QKL123 market analysis | OTC transactions that cannot be ignored, different regions (1016)

Abstract: Yesterday, Litecoin first fell, and the market fell back in the early morning. Bitcoin continued to wash, and the trend of the altcoin was weak. The amount of bitcoin trading in over-the-counter trading is difficult to count, but the amount can not be ignored, and in the past year, there has been a trade-off in some countries.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 16, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,613.48 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -1.67%, the total turnover was 398.582 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +5.16%. Market activity has increased. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), EOS had the largest decline in 24 hours (-4.76%), and BSV had the largest increase in 24 hours (+7.41%). The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11444.13 points, a 24-hour rise to -1.92%, reflecting the market's decline.

The Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 92.81 points, with a 24-hour up/down +0.70%, indicating that the relative performance of Bitcoin in the overall market was slightly stronger; the Alternative sentiment index was 40, slightly higher than yesterday (39), and the market sentiment remained fear. The USDT has risen and fallen to +0.38% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 16.59.82 million yuan, which is opposite to yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Discount and Premium Index is 99.97, which is up to -0.11% in 24 hours.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 70) dropped significantly from the previous value (peak 100), approaching a one-month low. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (50), South Africa (40), Germany (37), Austria (36), Cyprus (34) and Brazil (34). In the related query, the local bitcoin search volume ranks first, which may be related to the recent maintenance of the LocalBitcoins platform. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 93) has fallen back from the previous value (peak 75), approaching a one-month low.

Analyst's point of view:

In general, you can classify the transaction types of encrypted assets into two types: on-floor transactions and over-the-counter transactions (OTC). In recent years, with the increasing market value of crypto assets, especially in the case of poor legal currency channels, the market share of over-the-counter transactions has been increasing. According to incomplete statistics, the current OTC transaction volume is about two to three times that of on-floor transactions, but in fact, such transaction data is more difficult to count. In the future, I believe that more institutional investors and family funds will enter the encryption assets, and these two types of customers will often choose OTC bulk transactions, because over-the-counter transactions can often improve the convenience of transactions, but also provide better anonymity. Sex and safety.

Currently, the industry's largest over-the-counter platform for cryptographic assets is LocalBitcoins, which was founded in Finland in June 2012. According to Coin.Dance data, the weekly trading volume of the platform in the past few weeks ranged from 5000 BTC to 6000 BTC, which was a sharp drop from the beginning of the year (between 12,000 BTC and 15000 BTC), but the transaction amount did not change significantly. Mainly due to the rebound in bitcoin prices. In the past six months or more, the transaction amount of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Venezuela, Mexico, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Poland, Kazakhstan, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea has increased significantly, while the transaction amount in the United States (about 10% to 20%) but there has been a significant reduction, the overall performance has changed. Among them, the growth in the countries and regions of South America and Africa is mainly related to the high inflation or the sharp depreciation of the French currency in various regions.

First, the spot BTC market

In the early hours of the morning, BTC short-term upward ($8,360) down ($8090) was the main dishwashing action. At present, the price trend is weak, but the daily-level MACD indicator has signs of bottom deviation, and short-term attention to the direction of energy.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 62,432,800 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 45.844 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 577.183 million yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 40,941.10 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 22,689,100 yuan. The market has a large net outflow of medium-sized funds.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 95.68EH/s, which was higher than the previous day, close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 503,000, which is lower than the previous day, close to three. The low point since the month; the trading volume on the chain was 481,200, which was higher than the previous day and was close to the low point of one month; the number of coins destroyed in the day was 14.855 million (historical median), which was significantly lower than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend was not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

In the early morning, ETH lowered the needle by 176 US dollars and fell back. There was no significant heavy volume during the period; the ETH/BTC trading pair fell slightly, and the short-term performance was slightly weak.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 275,908,400 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 6.0427 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 37.99 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 147,754,000 yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 84,202,800 yuan. The market is mostly net outflows.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp decreased slightly. Game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 3k, 24 hours change +1.08%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 2.7k, 24-hour change -3.16%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24 hours active users 955, 24 hours change -1.85%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Yesterday, LTC took the lead in the decline of the mainstream currency, accompanied by a small amount of heavy volume, the lowest rebound to 53 US dollars, while LTC / BTC down pin, short-term performance from weak to strong.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 138,093,800 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 71.165 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 1569.02 yuan, the net outflow (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) 826,700 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 81.5916 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, LTC's overall network computing power averaged 264.38TH / s, slightly lower than yesterday, close to the low point of six months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power will decline and it will take some time to recover. However, if the continuous innovation is low, there is a risk of stamping. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (86,800) was significantly higher than the previous day, higher than the one-month average; the transaction volume on the LTC chain (256.13 million) was significantly lower than the previous day, close to the monthly average; the number of coins destroyed (911.66, historical comparison) Small value), the possibility of long-term trend being destroyed is small.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

In the early morning, EOS fell slightly in volume, reaching a minimum of 2.85 US dollars. The current rebound is not strong, and it fluctuated slightly around 2.9 US dollars, showing short-term weakness.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 2,221,270 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 4,475,200 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 5,511.6 thousand yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 37.654 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 25,305,300 yuan. There is a divergence in the market, with a net outflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp declined slightly. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2.9k, which is -2.69% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 2.2k, which is +4.26% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users using Newdex is 1.8k. Yesterday's change was -15.60%; the number of 24-hour active users of data application Lumeos was 1.2k, which was -0.25% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS faucet EOS is close to the low of the year and can be configured separately.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to make a short-term bottom-up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Not yet out of the wide range of shocks, continue to wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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