What is the actual impact of the “Development of Bitcoin Mining” by the National Development and Reform Commission? Different opinions in the industry

Caijing.com reported that the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue (2019, Draft for Soliciting Opinions)", which was included in the third category of elimination categories. Paragraph 6 of the "(18) Others" category of the "Lost Production Process Equipment".

The production process of virtual currency, together with “tourism activities exceeding ecological carrying capacity”, “hazardous cyanide plating process”, “small incinerators that do not meet the current national standards”, etc., are classified as not in compliance with the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Law. National laws and regulations such as the Law on Prevention and Control of Water Pollution, Energy Conservation Law and Safety Production Law do not meet the mandatory standards of national safety, environmental protection, energy consumption and quality, and are not in conformity with the requirements of international environmental conventions.

Under the category of the phase-out category, but in the note: “The year in the brackets after the entry is the phase-out period. The phase-out period is January 1, 2021, which means that it should be phased out before January 1, 2021, and so on; , according to the plan to eliminate; the items of the unscheduled elimination period or the phase-out plan are the national industrial policies have been explicitly eliminated or immediately eliminated."

As this item has not been marked with a phase-out or phase-out plan, according to this consultation draft, the “virtual currency 'mining' activity” is one of the items that have been explicitly eliminated or immediately eliminated by the national industrial policy.

The "Draft for Comment" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission triggered a hot discussion, "Bitcoin mining will be eliminated" once ranked 10th in the microblogging hot search list.

In the past two days, there are two main points in the industry:

1. Although it is included in the “elimination” capacity, the “Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue” is still in the stage of consultation and consultation, and it is not yet known to realize the industry elimination execution cycle that guides relevant participants to withdraw from the “mining” business. . Therefore, at this stage, the regulatory level is more focused on releasing the “elimination” signal instead of actually implementing it.

Some insiders told the financial network that before the "Draft for Comment", the regulatory level has released similar signals more than once.

It is reported that at the beginning of 2018, the Office of the Leading Group for the Special Remediation of Internet Financial Risks under the State Council issued a notice requesting local governments to actively guide enterprises within their jurisdiction to order the bitcoin mining business in an orderly manner. Subsequently, Ordos City, a prefecture-level city under the jurisdiction of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, took the lead in responding and issued relevant notices, requiring all district governments to take multiple measures, taking comprehensive measures such as electricity price, land, taxation and environmental protection to guide the relevant “mining” enterprises to withdraw in an orderly manner.

The industry believes that the current signal release does not directly affect the development of the mining industry unless explicitly prohibited.

According to the Securities Times, in response to the "Draft for Comment", Jianan Zhizhi and the relevant person in charge of the Bitland Public Relations Department said that they had no material impact on the company's operations.

2. For a long time, especially before the acceptance and approval of the mainstream field, there is a gray area for the actual impact of virtual currency mining on the environment. Although more than a year has passed since the last release of the “elimination” signal, the regulatory level remains stuck in virtual currency mining with high energy consumption, security risks and deviations from the real economy.

Previously, in the Internet Financial Risk Special Remediation Work Brief (No. 53), Pan Gongsheng, the deputy governor of the central bank and the leader of the special group for the remediation of Internet financial risks, said in his work deployment: “The National Financial Work Conference explicitly requires that restrictions be deviated from the entity. The economy needs and evades the 'innovation' of supervision. Therefore, pseudo-financial innovations that are not related to the real economy should not be supported. In the next step, measures should be taken to comprehensively adopt measures such as electricity price, land, taxation and bad insurance to guide relevant enterprises. Orderly exit."

And the briefing mentioned in the case of the virtual currency 'mining', the relevant provincial and municipal rectification offices believe that the 'mining' industry has no relationship with the real economy and consumes a lot of energy. Some enterprises have hidden dangers of Anjin, some enterprises Enjoy preferential policies on local electricity prices, land and taxes in the 'big data industry' package.

In this regard, the mining industry and other people familiar with the encryption industry have put forward different views. They believe that the mining industry can fully utilize the idle power resources that are rich in energy but difficult to use effectively, and solve the employment opportunities in poverty-stricken areas. .

For example, Liu Chang, the founder of Zhimi University, said in accepting the Odaily Planet Daily that “the most damaged areas are poor areas with abundant domestic power resources but difficult to export. From this perspective, the NDRC’s policies are unwise, but they It’s just acting according to established guidelines and lacking a full understanding of the cryptographic economy.”

Laibit Mine Pool CEO Jiang Zhuoer had a similar view in an interview with Mars Finance. He said that bitcoin mining is a pollution-free, abandonment of water into dollars in the case of serious water and electricity abandonment in Sichuan and other places in China. Wonderful industry, and the export of bitcoin can increase the country's foreign exchange earnings. In addition, mining has created a large number of employment opportunities in the fields of chip design, mining machine production, transportation, operation, maintenance, power supply, etc., and increased the income of people, power stations and power grids in the border areas of Sichuan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. These are obvious benefits.

Therefore, it may reflect that there is a certain cognitive difference between policy makers and market status.

For the impact of the regulatory wind direction on the power consumption of the mine, the miner Colin3 told the financial network that the impact on the small and medium-sized mines is small, but it will definitely affect the large power supply units and large mining users. Because of the huge capital, there are more problems to worry about. Moreover, not all mining uses idle power. This regulatory policy comes out, regardless of whether the mine is only using the local idle power resources, especially for large mines, which previously enjoyed electricity prices and land. And the benefits of taxation and other aspects are likely to have a great impact. At the same time, he also believes that the relationship behind big capital is flexible, and there are many variables.

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