QKL123 Quote Analysis | Short-term disk is constantly being tested; how will Bitcoin evolve in the future? (1113)

Abstract: Bitcoin continued to test upwards and downwards yesterday. The amount and magnitude of the market's shocks are shrinking, and the possibility of short-term changes is increasing. Encrypted assets such as Bitcoin are naturally friendly to the Internet economy (or digital economy), and believe that "Digital Gold" Bitcoin will have an important position.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on November 13, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 170.358 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -0.14%, the total turnover was 473.962 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -2.81%. Market activity has declined slightly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12391.64 points, up 24 hours to -0.30%, reflecting the market's decline; the Bitcoin strength index was 92.14 points, 24 hours up +0.12%, bitcoin's relative performance in the entire market slightly Stronger; the Alternative sentiment index was 38, a slight decrease from yesterday (39), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-1.49%), and BNB had the largest increase in 24 hours (+2.67%). The USDT has risen and fallen to -0.01% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 1,834,300 yuan, which is lower than yesterday. The USDC has risen and fallen to -0.09% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 4,506,800 yuan, compared with yesterday. Reduced; ChaiNext USDT off-market discount premium index reported 99.93, 24 hours up and down to +0.13%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 80) has fallen back from the previous value (peak 92), approaching a one-month low. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (49), South Africa (41), Germany (39), Austria (38), Switzerland (37) and the Netherlands (29). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 68) dropped significantly from the previous value (peak 100), approaching the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

What role will Bitcoin play in the future? This is a question worthy of constant attention from value investors. Let us look for some clues from the long history to perceive the possible evolution of the future.

First, review the history of the payment medium (or currency). In the long history of China's 5,000 years, the payment medium has evolved from a barter to a precious metal (generally equivalent), and then from a precious metal to a legal coin (coin, banknote, and digital currency). Among them, the precious metal can be said to be suitable for the natural economy at that time by virtue of its natural scarcity and metal characteristics, and the legal currency is endorsed by the state credit (political economic status) to adapt to the great development of the commodity economy. In the early days of the Internet economy, various payment media, such as early Q coins, game coins, etc., as well as various types of encryption assets and legal digital currencies, have emerged.

The essence of money is credit. In the history of American currency, in the 1930s and 1960s, a large number of banknotes or coins were endorsed by private organizations. At that time, there was a fierce debate on whether to issue banknotes or metal coins. At that time, the US President publicly issued a banknote issue. Finally, the National Bank Law was enacted to achieve the centralized distribution of banknotes. In the last century, the legal currency of the world's major economies has undergone an iterative process from accepting the gold standard to abandoning the gold standard. Once the legal currency is out of the risk of excessive over-issuance of precious metals such as gold, the credit crisis caused by it will increase. The more serious it is, such as some countries in Africa and Latin America.

Bitcoin is the product of the credit crisis in the legal currency (the 2008 financial crisis), and crypto assets such as Bitcoin are naturally friendly to the Internet economy. Although Bitcoin has not yet become a mainstream trading medium, with the iterative upgrade of technology and the continuous improvement of the ecology, it is believed that it will be accepted by more and more organizations in the future era of Internet economy (or digital economy). , does not bear the name of "digital gold."

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, BTC continued to oscillate around $8,700, short-term needle test for $8,900, and down-pin test for $8,500, after which the amount and amplitude were further shrunk, and the possibility of a change was increasing.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 86,277,500 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 145,375,500 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 174,433,000 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 30,000 yuan. The inflow was 148.190 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 42484.50 million yuan. Today's market is consistently bullish, with net inflows of small single funds mostly.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 97.38EH/s, which was slightly higher than the previous day. It was close to a month high and the long-term uptrend was unchanged. The number of active addresses on the chain was 638,200, a slight decrease from the previous day, lower than One-month average; the trading volume on the chain is 936,200, a slight increase from the previous day, close to the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed in the day is 5,252,900 (historically smaller), which is higher than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend has not been damaged. .

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, ETH shrinks down to 182 US dollars and continues to return to the vicinity of 186 US dollars shock, the daily line to see the amount and amplitude further shrink, or brewing changes; ETH / BTC trading continues to fluctuate slightly, short-term upside Possible.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 2,251,031 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 698.30 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 29.746 million yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 61.76 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 126.770 million yuan. The market has been more consistent, with a net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp decreased slightly. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.7k, 24 hours change -16.11%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.3k, 24 hours change +2.63%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24-hour active users The number is 1k, 24 hours change +0.10%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Yesterday, the LTC shocked down, and there was a small increase in the downside to $60. After that, it stood back to $61, which was relatively weak for a short time.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 35,303,300 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 149.99 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 2,163,100 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 10,092,400 yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 80,992,100 yuan. The market was bearish, but there was a divergence and the outflow of funds slowed down.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 187.02TH/s, a slight increase from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (85,400) was significantly higher than the previous day, close to a one-month high; the number of coins destroyed was 16.17 million (historically small), and the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

The EOS linkage continued to fluctuate within the range, and did not fall below the recent lows after the downswing. The possibility of short-term changes is increasing.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 161.4456 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 16.57 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 10.51 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Inflow of 44.731 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 179.903 million yuan. There are certain differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp continues to decline, which is related to the recent network congestion (caused by EIDOS airdrop). The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 1.7k, which is -15.23% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users of the trading application Newdex is 856, which is -15.00% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 458, which is different from yesterday. -8.03%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial retreat. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin returns to the 200-day moving average, and those who do not have a strong position are bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

The possibility of short-term change is greater, and the wait-and-see is dominant.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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