise or fall was -1.21%, reflecting a rebound in the broader market; total transactions The amount was 420.634 billion yuan, the total turnover changed by -6.35%, and the market's activity declined. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 98.32 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 1.04%. The relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has become stronger. ; Alternative sentiment index is 28 (previous value 28), market sentiment is still fear.

Among the top ten crypto assets by market value (excluding USDT), LTC has the largest decline in 24 hours (-3.09%), and BCH has the smallest decline in 24 hours (-0.29%). USDT's 24-hour rise and fall was + 0.03%, and the net outflow of funds today was 14,531,173 yuan, a decrease from the previous value; USDC's 24-hour rise and fall was -0.10%, and today's net inflow of funds was 10.85227 million, a reversal from the previous value; The ChaiNext USDT over-the-counter premium index was reported at 100.36, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 0.08%.

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In the past day, the global Google search relative value of Bitcoin (peak 63) dropped slightly from the previous value (peak 59) and was close to a month's median. The top seven countries in terms of popularity are Nigeria (100), Ghana (48), Austria (42), Germany (41), Switzerland (38), South Africa (38) and Estonia (33). In the past day, the global Google search relative value (peak 71) of Ethereum has increased from the previous value (peak 61), which is close to the one-month average.

Analyst perspective:

According to reports, on December 01, at the Hainan International Offshore Innovation and Demonstration Demonstration Zone Construction and Blockchain · Digital Asset Trading Technology Innovation High-end Forum, the Director of the Local Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau of Hainan Province said that Hainan will introduce a "regulatory sandbox" mode. The deputy governor of Hainan Province expressed the hope that Hainan will become a national blockchain research and application demonstration center and a national digital asset trading demonstration area.

It is understood that after Huobi (Huobi China) entered the Hainan Ecological Science and Technology Park in October 2018, OKEX (European Group) entered the Hainan International Offshore Innovation and Entrepreneurship (Sanya) Experimental Zone, becoming the second number settled in Hainan Asset trading platform. Among them, Eurotech Group has reached a strategic cooperation agreement with the Sanya government to establish a blockchain offshore digital asset trading laboratory in Sanya.

Previously, there were rumors that "regular troops will enter the field after the bandits have passed." I did not expect things to change a little bit faster. Although the regular army did not actually enter the field, from the information point of view, the possibility of subsequent entry is very high. At present, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Germany have successively launched many compliant digital asset trading platforms, and digital asset compliance supervision has become overwhelming worldwide. Regulatory compliance is the foundation for the long-term development of the crypto asset industry. Whether it is viewed globally or domestically, this is a long-term benefit that is implicit.

First, the spot BTC market

Recently, BTC fluctuated slightly around 7,300 US dollars, which is a relatively concentrated range of chips, and continued to shrink and fluctuate. A short-term brewing change, or will continue to attack, the daily line still has the possibility of getting out of the head and shoulders.

Funding side

As of 15:00, BTC's net inflow of funds today was 2,189,029,200 yuan. Among them, the net outflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 29.886 million yuan, the net inflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 1,130,515,500 yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) were net inflows. The inflow was 238,877,600 yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (under 50,000 yuan) was 1,038,560,000 yuan. The market is quite divergent, with most of the net inflow of Chinese single funds.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 730,700, an increase from the previous day, higher than the one-month average; the on-chain transaction volume was 863,900, which was an increase from the previous day, and was lower than the one-month average; the number of currency days destroyed was 6.732 million (Historical value), close to a one-month low; the average BTC hashrate of the entire network was 94.79EH / s, which was a slight increase from the previous day. It was close to the one-month average, and some mining machines lost money, but as the price stabilized The miner's stepping risk has been reduced.

Second, the spot ETH market

At present, ETH has reached a shock adjustment of around $ 150, and the address of the stolen ETH of Upbit has begun to be transferred to the trading platform. The market has a certain selling pressure for a short time, which is slightly weaker than BTC.

Funding side

As of 15:00, today's net outflow of funds from ETH was 57.898 million yuan. Among them, the net outflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 19.4759 million yuan, the net inflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 13.543 million yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) The inflow was 26.396 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (under 50,000 yuan) was 78.369 million yuan. The market is quite divergent, with small single net outflows mostly.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity level of the 24-hour ETH DApp has picked up. The number of 24-hour active users of the game application My Crypto Heroes is 3k, with a 24-hour change of + 1.18%; the number of 24-hour active users of the guessing application is 1k, with a 24-hour change of -1.18%; the number of 24-hour active users of the financial application MakerDAO is 297, 24-hour Change + 53.09%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Relative to BTC, the performance of LTC is obviously weak, and it is currently oscillating at 45 US dollars, and the short-term weak linkages BTC.

Funding side

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 133,628,800 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 15.592 million yuan, the net outflow of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) was 2.181 million yuan, and that of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) Outflow was RMB 89.761 million, and small orders (below RMB 50,000) had a net outflow of RMB 57.406 million. There are differences in the market, with the majority of Chinese single net outflows.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain (53,100) decreased slightly from the previous day, and was close to a one-month low; the number of destruction of Bintian was 18.612 million (smaller historical value), which was slightly higher than yesterday. The average computing power of LTC is 166.80TH / s, which is slightly higher than the previous day, and is close to the low point of the year. On August 05, the computing power decreased after the block reward was halved. At present, there is no sign of recovery. There is a possibility that it will break the trough at the beginning of the year, and the risk of stamping out is greater.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

At present, EOS is shrinking and oscillating around USD 2.6, and the risk of short-term change is greater.

Funding side

As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 82.17 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 6.278 million yuan, the net inflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 13,75,500 yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) Outflow of 380,300 yuan, small orders (under 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 27,869,200 yuan. The market is severely divided and the main players are bullish. Most of the funds are small net outflows.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp dropped slightly. The number of 24-hour users of the game EOS Dynasty is 971, which is + 1.68% more than yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of the trading application Newdex is 844, which is -31.60% compared to yesterday;

V. Analyst Strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC has begun to deteriorate. If the market rebounds and weakens, those with heavy positions can reduce their positions on rallies, and those without heavy positions can choose to vote. The relative price of BTC of smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, and DPoS leader EOS is close to the year's low. Those with heavy positions can reduce their positions on high prices, and those without heavy positions can choose fixed investment.

2. Midline (January to March)

Bitcoin has been repaired after it deviated from the 200-day moving average. Those with heavy positions can lighten up on rallies, and those without heavy positions wait and see.

3． Short-term (1-3 days)

After a short-term shock or continued upside, backed by support, small positions attract low and sell high, and break stops.

Appendices-Interpretation of Indicators

Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Comprehensive Index (8BTCCI) is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global blockchain market, in order to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin's competition in the market. It is used to measure the change in the relative price of Bitcoin to a package of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger Bitcoin is in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely scared" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5. Google search trends

This refers to the Google web search data results. The relative search value in the specified time and area: the hottest score is 100, the hottest score is 50, and the insufficient data is 0. Note: The higher the score of a country, the higher the search term in all local search terms, and it does not mean that the absolute search times are greater.

6.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow of funds when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow when falling.

7.Coin days destroyed

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days that Bitcoins are held. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. Classification of the number of days of BTC coin destruction: 100 million or more is the maximum value; 50 million to 100 million is the larger value; 10 million to 50 million is the median value; 10 million or less is the smaller value value. Classification of the number of days of destruction of LTC coins: a maximum value of 500 million or more; a large value of 100 million to 500 million; a median value of 50 million to 100 million; a smaller value of 50 million or less.

8.Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses where transactions have occurred in the on-chain addresses of the blockchain. Under normal circumstances, this indicator can reflect the on-chain activity level of a public chain. Off-chain demand activities such as secondary market transactions and wallet usage will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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